What does the government need to do to set up for their five missions? While a missions driven-government will require some major changes in the way it operates, there are some immediate steps the government can take to get the architecture right. 1/
https://t.co/HDUArCFfbi
My new book HOW TYRANTS FALL: And How Nations Survive is out today! If you've ever asked yourself how Putin might fall or what could happen if our democracies die, this book is for you.
https://t.co/EKsDUXMP3y
What does a ‘mission-driven’ approach to government mean and how can it be delivered? Some thoughts @nesta_uk @instituteforgov https://t.co/q5jjRdLGcW
Parties will need to think about how much stability they need. This can be to deliver their agenda, survive votes of no confidence, reassure the markets, and also the security of the party leader's position. To secure this they will need to negotiate with other parties. 4/6
“Stop the boats”
Sunak’s pledge was to pass legislation to stop the boats, which he's done. But crossings remain high. There are no official forecasts, but in 2020-22 crossings varied across the year, peaking just when we'd expect an early autumn election campaign to begin...
“Cut waiting lists”
The @TheIFS have projected scenarios for the high profile elective waiting list. Their central scenario only shows sustained reductions from July 2024, and if doctors strikes continue then cutting the waiting lists may get even more difficult...
“Reduce debt”
Sunak didn’t give a time period for this pledge, but it’s likely he was referring to meeting his fiscal rules (debt falling as a share of GDP in 2027/28), which the OBR forecast suggests he will meet (even if 2027/28 is well beyond the current electoral cycle)
“Grow the economy”
The economy has grown and is forecast to continue growing towards an election, but slowly
The longer he waits to call election, the bigger the economy is expected to be (give or take)
“Halve inflation by the end of 2023”
Forecasts suggest he may meet this pledge – but it's looking very tight. Either way, inflation is forecast to continue falling into 2024...
The longer he waits to call the election, the lower inflation is likely to be at that time
In Jan, Sunak laid out his five pledges and asked the country to judge him on “the results we achieve”
At @instituteforgov we've looked at different general election timings + where Sunak might be on his five pledges come the election...
https://t.co/ZMTfF00qJq
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New @instituteforgov guide for government on how to manage consultants.
How to ensure the work is good, you aren't using consultants for bad reasons, and the project doesn't turn ugly.
https://t.co/58UH350Nk3