guy hangin out

back and worse than ever. dismal science practitioner.

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#RidinWithBiden

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@2Josher Ben foids five(?)

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@EricAdamsFanBoy She'd probably get fewer EVs but pick up either more or the same number of states. NC and IN wouldn't have swung her way, but I think MO would've been a gain for her, AR would've been within reason, and WV wouldn't have been out of the question.

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@budgjori @lemmingstribes You joke but I gotta buddy who is starting with the ancient greeks so he can better understand spinoza so he can better understand kant so he can better understand hegel so he can better understand Marx.

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@in2gr8in @canceled4truth There's a circle of people who have convinced themselves because of one or two papers by economists trying to be smug contrarians about how they actually have predictive power. It's just a way for online young liberals to be edgy and different.

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@AndrewHilaryUS Need a camel crush but when you crush the bead you get scared.

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@budgjori Why would you ever invoke Obama, who is weirdly taking on a JFK-like quality as a canonized figure of good liberalism? Why would he do this?

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@budgjori Why isn't Zohran my hyper niche maoist tendency why isn't he spelling America with three ks why isn't he my friend :(

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@Hunterhasnolife Trash stack, missing adderall

[do you feel like you’re a part of it? @NONBlNARY]

pickle down rickonomics

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@posting_forever Why does he look like a @DaveMcNamee3000 character

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Scrolled too fast and thought @jesawyer aged several decades from working on the new fallout like he drank outta the wrong cup in Indiana Jones

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Democratic political strategist Simon Rosenberg warns that Abdul El-Sayed and Francesca Hong’s chances of winning remain unproven in a general election.

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@budgjori showed a classic car as if it wouldn't be rusted the fuck out in six months out here

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@dumbapp4nerds @njsilvadyne White rabbit is a decent song but I can take or leave most of their other stuff

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@davidslosttt I assume this is via multilevel regression poststratification? Are you using like a Hamilton Monte Carlo or something like BART?

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@realPrestonHill @electionsjoe His overwhelming margins in 2024 boosted the GOP in the state legislature, which got rid of the dem supermajority. Makes it a harder sell for the dems he needs to win over. His victory depends on middle aged liberals thinking "well, I like Phil more than I dislike Republicans"

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@realPrestonHill @electionsjoe His popularity is fading a bit, his lowest point for polling in 2024 was 56%. 2023 he got a lot of popularity off hiking to the emergency response center after his road got washed out, which pushed up his margins. It's still likely he pulls together a victory, but not like 2024.

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@budgjori Only thing Vance truly has in common with Nixon is repressed homosexual tendencies

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@forwardspin111 Thomas Crooks wasn't aiming for Trump

[Terri @_Terricka]

Did yall hear about Vladimir Putin opening the oldest vault to reveal images of biblical figures? They all black every single one.

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🫵LOOK THE PREVIOUSLY UNTESTED KALSHI SPONSORED FORECAST MODEL THAT CLAIMS SUB-STATE ACCURACY SAID-- please shut up lol, please.

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As somebody who has expertise in like, swing voter behavior & election data analysis, it's really funny watching people celebrate / freak out over generic ballot polling. It's July. None of the fuckin morons that decide close elections these days have made up their minds yet.