Weekly Crop Progress report:
#corn is 86% planted (76% last week; 86% last yr)
#corn is 60% emerged (39% last week; 65% last yr)
#beans are 79% planted (67% last week; 75% last yr)
#beans are 49% emerged (32% last week; 48% last yr)
USDA Crop Progress
🌽 Corn planted: 76%, +6 v 5yr
🌱 Beans planted: 67%, +14 v 5yr
🌽 Corn emerged: 39%, +2 v 5yr
🌱 Beans emerged: 32%, +9 v 5yr
🔸West & South flying:
KY +20, TN +11, SD +16, ND +18, MN +12, IN +10, CO +12
🔸Eastern belt dragging:
MI 47% corn (-5), 37% beans (-9). WI emergence still crawling.
⚠️ KS the lone western laggard at 63% (-5)
📊 Takeaway for the Corn Belt: Soybean pace is the story +14 ahead is huge and reflects farmers prioritizing beans early. Combined with fast corn progress, weather risk premium is bleeding out of the board.
🐻 friendly setup unless June flips hot & dry.
Watch Michigan/Wisconsin for prevent-plant chatter?👀
🗺️ US Drought Monitor:
🟤D4 Exceptional CO, central KS, SE coast. HRW wheat country torched.
🔴 D3 Extreme KS/OK/TX panhandle, central CO, SE US spreading fast
🟠 D2 Severe Western NE, WY, eastern CO, scattered corn belt fringe
🟡 D0/D1 Core IA, IL, IN relatively CLEAN ✅
What it means production:
🌾 Wheat... Bullish confirmed. D3/D4 blanketing the HRW belt from TX through KS is the drought signature behind USDA's shocking 1.561 BB production cut smallest crop since 1972. Further yield downgrades likely as May 1 survey data ages.
🌽 Corn... Core Belt (IA/IL/IN) clean with planting at 57%, near neutral. Watch western NE & the KS fringe creeping eastward as the risk zone. Any shift into IA changes the conversation fast.
🌱 Soybean... Relatively favorable conditions in the I-states for now. 49% planted & ahead of avg. SA overhang still the dominant bearish weight. CONAB increase this morning.
⚠️ Bottom line: The drought map is a wheat story right now, not corn or beans but the western corn belt fringe bears watching hard through pollination season.
#plant26 🌽 🌱 🌾
Crop Progress Recap May 10th
🌽 Corn 57% planted, +5 pts vs avg. Planting is rolling ahead of schedule nationally.
🟢 TN (92%) & KY (87%) crushing it in the south.
MN (68% +13) ripping in the north. 🔴 Big laggard: MI at just 17%, -11 vs avg, wet conditions keeping planters parked.
🌱 Soybeans 49% planted, +13 pts vs avg. Beans are flying into the ground, 3 pts ahead of the 5-yr avg is significant.
🟢 KY +36, TN +40, and the Delta (AR 81%, LA 91%) leading the charge.
🔴 Only blemish: MI at 12%, -14 vs avg. Nearly every other state green.
🌾 Winter Wheat G/E 28%, -3 pts WoW. This is the ugly one. Crop conditions continue to deteriorate heading into critical grain fill.
🔴 The southern plains are brutal TX 10% (-6), OK 9% (-7), KS 5% (-6). HRW country is in serious trouble.
🟢 Only silver linings: MT (88%), CA (95%), and the eastern belt holding up okay.
📊 Bottom Line: Corn & beans are a bearish planting story. Wheat is the bullish wildcard 🚨... southern plains conditions are raising yield concerns heading into harvest, if there's any yield to harvest.
🔴 US Drought Monitor
Drought situation is deteriorating.
📊 75.3% of US now in some level of drought (D0-D4)
🔥 D3-D4 Extreme/Exceptional: 19.1% of U.S. land area
⚫ D4 Exceptional: 2.44%, was just 0.15% back in mid-Feb
🔹That's a 16x expansion in exceptional drought in 11 weeks.
🌾 Crop areas currently under drought stress:
▪️ Winter Wheat 70%
▪️ Corn 25%
▪️ Soybeans 27%
▪️ Sorghum 88%
▪️ Cotton 98%
▪️ Peanuts 100%
The Corn Belt core (IA/IL/IN) remains relatively clean for now.
🔸Winter wheat country is in crisis, the Plains drought corridor is expanding northward into corn/bean acres.
📌 Summer forecasts will be everything.
🌽🌱🌾 USDA Crop Progress:
Week's biggest takeaway: Row crops screaming ahead. Winter wheat still a disaster in the Plains.
🌽 Corn 38% planted, +4 vs 5yr avg
🔥 TN leading the nation at 87% planted +27 above avg
🟢 KY 77%, +31, IN 42% +20, OH 33%, +18all well ahead of pace ⚡ Corn went from 25% → 38% in a single week, one of the fastest 7-day surges in recent history
🔴 MI only 5% planted -9, ND just 4%, -5, WI 10%, -5, northern tier still sluggish
📍 The South is done. The North has work to do.
🌱 Soybeans 33% planted, +10 vs 5yr avg
🏆 TN at 69%, +44 pts above avg, extraordinary pace
🟢 LA 84%, MS 77%, AR 73%
Deep South nearly done. KY 61% +35, IN 44%, +25, NE 40%, +17, all running well ahead
🔴 MI at just 3%, -12 pts, worst in the survey by far
📊 18-state avg of 33% vs 23% historical, beans are 10 days early this season
🌾 Winter wheat G/E 31%, +1 pt WoW
💀 NE only 11% G/E, CO at just 5% G/E, Plains wheat is in crisis 📉 Last year at this time: 44% G/E nationally, we're 13 pts BELOW 2025
🟢 Western states saving the average: CA 95%, ID 87%, WA 84% ⚠️ WA dropped 8 pts in a single week
🌵 Southern Plains drought is not letting up, KS 22%, OK 16%, TX 16%
🔑 Western states masking how bad the Plains really are
📌 Big Picture: The 2026 row crop season is off to one of the fastest starts in years. But winter wheat in the Plains is tracking toward one of the weakest G/E finishes in a decade. Two very different stories on the same map.
Weekly Crop Progress report:
#corn is 38% planted (25% last week; 38% last yr)
#corn is 13% emerged (7% last week; 10% last yr)
#beans are 33% planted (23% last week; 28% last yr)
#beans are 13% emerged (8% last week; 6% last yr)
2-Month Precip Ranks:
🏆 Great Lakes/Upper Midwest: Rank 1 across nearly all of MI, WI, IN, OH, this is literally the wettest 2 month stretch on record in many districts. Unprecedented.
🌽 IL & eastern IA: Ranks 1–8, top 6% of all years going back to 1893. Some fields are pretty soaked.
💧 MN & western WI: Ranks 2–20, exceptionally wet, planting outlook very challenging, maybe.
⚠️ NE & KS: Ranks 80–133, historically DRY. Some districts in the driest 2% of all years on record.
🔴 Southern Plains (TX/OK/KS): Ranks 120–133, near record dry over this period.
📌 Bottom line: The contrast is staggering. Eastern Corn Belt = historically wet. Western Belt & Plains = historically dry. Planting delays are baked in for the East. Subsoil moisture concerns are real in the West.
IMO, we need to watch the May weather window closely, it may define a lot about how this 2026 crop will look (wx trend).