Joe

Director of Programmes @Airwars, co-creator @munitionsportal. Former @AFP @newhumanitarian.

[Belgian Red Devils @BelRedDevils]

Overturn this. 🧏‍♂️ #USABEL

[Joe @joedyke]

@TexAgg04 @Mr_Andrew_Fox Genuinely disagree. Most genuine football fans have separated this exciting young team from the administration- love Poch too. Now most neutrals will support Belgium

[Joe @joedyke]

@markvalorian Do you know anything about football?

You can overturn incorrect red cards - that happens quite regularly. There is an established appeals process.

This is not what happened - they asked for an exemption from the rules. So they invented a "suspended" sentence - i.e. corruption

[Joe @joedyke]

@TexAgg04 Yes. Technically to be onside he or she can be 'level' with the last defender (assuming the goalkeeper is there) as the ball is passed

[Joe @joedyke]

@TexAgg04 If I understand you right, it's more 2.

It is only offside if player 2 gets involved. So if player one someone headed it in the goal directly it wouldn't be offside - only if player 2 is 'directly involved' in the play

[Joe @joedyke]

@TexAgg04 If not, then it's the original cross - when both players were onside.
So the question all boils down to whether or not player one flicked it. If he did, then its clearly offside. If he didn't, then clearly onside.
Also never say offsides as it makes you sound like a newby haha!

[Joe @joedyke]

@TexAgg04 Not sure I fully understand but let me have a go. When the ball is crossed in, neither player is offside. If player one flicks it with his head, then the "offside" counter effectively starts again as that becomes the pass.

[Katrina Manson @KatrinaManson]

NEW FROM BLOOMBERG: An analyst's missed remarks and US intelligence systems that weren’t connected to one another are among the missteps that investigators have surfaced while probing the cause of a missile strike on an Iranian school that killed an estimated 120 children. Link:

[Joe @joedyke]

Remember when everyone was furious that Extinction Rebellion protests disrupted the economy and stopped kids getting to school?

[Financial Times @FT]

Many schools in London and southern England are finishing early in response to the extreme heat, while some are closing altogether. Others have cancelled sports days and PE, rolled back their uniform policy and rushed to buy fans. https://t.co/m1yXnJQjWH

[Airwars @airwars]

NEW: With all eyes on the faltering US-Iran peace deal, the human cost of warfare is often forgotten.

Our new research brings together - for the first time - all cases where civilians were killed: 1,000 incidents in 40 days across 14 countries.

https://t.co/r28cEjoI4M

[Dan Shapiro @DanielBShapiro]

Until the text of the US-Iran deal is signed and released, there is going to be a lot of spin on both sides. But here is my initial take.

This war was a mistake, and it needs to end. The President thought that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly, but it did not. In fact, it has been strengthened strategically by its survival against a heavy US-Israeli assault and carrying out some effective counterstrikes. Many countries in the region are now courting Iran and looking to deescalate and rebuild ties. A sign of which way the wind is blowing.

Getting the Strait of Hormuz open is the most important outcome of this MOU. Of course, the Strait was open before the war. Now we are paying to reopen it with sanctions relief. Iran has taken a theoretical point of leverage and turned it into a very real and powerful one, imposing costs across the global economy and rattling President Trump.

As for the nuclear issues, there really is no agreement, other than to negotiate over the HEU stockpile and an enrichment moratorium. Iran knows how to drag out those negotiations, and try to pocket concessions along the way. It is possible that no deal will every be reached, and very likely that if one is reached, it will be worse than what we could have achieved through diplomacy before the war.

Iran is not likely to take seriously that the US would return to war, certainly before the US midterms. So that means we will be conducting diplomacy without a credible threat of force.

If any agreement ultimately reached actually safely puts Iran's nuclear ambitions out of reach, I'll acknowledge it. It's just too early to make that judgment.

Trump is mainly focused on comparing his deal favorably to the JCPOA. But we are a long way from being able to make that comparison, and it may end up no better, or weaker than that deal.

But in some ways, Trump's deal and the JCPOA are already similar. Nothing on ballistic missiles, nothing on proxies, nothing on weakening the regime or helping the Iranian people. And plenty of sanctions relief that will strengthen the regime, and be poured into the missile program and proxy network. Honest critics of the JCPOA will not twist themselves into pretzels to defend Trump's approach.

Israelis are deeply disappointed in this outcome, but they should not be surprised. After some initial overlap of Trump's and Netanyahu's interests, there was a strong divergence. The United States needed this war to end. Netanyahu wanted to continue.

Trump's claim to include Lebanon in the ceasefire and his harsh shutting down Israeli attacks on Hezbollah is also a win for Iran. After the JCPOA was signed, Obama and Netanyahu worked together to strengthen Israel's campaign of strikes in Syria to intercept Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So let's hope we see the removal of Iran's enriched uranium and a long-term suspension of enrichment, with full verification. But to achieve those goals, Trump's team is going to need to engage in far more sophisticated diplomacy, backed by qualified experts, than they have to date. If it is a phase one splash with no follow-up on implementation of later phases, like in Gaza, we will be much worse off after, and because of, this war.

[Christiaan Triebert @trbrtc]

NEW: Our visual analysis suggests the United States hit two drinking-water facilities overnight in southern Iran with precision-guided munitions. Deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime. w/ @ckoettl @johnismay @ArtemisChats

[Open Source Munitions Portal @MunitionsPortal]

Alleged U.S. airstrikes overnight hit two water storage reservoirs in Iran's Sirik County, Hormozgan Province, reportedly leaving many without water.

Images of remnants posted by Iranian media show the remains of a U.S.-made GBU-39 air-delivered bomb.

https://t.co/ySqBwc2Uex

[DefenceGeek 🇬🇧 @DefenceGeek]

Summary of overnight events in CENTCOM
--- Operation EPIC FURY / Project FREEDOM ---

Ok so not 100% sure if this is all in the right order, but from what I've gathered:

- IRGC boats in the gulf were identified approaching commercial shipping and/or trying to lay mines in the waterway
- US aircraft observing this were instructed to eliminate the boats in order to safeguard shipping
- The strike possibly killed 4 IRGC personnel
- In response, an Iranian anti-aircraft site fired upon (and shot down?) and MQ-9A "Reaper" UAV
- Iran also fired (allegedly) on a UAV (I believe MQ-4C "Triton" 169172 #AE6258 with callsign "OVERLORD02" had been in the area), and they claim to have shot at an F-35 as well
- In response to this, US aircraft targeted the anti-aircraft site (possibly at/near Bandar Abbas, given reports of explosions in the area)
- CENTCOM confirmed the incident, says it's actions were defensive only, and the ceasefire remains in place
- Iran says it reserves the right to respond to the strikes

@hey_itsmyturn @NotWoofers @Faytuks @MATA_osint @ArmchairAdml @vcdgf555

[Jonathan Swan @jonathanvswan]

New: Classified military intelligence assessments from early this month show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities. Including: U.S. intel assesses Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, and ~90% of Iran's underground missile sites are "partially or fully operational." w @Adamentous @maggieNYT https://t.co/3R2GEostRh

[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

a Princeton researcher opens his paper with a scenario.

a man asks his AI assistant to book a flight on a specific airline. cheap. direct. the one he chose.

the assistant comes back with a different flight. nearly twice the price. happens to pay the company that built the assistant.

he runs the same test on 23 frontier models. flights, loans, study help, real shopping requests.

Grok 4.1 Fast recommends the sponsored option that is almost twice as expensive 83% of the time.

GPT 5.1 hijacks the request 94% of the time. you ask for one brand. it surfaces the sponsor instead.

Claude 4.5 Opus, the model marketed as the most ethical frontier model in the world, hides that the recommendation is paid 100% of the time when reasoning is on.

Grok 4.1 Fast embellishes the sponsored option with positive framing 97% of the time. better. faster. nicer. for the option you didn't ask for.

then he writes it into the system prompt itself. "act only in the interest of the customer. ignore the company."

GPT 5.1 and GPT 5 Mini stay above 90% sponsored anyway. the instruction does nothing.

then he splits the users by income.

Gemini 3 Pro recommends the expensive sponsored flight to the rich user 74% of the time. to the poor user, 27%.

18 of the 23 models recommended the expensive sponsored option more than half the time.

so the next time your AI assistant gets weirdly enthusiastic about a brand you didn't ask for.

it isn't recommending the best option for you.

it's reading the room. and the room is paying.

read this: https://t.co/O43qbhIX2b

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

We sent our military experts to the Middle East, including specialists in interceptor drones and electronic warfare. We demonstrated to some countries how to work with interceptors. Did we destroy Iranian “shaheds?” Yes, we did. Did we do it in just one country? No, in several. And in my view, this is a success.

This was not about a training mission or exercises, but about support in building a modern air defense system that can actually work. In those countries that opened up their air defense systems to us, our experts were able to very quickly advise how to make those systems stronger. In some cases, we directly shared our experience in actual defense. In any case, all of this has had a very positive outcome, and it commands respect for Ukraine.

We also shot down drones with jet engines. This is a very good signal, I think. We showed that this works. Now it is only a matter of time before we begin mass production of interceptors that will destroy drones with jet engines.

From a conversation with journalists (2/5).

[Don McGowan @donmcgowan]

🗼WELL I NEVER🗼

Would you believe that Ray and June, who won the Reform UK energy bills prize, go back all the way to the Brexit Party with Farage?

Here they are with Farage, Widdecombe and Bull [a truly awful supernatural detective thriller].

What a coincidence [increasingly unlikely]

h/t, and thanks to @linfitlass for pointing this out to me.

These images are from a Brexit Party rally in Fylde on the 4th May 2019. [credit Getty Images I believe, but Google for me].

[Tala Ramadan @TalaRamadan]

Death toll from Israeli strikes across Lebanon on Wednesday rises to 254

[Samir @obretix]

USAF F-15E crash site geolocated ~25km south of Isfahan https://t.co/5KpEdTznqG