Three on Thursday - AI Investment is Booming, But So Are Imports
The buildout of data centers to power artificial intelligence (“AI”) has quickly become one of the largest infrastructure investment booms in U.S. history. In this week’s “Three on Thursday,” we use newly released gross domestic product (“GDP”) data for the second quarter of 2026 to measure just how significant those effects have been. To better understand what’s happening beneath the headline numbers, click the link below.
Click here to view the full report: https://t.co/TqXjd5T82n
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📊 7 of 8 major fixed income indices we track are sitting at time series price lows amid surging yields.
The one exception: leveraged loans, up from 96.96 to 97.52 since March as a floating rate asset class.
Fed hiked to 4.00% this month. Year-end implied rate: 4.26%, up from 3.05% at the start of the year. CPI at 3.4%.
In our view, this environment continues to favor floating rate exposure.
🔗 https://t.co/CU6qplxVc7
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Treasury buybacks have historically managed liquidity.
Could they now be used to help contain interest rates? 🏛️📉
Gibson Smith calls it a new frontier in yield curve management.
📺 https://t.co/ytf4c6SVd3
🎧 https://t.co/QfBqISAskk
#Treasury#ROIPodcast#FirstTrust
📊 Week Ended September 25, 2026 - S&P 500 +1.23% on Iran diplomacy hopes. Info Tech led at +3.13%. Utilities fell -3.12%.
5-yr Treasury above 5% for the first time since 2007. 30-yr hit 5.49%, highest since 2004.
Moderna rallied 29.11% on the week, now up 574.40% YTD, the second-largest gainer of the year.
Consumer sentiment hit a 4-month low on higher gas prices and inflation expectations.
🔗 https://t.co/LPBkRiQMsS
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*References to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell and should not be assumed profitable.
📊 10-yr Treasury at 5.23%. In our view, the national debt is a big reason why.
Net interest on the debt is set to top $1.0 trillion this fiscal year, more than U.S. military spending. That is 3.3% of GDP, the highest on record since WWII.
Unlike the 1980s and 90s, there is no clear path back down. Entitlement costs have risen from 6% to 9% of GDP.
We are not predicting a crisis, but the debt burden is pushing toward a breaking point.
🔗https://t.co/3zOhAXU5aQ
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Could the Treasury matter more to markets than the Fed? 🏛️
Gibson Smith explains why Kevin Warsh may be refocusing the Fed while Treasury takes a larger role in market dynamics.
📺 https://t.co/ytf4c6Tt2B
🎧 https://t.co/QfBqISB09S
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First Trust Expands Target Outcome ETF Lineup with New Dual Directional Buffer ETF Based on QQQ
Click here for more information: https://t.co/vpFuQyLE4Y
📊 Week ending September 18, 2026 - 10-yr Treasury at 5.00%. 30-yr fixed mortgage at 7.07%. Fed Funds at 3.75% to 4.00%.
S&P 500 flat at -0.06% for the week. Energy +45.61% YTD. Utilities now negative on the year at -2.38%.
Combined net worth of U.S. households and non-profits hit $195.9 trillion in Q2. Net worth to disposable income ratio reached a record 8.28.
U.S. fixed income market: $51.4 trillion outstanding. Treasuries alone: $31.1 trillion.
🔗 https://t.co/xoyDQyHQrz
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📊 Want Fed independence? Cut government. That is Wesbury's argument this week and the data backs it up.
Warsh raised rates at his third meeting. Dot plot signals December hike. Trump took it calmly.
But it doesn't matter who chairs the Fed if government is too big. Slow growth and excess spending always create pressure to hold rates low.
Interest on the national debt as a percent of GDP now exceeds the personal saving rate for the first time on record.
🔗 https://t.co/1HUi2NCsge
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