Fish On! Capital

A man can excuse his mistakes only by capitalizing them to his subsequent profit.

[Martin Bradstreet @ALEXEIMARTOV]

Hello to all the new followers. I hope you enjoyed reading my writing about Next Gen Memory Architectures (Are you a memory man? Part 2), and my thoughts on Phison ($8299.TW). The link's in my profile if you didn't get around to it yet.

As I have mentioned on Substack many times,
for this year, and generally career-wise in life, I have 3 goals

-Outperform SPY
-Write about it on my free Substack
-Build my InvestTech app https://t.co/mOXfYvo0SO into a leading InvestTech platform and the first place I turn for my own portfolio tracking, investment research, etc.

Before investing I was a professional poker player specializing in high stakes Omaha cash games, and then ran a VR game studio (we shipped 2 games, but... not a good industry...).

ALPHAPORT started as a way to aggregate my brokerage accounts into one nice portfolio view - but i could immediately see that giving the AI a historical daily timestamp of my portfolio would let it increasingly provide insights as to what my next best investing decision would be.

Since then, I have built out many features - including what is quickly becoming a world class investment research terminal, with some very powerful LLM pipelines tools.

For now though, I will just use this as an opportunity to share my portfolio using ALPHAPORT's share feature, which creates a publically sharable snapshot (or 'live view') of a users private portfolio. Usually you can find my live portfolio in my profile, which gets auto-updated by the site each night (i'm leaving my latest substack post in that slot for now).

Here's my full holdings as of last night: https://t.co/nIjmTluseP, and the top 10 below

6/8/26 Portfolio Update
Longs (173.2%)
$HY9H.DE 14.5%
$9984 11.1%
$INTC 9.5%
$DAVE 8.0%
$7974 7.7%
$SNDK 7.4%
$PSNL 7.3%
$GTLB 7.3%
$CELC 7.2%
$2454.TW 6.5%

Short positions (-53.2%)
$ARMG -4.9%
$KORU -3.3%
$9434 -1.8%
$MRVL -1.8%
$CBA.AX -1.7%
$QCOM -1.5%
$BE -1.4%

Cash -20.0%

Although it looks like i'm running margin here, I have some leveraged positions that are short (EG $KORU/$ARMG). Usually I try to run at 85% net long, though my book sometimes floats up to 100% long when I get excited (oops).

Anyway, if you have any questions about the portfolio, feel free to ask in this thread, though nothing is financial advice and the positions may change without any notice (for example, even since last night they've changed a little as I added/increased some smaller cap taiwanese/korean stuff on the sell off that won't ingest until tonight).

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

Can someone explain to me why $GOOG is raising equity not debt?

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

@PromptLLM Sein zum Tode

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

Long analog photography
https://t.co/vL7FZ2KZL9

[Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart]

I said this to @citrini last night, but in the future, will we really need storage?

I take a ton of photos of my kids, and they are on my phone and in a cloud. But in the future, won't I just tell a model "generate a photo from my son's 7th birthday" and it'll be just as good?

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

Every retail investor who blindly followed Situational Awareness into $TE is about to get rug pulled so hard.
https://t.co/cpKc09aMM9

[FuzzyPanda @FuzzyPandaShort]

New: We are Short T1 Energy (TE)

Investors confused T1 as an AI play. It's Not. It is another China Hustle

We'll reveal the dirty little secrets of its key IP transfer that hide T1's deep ties to China

T1 is FEOCk’ed. Expect major accounting restatements coming soon

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

I think the consumer facing price of AI will have to rise significantly (tenfold or more) in order for the LLMs to turn a profit, and this will drastically reduce demand. Currently LLM prices are held artificially low, with the cash shortfall being made up by large equity deals from the mag7 in exchange for cloud computing commitments.

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

@matthew_sigel $NBIS earnings call also bolstering the disintermediation bear case.

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

The SPY/TLT 20-day rolling correlation, a decent measure of market-perceived long term inflation risk, is at a 2Y high heading into tomorrow's CPI print. The party ends at 8:30AM. Enjoy it while it lasts!

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

The SPY/TLT 20-day rolling correlation, a decent measure of market-perceived long term inflation risk, is at a 2Y high heading into tomorrow's CPI print. The party ends at 8:30AM. Enjoy it while it lasts!

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

@TheValueist $TLN explicitly called out that is it not including the Cornerstone acquisition in its guidance, while much of the Street is. Add in $250M of pro-forma 26' EBITDA from Cornerstone to Management's guide and you get a 2026 EBITDA midpoint of $2,150M vs. $2,074 consensus.

[Ray Rivers @RealRayRivers]

Coexistence isn’t a possibility it’s proven. $NN https://t.co/1NxA0s8QxG

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

New high on the 10Y since the war began. We are officially entering the danger zone.

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

Mr. Singer is not pulling any punches in Elliott's latest quarterly letter.

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

@CliffordAsness You should read Palliser Capital's activist deck on Toto. The pivot actually makes a lot of sense given Toto's manufacturing capabilities, though your broader point stands...
https://t.co/XlQtxdTapC

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

@lokoyacap OK, but what is driving those returns? Unprofitable frontier models funded by mag7 equity cheques in exchange for further compute commitments. That is clearly not sustainable long term.

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

Does this look like a melting ice-cube to you? $GTX

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

@CVCResearch What's stopping DoubleU playing hardball and letting the stock languish again? As long as they have control over capital returns, it feels like a stalemate.

[Fish On! Capital @FishOnCapital]

@ACapitalLP You clearly didn't read the tweets yesterday. It's over. The weather will continue badly.