$BTC Sunday update:
Price is back at the range lows of this 4-month range.
I'm expecting a strong bounce here, not because it's a range since all of them eventually break, but because this drop was too sharp (-25% in 4 weeks) and is extremely overextended.
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March 23 : Someone bet $500M on oil.
Trump postponed Iran strikes 15 minutes later.
April 7 : Someone bet $950M on oil.
US-Iran ceasefire announced hours later.
April 17 : Someone bet $760M on oil.
Trump declared Hormuz open 20 minutes later.
Three perfect bets. Three perfect timings.
The name behind them?
Barron Trump.
Reminder
Death will come on an ordinary day, in the middle of unfinished plans, and the world will continue without you.
Your luxury cars, watches will be worth nothing. But its your good deeds that will be remembered so dont forget the ones in need 💙🫶
WIZZ
@Nebraskangooner Sounds like it's time for a vacation. Need to unplug and get away from your day to day stressors. Don't even need to go anywhere just relax, take your mind off of your stuff, and relax. That will do wonders to recharge the batteries and you'll 100% notice the difference.
An absolutely ridiculous lightning strike in #Pittsburgh tonight, dead center behind the city from the South Side Slopes. It was incredible how you can see where it exited the cloud from as well. One of my favorite bolts I've ever captured, and awesome shooting with @dmcgrew!
Stop buying altcoins and other assets just because they’re “oversold" or "cheap"
That’s how you end up holding downtrends that never recover.
The market rewards strength — not hope.
Here’s how to actually buy dips the right way 🧵
Mr Beast uploaded over 455 videos before becoming famous.
Walt Disney faced 300 rejections before creating the most magical brand ever.
Picasso produced 20,000 artworks before the world recognized his genius.
Colonel Sanders pitched KFC 1,009 times before finding success.
The Beatles were rejected by 5 labels before revolutionizing music.
You will get liquidated 102 times before getting your first win.
Never give up !
How real bottoms form.
People want to know if this is the bottom. The truth is that bottoms are not single candles. They are structures. They form slowly. They take effort. And they force you to read the chart without jumping ahead of it.
Right now price is still trapped inside the full range of the February 5 down candle. That single candle has contained price for almost a month. Until we break out of it, everything that happens inside is just noise. Even if the low is already in, structure still needs time to develop.
Look at the chart. The bounce from 59.9 has only taken us into the lower part of the range (top of the last capitulation candle) and into some early moving average resistance. That is normal. A market that just dropped from 98k to 59k is not going to reclaim higher timeframe levels in a straight line.
If this is the early stage of a bottoming process, the signs will always show up in the same places. Key horizontal levels. Key reclaim points. Key acceptance zones. And whether those levels fail or hold on higher timeframes.
The first chart shows the zone we are stuck in. This is your candle range. Until price escapes the full body and reclaims it, there is no thought of a structural shift. Bulls need to take back that zone and hold above it. Not wick above it. Hold above it. If price breaks out but cannot accept at the new level, that is not a breakout. It is a trap.
The second chart shows a more typical bottom. A large selloff. A range that forms. A slow reclaim of lost ground. One level at a time. Each level becomes a test. The market either accepts the reclaim, or you get a swing failure pattern that rejects and sends the price lower. That slow crawl is common because bottoms form when buyers gradually prove they are willing to absorb the supply that forced the initial drop.
The third chart shows the rare version. The V type. These happen when you get a violent move down followed by immediate defense of the wick lows and the close. Notice how clean the stepping structure is. Price fights through each area of resistance. It does not teleport. It grinds. It reclaims. It accepts. Then moves to the next level. That is the clue for a real V-bottom. Not the violence of the initial bounce, but the calm strength that follows.
In both versions, the key is the same. Horizontal levels. Are they reclaimed. Does price accept at the new level. Or do you get rejection or a higher timeframe swing failure pattern.
This is why the next stretch matters. A move into 74 to 76 will tell you who is in control. A push into 78 to 80 tells you how much supply is left. A test of 83 tells you if the deeper levels are being defended. Acceptance at any of these opens the door to the next. Rejection or failure at any of these warns you the bottom still needs more time or lower levels.
Bottoms are built by watching the reaction at each step. That is the entire game.
You do not predict them. You read them.
If this is going to be a V type, you will see clean stepping. If this is going to be a range type, you will see sweeps, failed breakdowns, and slow absorption.
If this is not the bottom, you will see failed acceptance at the key reclaim zones.
The chart will tell you everything if you stop searching for a hero candle and start focusing on structure. Most traders look for magic instead of levels. But it has always been the same. A real bottom reveals itself one reclaim at a time.
Watch the levels. Watch acceptance. Watch the reactions. Do that and won't get caught offside with a bias, do that and the market will show you the bottom long before the crowd sees it.
$BTC Sunday update:
As we mentioned last Sunday, the US-Iran conflict is breaking out.
The market was pricing in this conflict throughout the week and price dropped 8%, close to our -10% target.
This is how I expect the stock market and crypto to behave next week:
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