Met with a fascinating investor this week. Made money in the market, then made multiples transforming the marketing strategy of what most would think of as a “boring” business. Shows that winners tend to win in any market.
Something I told 14 yo: People are going to stop reading books. I wish this wasn't so, but I fear it is. The silver lining in this cloud is that if you're one of the few people who still read, you'll have a huge advantage over everyone else.
Bridgewater just published numbers that should make every frontier lab nervous.
The world's largest hedge fund tested Gemini, Claude, and GPT on six document filtering tasks its investors do every day. Naive prompts scored around 50%. A coin flip. Expert-written prompts pushed accuracy to 78%. Investors needed 80% before they'd trust the system in their workflow, and no frontier model cleared it. GPT 5.4 cost 43% more than 5.2 and was barely more accurate.
So they fine-tuned Qwen3-235B on Tinker instead. 84.7% accuracy. 29.8% fewer mistakes than the best frontier model. At 1/14th the inference cost.
The smartest part is buried in the middle of the paper. Their vendor-labeled training data was riddled with wrong labels, and expert labeling costs too much to run on everything. Their fix: train a model on the noisy dataset, then run it back over its own training data. Any example the model disagreed with got routed to senior investors, because either the example was genuinely hard or the label was wrong. The model's own confusion became a detector for bad labels.
Prompting hit a ceiling for a structural reason. A prompt captures only the judgment an expert can put into words. Twenty years of taste about which central bank memo actually signals a rate move doesn't compress into instructions. It transfers through labeled examples.
Every institution sitting on decades of expert decisions just learned that those archives can train a model that beats the frontier at their specific job. The alpha was in the filing cabinet the whole time.
Palantir CEO Alex Karp on what customers actually want, the real business of frontier labs, and the importance of open source models:
“What the technical customers want is control over their compute, their models, their data stack, and their alpha. They want to know they own the means of production, and it's not being transferred to someone else.”
"Who owns the data? Are the prompts secure? Is this being transferred to you?"
"If it was so valuable, and I can make you a billion dollars, wouldn't I say I'll make you a billion dollars and I want 30%? Why are they charging for tokens if it's so valuable?"
News Release:
Check-Cap: MBody AI Expands Robotics Footprint Across U.S. and Canada
Nasdaq-listed Check-Cap Ltd. (NASDAQ: $MBAI) reports merger partner MBody AI expanding to 11 U.S. states and launching its first deployment in Canada
https://t.co/oiN7TLOtAo
#AI#Robotics
On MFM I asked Scott Galloway how much money it actually takes to feel economically secure. He gave me the formula and then his own number.
- Take what you need to be happy each year. Times it by 25. Assume a 4% post-tax return. That's your number.
- His own burn: $300k to $400k a month.
- $5m a year times 25 means he needs $125m to be economically secure.
He said in his 20s he thought if he ever saved $1m he was done, he'd start writing scripts for Tom Cruise movies. Then he found out how expensive kids, New York, and your own greed glands get.
Not sure where all this is going but pretty amazing @HunterBiden can at once be a top notch shitposter and the support people need to battle addictions
Denise- I say this to everyone. The thing that was killing me more than anything else was not the crack it was the vodka. Alcohol is the worst drug of them all. I was drinking a handle a day while smoking crack. It’s the hardest to stop and the easiest to start. It’s the only drug (outside of benzos) you can die withdrawing from. And I know why you drink. You drink because at first it works. Don’t want to feel the way you feel. Well for people like us we know the answer. But you can stop- but rarely alone. Ask for help. Get honest with someone you trust and tell them you need help. We are never alone. I see you. I hear you. The one thing we all have in common is pain. We think we are alone but we are not. I have faith in you. I really do and I don’t even know you. It’s so much better on the other side.
@fleetingbits If all of BigLaw moves to Harvey doesn’t that drive commoditization? So at minimum some of the spend is marketing?
The real play would be to be acquired by @Costco because every time I read about Kirkland I think Costco is ready to sell me bulk legal services
AI-powered robotics are rapidly moving from concept to commercial reality 🤖
MBody AI is building technology that helps intelligent machines better understand and operate in real-world environments — enabling applications across commercial buildings, automation, and robotics.
Big week ahead in Miami with Centurion One Capital. Looking forward to meeting with some of the top AI and Robotics investors ahead of our planned listing on Nasdaq. https://t.co/xDnuZoGhR5