Heidi Hartmann

Econ policy, sociology, women, work, democracy. Distinguished Economist American Univ. Editor @JournalWPP. Founding President @IWPResearch. First Generation.

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

New Twitter handle from @HeidiatIWPR (now gone) to @HeidiIHartmann. See the middle I in there. After retiring as President @IWPResearch I worked part-time to complete 2 projects, appointment ended March 31. I remain with @urbaninstitute and American University Economics @AU_PGAE

[Olivier Blanchard @ojblanchard1]

With apologies, a long tweet, about the likely macroeconomic outcomes of Liberation Day.

Tariffs can be imposed for understandable if not necessarily good reasons: Protect a sector, right or wrong. Extract rents from foreign producers if there are rents to be extracted. Sure, if there is retaliation, everybody will be worse off, but it maybe worth taking the risk.

Across the board tariffs, which sounds like what we are going to get, are however the worse possible tariffs. They are bad for the country that imposes them, even without retaliation.

Standard scenario: The initial effect of higher tariffs may look good: Lower imports. Higher demand for domestic goods. Smaller trade deficit.

But, with the smaller deficits, and the higher interest rates needed to keep demand under control, appreciation of the dollar (say), less competitive exports. Until trade deficit is back to square one.

So: Useless? Worse. Costly reallocation from exports to import competing sectors. Misallocation. And for the revenues from tariffs: They are there, but in the end, they are paid mostly by US consumers.

A relevant twist, which changes the standard scenario: The enormous uncertainty about Trumps’s tariff policy: Are the tariffs transactional or permanent? Will they remain/increase/decrease?

In that environment, if I am a firm, what do I do? Build a plant in Mexico or in the US, in Vietnam or in China, etc. I do not know, and so I wait. We all wait. Investment comes down, aggregate demand falls, and the effect is a recession.

Now the trade balance improves, for two reasons. The direct effect of tariffs, and lower activity means lower imports. As the Fed tries to maintain activity, lower interest rates and a lower dollar mean more exports. Looks great. Claim of success on the trade front (if you can make people forget the recession)

But only for a while. Over time, as the economy recovers, you go back to the first scenario. The depreciation eventually turns into an appreciation, activity recovers, the trade deficit returns to square one Overall result: a recession, no gain. A general mess.

We shall see how it all turns out.

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

@nytimesarts @AndrewRusseth Catch this!

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

For those who haven’t seen this. A generous write-up. But it is nice to know my photo is hanging next to Janet Yellen’s at the Yale Economics Department. @FemMajority @elliesmeal In case you missed this Ellie. Your Expo!

[Yale Economic Growth Center @YaleEGC]

Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann, founder of @IWPResearch & @macfound “Genius Grant,” helped create feminist economics.

“Progress in research on women's economic needs to come from working with others & listening to those affected by public policies.”
https://t.co/bGZCqEuJOh

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

Please check out this book by my colleague from IAFFE, a terrific scholar.

[Kanchana N Ruwanpura 🐞💙🍀 @knr21_cam]

exciting! just out! #OpenAccess ebook

🙏 to @Handels_gbg

edited 📕 with @amjadmsaleem

our 📖 w/@routledgebooks @Routledge_AS @Rout_PoliticsIR

🙏 to @d_schaefter @AgniArm

#AcademicChatter
#OpenAccess #srilanka #aragalaya

https://t.co/3sBMKTECEy

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

@gberik Me too. Stupid on admin part as well as sad.

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

@hshierholz Beautiful and ingenious! Congrats!

[Larry Mishel @larrymishel.bsky.social @LarryMishel]

@AFLCIO @WSpriggs a tremendous loss. Here's some initial thoughts.

[Council of DC @councilofdc]

This “but” is like saying “Save the whales!” then eating one

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

@IWPResearch @socialinsurance @SSWorks Thank you Cindy Hounsell and @WISERwomen

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

Women’s need for caregiving credits in Social Security, work I did with Jeff Hayes @IWPResearch. See also @socialinsurance @SSWorks

[Social Security @SocialSecurity]

For most women, learning about Social Security and how to maximize benefits is critically important to their financial security. Check out today’s guest blog for more information at https://t.co/dGynQuRiGc #SocialSecurity @WISERwomen

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

Disappointed that President Biden is not supporting Washington DC home rule. We need to become a state with 2 Senators and improve democracy.

[Julianne McShane @JulianneMcShane]

NEW @NBCNews: A new set of federal proposals could help domestic violence victims protect their phone data — a key way to help them break free from abusers, experts say. ☎️

"Things like this really are a life and death issue," @epenzeymoog told me.

https://t.co/WFOZk7wvPJ

[Rep. Barbara Lee (Archived) @RepBarbaraLee]

Did you know that income over $160,000/year is NOT subject to social security payroll taxes?

That needs to change. Remove the cap. Make everyone pay their fair share.

[Michael Beschloss @BeschlossDC]

What do these two portraits have in common?

[Thea Lee @TheaMeiLee]

So happy to be at the White House for the nomination of the amazing, powerful, progressive ⁦@JulieSuCA⁩ to be the next Labor Secretary of the United States of America.

[Ibram X. Kendi @ibramxk]

The 6888th Central Postal Directory Battalion, or "Six Triple Eight," was the only all-Black, all-woman U.S. unit to serve overseas in World War II. Those who served in it, including some veterans over the age of 100, are finally getting due recognition.

https://t.co/3IR6kWKp35

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

Last week they claimed insurmountable transportation problems. This week no excuse so far. As @rkuttnerwrites once said, you don’t expect to return to the garage to pick up your car and be told they can’t fix it. @nytopinion @nytimes

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

Are others having trouble getting their papers delivered by the New York Times in Washington DC esp. on Fridays? I feel like I am one of a dying breed who likes to read the newsprint over tea in the morning and they wish I didn’t. Second Friday in a row. @nytimes @nytopinion

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

@amyburnettcross Can’t read all that! With what, insecticide?

[Heidi Hartmann @HeidiIHartmann]

@haroldpollack @DogVander Too funny!