Jan Heitmann

Poker-Experte, Keynote Speaker, Sport1 Kommentator, TV Total Coach, Zauberer, Vater

[Derek Sivers @sivers]

https://t.co/awW5fxtdHK

[Jan Heitmann @JanHeitmann]

@Stapes @PokerStars @PokerStarsUSA Absolute legend. Congrats on getting engaged, Joe!

[Carlos E. Perez @IntuitMachine]

1/
Everyone who's read Scott Alexander's "Meditations on Moloch" walks away with the same sinking feeling:

"We're trapped. Individual rationality leads to collective doom. There's no way out."

I believed this for years.

I was wrong.

2/
First, let's make sure we're talking about the same demon.

Moloch is the god of coordination failure.

He's the reason we destroy the things we love through the act of competing for them.

3/
Moloch is:

The arms race no one wanted but everyone joined
The ocean fished to collapse by rational fishermen
The inbox that devours evenings because "everyone else is online"
The hiring process bloated with signals no one believes but everyone requires

4/
The pattern is always the same:

Each person makes a locally rational choice. Those choices aggregate into collective catastrophe. Everyone sees it happening. No one can stop.

It feels like gravity. Inevitable. Structural.

5/
Here's what changed my mind:

A simple question I'd never thought to ask.

"If Moloch is inevitable, why isn't everything already Moloch'd?"

6/
Think about it.

Humans have been optimizing for thousands of years.

If coordination failure was truly inescapable, we should be living in a hellscape of pure defection.

We're not.

Something is holding Moloch back.

7/
That something has a structure.

And once you see the structure, you realize:

Moloch doesn't win by default.

He wins when four specific conditions are met.

Remove any one of them, and he weakens.
Remove enough, and he loses.

8/
Moloch's Four Requirements:

Coordination is impossible (no communication, no trust)
Defection is invisible (you can cheat without being seen)
Defection is unpunishable (even if caught, no consequences)
Cooperation isn't rewarded (nice guys finish last)

9/
Read that list again.

Those aren't laws of physics.

They're design parameters.

Parameters that humans have successfully altered before.

10/
Existence Proof #1: Rule of Law

Before: "Might makes right" → constant low-level violence → no investment in future → everyone worse off

This was Moloch winning.

11/
Then something happened.

Humans invented legal systems.

Suddenly:

Defection (violence, theft) became visible (witnesses, evidence)
Defection became punishable (courts, enforcement)
Cooperation became rewarded (contracts became enforceable)

12/

The result?
Violence dropped. Trade increased. Investment became possible.
Not utopia. But measurably, dramatically better.

Moloch didn't disappear.
He was pushed back.

13/
Existence Proof #2: Property Rights

The tragedy of the commons is Moloch's favorite game.

Everyone overgrazes. The commons dies. Everyone loses.

"Inevitable," we're told.

14/
Except... it's not.

When communities developed property norms—whether private ownership or collective management with rules—the dynamic shifted.

Defection became visible. Consequences became real. Stewardship became rational.

15/

Existence Proof #3: Democratic Succession

For most of history, power transferred through violence.

King dies → succession war → thousands dead → winner takes throne → repeat.

Pure Moloch.

16/

Then humans invented something weird:

Elections.
Peaceful power transfer. Losers accept results. Winners don't execute opponents.

Sounds impossible. Yet here we are.

17/

I'm not saying these systems are perfect.

I'm saying they exist.

They prove that coordination failures can be engineered away.

Moloch-escape isn't a fantasy. It's been done.

Repeatedly.

18/

So what's the actual formula?

Invert Moloch's four requirements:

✓ Build coordination infrastructure (communication + trust)
✓ Make defection visible (transparency architecture)
✓ Make defection costly (credible commitment mechanisms)
✓ Make cooperation pay (positive-sum structure)

19/
This is engineering, not prayer.

You don't beat Moloch by being virtuous.

You beat him by changing the game so that selfish actors accidentally cooperate.

20/
This is the secret hidden in plain sight:

Every institution that works is a Moloch-trap.

Markets. Courts. Democracies. Professional norms. Reputation systems.

All are mechanisms that convert individual selfishness into collective benefit.

21/
"But wait," you say. "These systems are failing. Moloch is winning."

Fair.

Let me reframe:

These systems are eroding.

Moloch doesn't conquer—he corrodes.

22/
Here's the brutal truth:

Alignment isn't a state. It's a process.

Every Moloch-trap requires active maintenance.

Stop maintaining, and Moloch seeps back in.

23/
This is actually good news.

It means the question isn't "Can we escape Moloch?"

It's "Are we willing to maintain our escapes?"

24/

The generation that built rule of law, property rights, democratic norms—they did impossible things.

Not because they were smarter.

Because they understood something we've forgotten:
Coordination problems are solvable.

25/
New Moloch-traps are needed now.

For AI development. For social media dynamics. For climate coordination. For attention economics.

The old traps don't fit the new games.

26/
But the method still works:

Identify where individual rationality → collective harm
Find ways to make defection visible
Build mechanisms that make defection costly
Design structures where cooperation pays

27/
This won't happen automatically.

Moloch is the default.

Escape requires deliberate construction.

But "requires effort" ≠ "impossible."

28/

I used to read "Meditations on Moloch" and feel despair.
Now I read it as a diagnostic manual.

Moloch isn't a god.

He's a bug.

A well-understood bug with known patches.

29/

The question isn't whether Moloch can be beaten.
History already answered that.
The question is whether we'll build the next generation of traps before the current ones finish eroding.

30/
Moloch is not inevitable.

He's just patient.

And he's betting we've forgotten how to fight.

Let's prove him wrong.

/end

[Jan Heitmann @JanHeitmann]

@Charlie_Carrel Livetells

[George Danzer @george_danzer]

Every year, it gets more difficult to predict the Super Bowl result based on the quarterback interviews in the week leading to it. They get so much media training, so most responses are prepared. Sometimes a kid asks a question that triggers a real response, but most journalists just butter them up.

[All The Right Movies @ATRightMovies]

CHRISTOPHER WALKEN reads the lyrics to Lady Gaga's Pokerface in true Walken style.

[Nietzsche @Nietzsxhe]

Ist ne Frechheit, wenn Restaurants die richtig geilen Gerichte wie Pommes+Nuggets und Spaghetti Bolo nur bei "Für unsere Kleinen" anbieten und ich als Erwachsener dann so tun muss, als würde ich tatsächlich lieber so Dreck wie gedünstete Zander-Vorhaut auf Morchel-Püree fressen.

[Jan Heitmann @JanHeitmann]

And he hasn’t called for >2000 years…

[Joe “Stapes” Stapleton @Stapes]

To all my poker people celebrating Easter today, just wanna remind y'all: Jesus was the original raiser.

[Poker Power @joinpokerpower]

Pre-pandemic our president, Erin Lydon did a @TEDTalks on #EqualPay. It began with a clip of the #WorldCup-winning US team chanting for equal pay & ended with solutions to address the problem. But if Erin gave that same TEDx today, she would only offer one solution: Play Poker ♣️

[James Clear @JamesClear]

Everyone is gambling, all the time.

The "risk takers" have the courage to attempt something and gamble with the possibility of failure.

The "risk averse" avoid failure, but gamble with the opportunity cost of what they could have achieved—had they found the courage to try.

[Tommy Angelo @TheTommyAngelo]

When we get better at poker, we get better at life. Poker teaches us to be more realistic, more strategic, more patient. When we carry these qualities from the table into life, life gets easier. And then, poker gets easier. Here’s to getting better. At everything.

[Laurie Kilmartin @anylaurie16]

Really good thread, scroll up!

[Phil Galfond @PhilGalfond]

Navigating the Tug-of-War Between Love and Obsessive Drive

I've been:

- self-employed w/ big dreams for 15yrs
- married for 7.5
- father for 4
- learning from plenty of mistakes!

If you've said, "Sorry, honey. This week is crazy" in the last 2 months, this thread is for you 🧵

[Jan Heitmann @JanHeitmann]

@EnswellJones @cbcsports What a game. What a complex dynamic, what stories about heroes and forititudes (?), about bad beats, failures and … humanity, I guess?
Truly the Beautiful Game.

Poker is like that.

This is Jan Heitmann for https://t.co/lXwETcZaTv.

[Michael Koerner @MichaKoerner]

Glückwunsch Max Kruse.....
https://t.co/1V5tBSIEYx

[Michael Koerner @MichaKoerner]

Er hat es wirklich geschafft. Max Kruse hat sich den Traum eines jeden Pokerspielers erfüllt und ein WSOP Bracelet gewonnen. Details bald bei https://t.co/4KZalQ1ZXG

[PokerFirma - Die ganze Welt ist Poker @pokerfirma]

Endlich kann auch Max Kruse über ein Bracelet jubeln. Der Fußball Profi setzte sich beim € 1.500 + 150 NLH 6-max Event # 7 der WSOPE im King's Resort Rozvadov durch und sicherte sich so € 124.152, das €10k WSOPE Ticket und sein erstes Bracelet. https://t.co/QttS1z5vQT

[Jan Heitmann @JanHeitmann]

Absolut empfehlenswerte Doku!! Schaut es euch an. @CrownUpGuy erzählt seine Geschichte und lässt Poker dabei gut aussehen. Sich auch. 😁

[Das Erste @DasErste]

Die Doku-Serie "Money Maker" erzählt die Geschichte des deutschen #Poker-Weltmeisters Fedor Holz – um 22:50 Uhr im Ersten und jetzt in der #ARDMediathek: https://t.co/IAoYw2chn7 @CrownUpGuy

[CNBC Events @cnbcevents]

Jenny Just of @joinpokerpower explains how playing poker can build confidence for women in business to @JBoorstin at CNBC's #Disruptor50 Summit.

[jens.hauschke @HauschkeJ]

Schöne Idee, gute Gedanken: @kalhamer im #HAZ-Sonntags-Dingsbums.