David

Student of the Market

[David @FXDave_]

#Tariffs Enforced - What will happen now? [Thread]

Three Possibilities
a. All countries agree on a fair trade solution (6-8 weeks)

b. Tariffs escalate amongst countries with no agreement, prolonging the trade war (months)

c. The U.S. drops the tariffs due to the strain it's having on the economy (2-6 weeks)

[David @FXDave_]

@Jhswings27 You think it’ll go down to $50 again before heading up? Noticed bearish divergences forming on the 1H and 4H charts

[David @FXDave_]

#Bitcoin Update (Current Price 108k)

Price bounced off the 73k support level before heading back up. Confirmation of the reversal occurred at 91k. Hopefully many bought and held within those ranges for a 20% to 40% gain

I believe that a quick correction will occur when price hits between 115k & 120k so thats what I'm looking out for

*I'm keeping note of the bearish divergence forming on the weekly along with the RSI indicating BTC is being overbought*

[David @FXDave_]

What's happening with Bitcoin? Where's it going? (LONGTERM ANALYSIS SUMMARY)

Weekly: We appear to be in a correction phase. A strong bearish divergence has formed, making me believe this correction isn't over. I wouldn't be surprised if price tests 71k, which was the top of the previous correction channel.

Daily: The price has bounced off the 200MA while signaling a hidden bullish divergence. Based on the weekly chart, I think the price will hit 71k before we see the hidden bullish divergence execute.

Look out: If the price dumps and breaks through 53k, it would confirm the start of the downtrend cycle. However, before we get there, the price has to break three other support levels on the daily chart (200MA, 71k, 64k).

This is my last post on #Bitcoin until we reach a confirmed start of the downtrend cycle or a confirmed end of correction.

It could be weeks or months before we reach either point, as uncertainty causes consolidation. BTC's previous correction phase lasted from March to November last year.

[David @FXDave_]

@playnicegenx Yep. I agree with many small and medium sized manufacturing companies starting up and taking advantage of it. Major Corps need an incentive to move. If it costs more to reshore, they’ll just eat the tariff costs and keep producing.

[David @FXDave_]

#Tariffs Enforced - What will happen now? [Thread]

Three Possibilities
a. All countries agree on a fair trade solution (6-8 weeks)

b. Tariffs escalate amongst countries with no agreement, prolonging the trade war (months)

c. The U.S. drops the tariffs due to the strain it's having on the economy (2-6 weeks)

[David @FXDave_]

Fair point. When it comes to the thread, my point was about the scale of reshoring the Trump admin is aiming for.

Reviving idle machinery and using empty space in established plants can be part of the solution, but based on your experience do you think the scale they are looking for can be achieved with that alone?

There’s many sector that have been outsourced for decades, making reshoring unattractive.

[David @FXDave_]

I’m 100% in favor of strengthening U.S. industry and reducing dependency on exploitative labor practices. That can be achieved with both A or B (or both).

Are the current/future economic conditions (declining equity, labor shortages, rising costs) allowing companies to reshore at the scale and speed that is being promised?

Yes, we all want it to work, but you have to question if it can. And ask what are the possible outcomes.

[David @FXDave_]

@AdenoidHynkel12 Unfortunately, what’s fair is defined by the governments who have leverage and agendas. Fairness in trade is political.

[David @FXDave_]

https://t.co/80FeEmZGkR

[David @FXDave_]

https://t.co/dH9WSUAwID

[David @FXDave_]

@CarlosZeroG I agree, it is the least likely of the three outcomes mentioned.

[David @FXDave_]

#LiberationDay ≠ U.S. Stock Boost
*At least not yet, be wary*

European Union plans to implement tariffs on US goods, targeting steel, aluminum, textiles, home appliances, and agricultural goods.

Canada has announced 25% tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. imports, with some taking effect immediately.

China has indicated plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products.

Mexico is considering tariffs on U.S. exports, specifically agriculture and industrial goods.

[David @FXDave_]

Liberation Day Retaliation RISK

Investing in U.S. equities like Ford, General Motors, Nucor, and U.S. Steel Corp. carries a risk. In the coming days, foreign retaliation against tariffs may occur.

$F, $GM, $NUE, and $X operate with thin profit margins (5-10%). A rise in input costs {due to retaliation} will create tight margin pressure. Companies may miss their quarterly earnings target, which causes the repricing of said "winners."

Be wary of following market sentiment

#LiberationDay ≠ U.S. Stock Boost

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP AUTOS TARIFFS WILL COVER ALL COMPUTER IMPORTS, INCLUDING LAPTOPS AND DESKTOPS, $138.5 BLN IN 2024

[David @FXDave_]

Liberation Day Retaliation RISK

Investing in U.S. equities like Ford, General Motors, Nucor, and U.S. Steel Corp. carries a risk. In the coming days, foreign retaliation against tariffs may occur.

$F, $GM, $NUE, and $X operate with thin profit margins (5-10%). A rise in input costs {due to retaliation} will create tight margin pressure. Companies may miss their quarterly earnings target, which causes the repricing of said "winners."

Be wary of following market sentiment

#LiberationDay ≠ U.S. Stock Boost
*At least, not yet, so be wary*