1) During US-Iran negotiations, a range of Call buys were made on ETH, the largest notional being May 3.2k x30k.
In total, $3.5m premium, not huge, but conspicuous over a weekend.
Talks v1 predictably fell short.
During Euro hours, a strip of short-term 62-70k BTC Puts lifted.
1) Quarterly Mar expiry forced many terminal hedges to roll out to April.
The maturity chosen for hedges/plays in this ME/Trump environment is critical.
Too short-term and it is often wasted premium, particularly with elevated fear/Put Skew.
Puts funded by Calls risk resolution.
1) STRC assisted BTC to 76k and last report's 75k Calls to a 4x, but there was no sign of profit taking as Spot retraced hard.
Instead, buying of 50-60k Puts, +Mar Put spreads.
When Israel hit energy infra yesterday and PPI came in hot, Puts lifted via April+Dec risk reversals.
1) Some rays of light emerging from the darkness.
While Put Skew remains firm on the back of continued protection vs downside global uncertainties, decent clip buying of end-of-Mar and April 75k Calls take advantage of the depressed Call Skew and a contrary directional view.
🧵
Crypto doesn’t trade like equities.
It trades like flow.
“Who’s paying 30 vols wide for convexity if all they want is linear exposure?
@0xturbanurban, CEO of @MonacoTrading and former GSR trader.
Full Amberdata Derivatives Podcast @genesisvol below...
https://t.co/ROXNYe91KU
“The first white hair in my beard was when oil went negative.”
Before leading @MonacoTrading, @0xturbanurban was on the oil desk at Goldman Sachs during one of the most historic market events ever.
From calling oil producers during negative WTI…
To building DeFi trading at @GSR_io
This episode breaks down what real risk management looks like when models fail and markets break.
Watch the full Amberdata Derivatives Podcast hosted by @genesisvol 🔻
https://t.co/99Cxfs6OVa
1) In a continuous downtrend in the existing range, it's not a surprise to see ongoing downside plays (protection and bearish) on BTC.
How these are initiated determines the degree of likely returns.
Put skew is back to Feb5th levels, IV>RV.
58k Puts in demand, Put spreads, +RRs.
From negative oil at Goldman Sachs to building onchain market infrastructure w/ @genesisvol 🛢️
@0xturbanurban, CEO of @MonacoTrading and former @GoldmanSachs & @GSR_io trader, joins the Amberdata Derivatives Podcast to break down volatility regimes, ETF flows, DeFi liquidity, & why risk engines matter more than throughput.
Watch the full episode today.
https://t.co/99Cxfs6OVa
From negative oil at Goldman Sachs to building onchain market infrastructure.
Simran Singh, CEO of Monaco and former Goldman Sachs and GSR trader, joins the Amberdata Derivatives Podcast to break down volatility regimes, ETF flows, DeFi liquidity, and...
https://t.co/Vc89sQdups
BTC DVol exploded from sub-40 to 90.
But 90-day basis barely moved, and funding didn’t fully flush.
Vol spike ≠ capitulation.
Short-term bounce? Likely.
New cycle? Not yet.
Full breakdown in this week’s Amberdata Derivatives @genesisvol Newsletter. https://t.co/hLpphzXxCN
I worked with @SinclairEuan back in the late 90's.
He is one of many true geniuses I have met along the way, but one of the few who naturally communicates complex ideas into simple language and analogies.
So many of the others will only be able to answer a question on a whiteboard with complex maths.
Whereas Euan is able to do the maths equally well, but you'll only find this on a pub blackboard (food menu scrubbed off) while simultaneously drinking a pint and watching the All Blacks.
@genesisvol asking the questions.
A must listen if you want to be pushed to think differently.
1) If you slept/afk for 48hrs you might check-in - BTC 70k - as if nothing had happened.
If not, you may well have been awake through a nightmare if not hedged/positioned as indicated in the last report.
18% capitulation event down to 60k.
Then 20% pump 70k+
IV+Skew+Forensics 🧵
It's important to contextualize market moves, and that can be painful...Buckle. In.
- A -14.4% move in one day is 4.5σ, when looking over the past 6y....the last time we saw this was Nov '22 during the FTX collapse.
- The last time $BVIV (the VIX-equivalent for BTC vol) was this high was also during the Nov '22 turmoil.
- The liquidations are nowhere near the 10Oct25 amounts we witnessed a few months back...leverage pretty much flushed out of the system it feels like