John J. Hardy

Macro, FX and key developments both fundamental and even technical across financial markets. Global Head of Macro Strategy with Saxo Bank.

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

COT update on #forex covering the week to 18 August. Ahead of the dollar tumble following last Wednesday’s US Treasury bond buyback announcement, speculators made a third consecutive, albeit modest, weekly reduction in bullish dollar bets.
Overall, the non-commercial USD long against eight IMM futures was reduced by USD 1.3 billion to USD 35.7 billion, with notable buying of CAD and CHF partly offset by selling of JPY and AUD.
Worth noting that when the Dollar Index and the broader Bloomberg Dollar Index last traded near current levels three months ago, the combined dollar long was just USD 5 billion. The subsequent build-up in bullish exposure highlights the number of positions potentially caught offside by last week’s sharp dollar reversal.

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

In today's Saxo Market Call #podcast I join @johnjhardy take a closer look at the commodity space, especially crude oil as hopes for relief from geopolitical tensions fade and how it may be weighing on broader risk sentiment. In addition to copper dynamics, El Niño risks John also sifts through broader equity market dynamics and the risks that we are heading into a bearish correction here https://t.co/ZERzpYwNVH via @saxobank

[John J. Hardy @johnjhardy]

My wife got one of the ice cream makers - I figured it was a gimmick that would end up gathering dust in a cabinet after maybe three uses. Instead, we have it in use all the time a couple of months in - frozen treats both healthy and not so much. The thing churns ripe bananas into a sublime ice cream. Just bananas!

[The Saxo Market Call @saxomarketcall]

Today's Saxo Market Call, featuring at long last @Ole_S_Hansen again as we discuss El Niño impacts, crude oil & precious metals. Also: US CPI release is coming at testy time for US treasuries and possibly wider markets. https://t.co/UtOqlaKDXb With @johnjhardy on hosting duties.

[Michael Green @profplum99]

I was fortunate to know Victor. A wonderfully brilliant and eccentric man who influenced many of us.

Fun story. His younger brother, Roy (whom Victor largely raised), threw a party which my wife and I attended. Victor was part of a crowd discussing the impact of limited liability on corporate equities in the 19th century. Yes, I am an exciting cocktail party discussant.

I mentioned that Gilbert & Sullivan’s “Utopia, Ltd” was written in response to G&S losses to a limited liability promoter of an earlier musical.

A week later, Victor insisted I join his annual Gilbert & Sullivan event. I found myself seated next to Victor for a four hour G&S requiem anthology performance.

Quite the introduction! A man of passionate intensity whose equal we may not see again.

He will be missed.

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

COT on #forex covering non-commercial positioning in the week to 28 July saw the the gross USD long versus eight IMM futures hit a fresh multi-year high near USD 50 billion

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Asked Wednesday which inflation measure he relies on, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gave "the proper, standard answer"—the PCE price index—then immediately qualified it: "Who knows come after next January what we might say about strategy. I suspect the task forces might have something to add."

The comment drew attention from former Fed economists (as did his remarks during his Senate confirmation hearing about looking at trimmed averages).

In a client note Wednesday, JPMorgan's Michael Feroli said the latest comments "seem to confirm suspicions that the task forces are just covers to redefine the inflation challenge away."

This is what Warsh said 15 months earlier in a speech at the IMF: "[F]requent changes to the Fed's metrics—including its professed preferred measures of inflation—are beneath the high standing of the central bank. Central bank credibility is the coin that purchases American economic strength. In Washington, a central banker can ill-afford to be anything other than a straight-shooter."

[John J. Hardy @johnjhardy]

USA at 250 through a Wall Street lens: Where we've been and what comes next. https://t.co/HHY04IhFMO
Here's a little walk down memory lane of Wall Street over the last half of US history, with six quarter-century check-ins and thoughts on what lies ahead for the next one in 2051.

[John J. Hardy @johnjhardy]

Today's John J. Hardy substack post now out, with links and charts teased on today's @SaxoMarketCall podcast. https://t.co/mGbsrvQyhA

[The Saxo Market Call @saxomarketcall]

Today's Saxo Market Call podcast, today talking #AAPL hubris, Samsung titanic cap-ex plans, big week ahead, the double trouble with interpreting US data in new wage of Warsh Fed and more. https://t.co/t7HSe1F1Fx With host @johnjhardy

[The Saxo Market Call @saxomarketcall]

Today's @SaxoMarketCall podcast with @Ole_S_Hansen and Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo talking coming likely "super" El Niño impacts on commodities and equity sectors. Hosted by @johnjhardy https://t.co/e8UgQSng4g

[John J. Hardy @johnjhardy]

Hi @DiMartinoBooth - I would have enjoyed your Top Traders Unplugged appearance even more had you been given more space to develop your points. The most valuable parts of the discussion were clearly yours. I host the @saxomarketcall podcast and would be delighted to have you on for a deeper, uninterrupted conversation on your framework and current market views. Let me know if you are interested.

[The Saxo Market Call @saxomarketcall]

Today's Saxo Market Call podcast, looking at yday's chip pump, SaaS dump, the Trump social post impact across markets, gold, copper and El Niño & more with @Ole_S_Hansen . Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy @johnjhardy https://t.co/ztIjvfgIh3

[John J. Hardy @johnjhardy]

Excellent: https://t.co/vMq67iA169

[John J. Hardy @johnjhardy]

Today's John J. Hardy substack, with links discussed on today's @SaxoMarketCall and chart-of-the-day. https://t.co/84ZlLe78pc

[The Saxo Market Call @saxomarketcall]

Today's Saxo Market Call podcast as this market correction is by no means yet a calamity, although we do have fresh pressure from the USD, rates and geopolitics. https://t.co/hIMDbD7W4q Huge stakes around SpaceX IPO later this week and more.... With host @johnjhardy

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

The continued lack of progress towards restoring normal energy flows from the Middle East is reinforcing expectations of a prolonged period of elevated oil prices. The 2027 average price for both Brent and WTI is now trading near cycle highs, with Brent at USD 81.4 and WTI at USD 76.5, both more than 20% above pre-war levels.

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

EIA's weekly data release for the week ending 22 May showed broad-based declines across U.S. crude and refined product inventories. Total crude oil stocks, including Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) withdrawals, fell by 12.4 million barrels. Refinery demand surged to nearly 17 million barrels per day, potentially limiting export availability as crude exports slowed for a second consecutive week to 4.4 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma - the delivery hub for WTI futures - declined by 2.8 million barrels.

Ahead of the peak summer driving season, gasoline inventories fell to their lowest seasonal level since 2014, while distillate stocks dropped to around 100 million barrels, the lowest level for this time of year in 25 years.

[John J. Hardy @johnjhardy]

Today's John J. Hardy substack post - with the many links discussed on today's @SaxoMarketCall podcast and chart of the day. It's my first post in a while as I have been sidelined with back issues. Thanks for hanging in there to all of my subscribers! https://t.co/t8XzaOVBlj