Renki

I write just about everything!
Substack focused on Fertility Rates

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

New article on Fertility Rates, also published on my substack

https://t.co/FRuCIpxdx5

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

https://t.co/2WrM5qFBny

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@MoreBirths It seems that many institutions are captured by groups in the malthusian narrative

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

You know the real reason is that they can keep using the wartime past as a rallying and distracting issue when domestic problems arise. Japan sent a ton of money to South Korea for reparations yet who was in charge of that money? The Park Chung-hee government back then who didn't give the money to the victims but used for industrial development. But you know they will always pivot to something else. The language and tone of the apologies, Yasukuni shrine visits.

As long as the left-wing governments of South Korea keep doing this, you will never get a resolution. You could do a complete dogeza and use the most heian, sophisticated language with several 表外字 kanjis and even offer some money they would keep saying: NOT ENOUGH.

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

日本、1994年のエンゼルプラン以降、ずっと少子化対策を拡大してきましたよね。で、実際どうなったの？って話。
日本ってアメリカより有給取りやすいし、育休も長いし、保育所の整備も進んでるし、子育て支援もいろいろあるのに、なんで出生率はアメリカの方が高いんだろう。「構造的・経済的な問題が主因だ！」ってまだ言っている人、正直それに全部押し付けてるだけじゃないでしょうか。
ハンガリーを見てみると、GDPの5.5%を税制優遇とかローン免除、住宅補助につぎ込んでいるのに、TFRはいま1.3くらい。別に出生率は回復していない。
フィンランドも子育て支援がとても手厚くて世界トップクラスなのに、出生率は日本と大差ないレベル。
日本は戦後の焼け野原から這い上がって、70〜80年代には高度成長でとても豊かになったのに、出生率はずっと下がり続けている。
「構造的問題だ、と」「お金と制度が足りないからだ！」という話ばかりするのは、そろそろ考え直してもいいんじゃないでしょうか。もちろん影響はあるけれど、それがメインじゃない。
価値観とか人生観の変化、そこを見ないといつまでも同じ議論が繰り返されるだけ。キャリア、趣味、自己実現が最優先で、家族や子孫は「サブクエスト」。その空気が出生率を動かしている本体だと思います。

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@SunriseEnjoyer @arthur0x @grok Here is the source, have fun.
https://t.co/OSJnvA24u2

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@JigokuCake It's interesting. Japan's been expanding on programs to combat low fertility since 1994 and yet US has higher rates. Don't get me wrong, these programs have merit on their own, it's just intriguing that if one of the goals was to help people to have + children, it hasn't worked.

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@CacheThatCheque That was still Taisho! Incidentally Taisho was the period where Japan was at peak fertility. Not Meiji, not Showa. Nation Building, Shinto confucianism, expansionism, family and legacy along with high marriage was at the strongest there

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@DrewPavlou China needs a shitload of cameras and other surveillance methods to keep tabs and discourage people from commiting crimes. Japan is more cultural and values based, so they don’t need that many cameras.
Might have to change if more and more immigrants settle in though.

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@CacheThatCheque I think this was the turnaround when the first generation raised entirely under the new american coerced japanese constitution reached adulthood. Lots of things changed to adapt to the new constitution and it ended up reshaping society in a major way

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@sadakiyo99 @arthur0x I have presented you the link that shows the clusters in rural and urban. The figures still don’t look good to backing the OPs claim that in suburban and rural areas 3+ children are very common.

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@sadakiyo99 @arthur0x Even if you look at more suburban and rural prefectures, the figures aren’t really good and still not that common. Okinawa has the highest tfr and the poorest prefecture. It still doesn’t look good and the point still stands. You can look at it yourself:

https://t.co/3WHQj428cc

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@TGTM_Official Depends on what one consider religion. Shinto and Buddhism are very different to Abrahamic faiths in the way they encompass spiritualism.

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@japan_nobunaga Sure, but what is a plan that will actually work? Government has been on this since 1994 with structural fix plans to no avail while the population keeps dropping further.
Is it not time to reflect why they keep failing and why doubling down hasn't been working?

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@QuetzalPhoenix Unless your meaning substrate is intact, like Israel even if you disregard the ultra orthodox. They even manage to have children despite working longer hours than Japan and having shitty work-life balance.

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@MoreBirths And the burden keeps going up the more childless a society becomes

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@DrCalumMiller Japan also had their entire constitution replaced by a western liberal one, coerced by the SCAP with minimal input from the Japanese which destroyed state Shinto and dismantled the household system and other things.
Take your pick.

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@PessimismeActif Le problème, c'est que le Japon n'a aucun sous-groupe à forte fécondité, alors qu'en France, des groupes chrétiens français pratiquants présentent des taux de natalité supérieurs à ceux des Japonais.

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@NiohBerg Fixing it would require entering seas that governments aren't willing to set sail into. We gotta admit that structural solutions after decades of attempts aren't working and increasing or expanding them won't fix it. We need to fix the meaning substrate.

[Renki @HikaruiTen]

@UBERSOY1 The 1970s were when the first post-WWII generation of Japanese, the first to live their entire lives under the new U.S.-imposed constitution, became adults. Which did a massive number on how society structured itself