PARTI

The prediction market livestream platform. Watch, predict, and earn - all in real time.

[PARTI @jointheparti]

Announcing: Parti x @Polymarket 🎉

For the first time ever, viewers can watch a stream and trade directly on prediction markets powered by Polymarket - all without leaving the stream.

For streamers, this unlocks a whole new way to earn.

Pin 📌 a market to your live chat on any topic you're already talking about - and make money every time your audience trades.

[PARTI @jointheparti]

@JUSTcatmeme

[PARTI @jointheparti]

@cz_binance Never deleting this app

[PARTI @jointheparti]

🚨 The Biggest Bitcoin Update Since ETFs 🚨
**The largest sustained buying pressure Bitcoin has ever seen may be upon us. $2M per ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz - paid in Bitcoin. This could be the reversal catalyst that drives Bitcoin back to new ATH's** Keep reading to find out why and check the Bitcoin Straight of Hormuz Demand Shock Analysis chart below!

Financial Times reports that Hamid Hosseini - spokesperson for Iran's Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters' Union - confirmed that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz will now pay a $2M toll per passage, in Bitcoin. Pre-war, conservatively, 36,000 ships transited the Strait annually. At $2M per passage, that's $72B in Bitcoin payments per year 😮 from shipping companies that are not sitting on crypto treasuries. That money comes off the open market. Every year. Continuously.

The Numbers 💹
For context: Bitcoin ETFs brought roughly $15B in new demand in their first year and sent the price from $28K to $73K. The Hormuz toll at full capacity is five times that figure - in a fraction of the time from new buyers. See the chart below - this dwarfs Saylor, the ETFs, Grayscale, and every other major demand catalyst in Bitcoin's history. Combined. And it's per year demand!

Despite its initial founding principles set out in the Bitcoin white paper - to be P2P cash free from central authority - Bitcoin has functioned almost entirely as a store of value. Digital gold. A HODL asset. This would be something different: mandatory, recurring, real-world utility demand at a scale the market has never seen.
This could send the price of Bitcoin skyrocketing to new all-time highs and create a sustainable market of mega buyers. Iran is known to use its low-cost energy for Bitcoin mining - they may already be significant holders and have every incentive to collect, hold, and watch the price rise.

The price is down less than 1% since the news broke. This is the most bullish use case Bitcoin has ever seen and the market didn't flinch. Will it have the opposite effect? Giving governments the excuse they need to crack down, increase taxation, and install new reporting requirements? Bitcoin all time high by December is showing only a 13% chance on Parti / Polymarket. Of course, it's a long shot this proposed system sustains and becomes the new standard, but Trump has already hinted at a joint venture and wanting to create an oil tollway that the US gets a piece of 💵

[Yuri Gubert | LI.FI @Yuri_Gubert]

https://t.co/rg9DaO4mjG

[PARTI @jointheparti]

Oil just posted its biggest single-day gain in six years. $111 a barrel.

If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, what happens next?

Market says normal traffic by end of April is YES 10¢. That's a 90% chance it stays disrupted.

Oil hitting $120 this month? YES 71¢ on Parti and Polymarket.

[PARTI @jointheparti]

Tonight is the Super Bowl for prediction mention markets. 9PM EST live on Parti!

[PARTI @jointheparti]

@cv_alphas unfortunately would have to agree with you there...

[PARTI @jointheparti]

Breaking: Oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped from 130 ships/day in February to 6 in March. Twenty percent of the world's energy - gone.

Will traffic return to normal by end of April? YES 16¢ on Parti. The market says no chance.

If you think Trump's speech tonight changes that, there's money on the table.

[PARTI @jointheparti]

@NotSoEasyMoney @andy8052 If you go to the poker table with $100, you might beat up on the other players and rack up a thousand…If you go to the poker table with $1,000 the better players start to circle for your stack. If you go to the table with $10,000…you’ll most likely get curb stomped 😛

[PARTI @jointheparti]

🚨 You hate to see it...But the numbers don't lie...The current odds of a US ground invasion of Iran by April 30, 2026 are now 66%!! 🚨

Day 31 of Iran War - Here's what the prediction markets are actually pricing

We're a month into the US-Israel Iran campaign and the prediction markets tell an interesting story about where this goes next.

Ground invasion timeline: US forces entering Iran by tomorrow (March 31) is trading at just 6¢ - essentially not happening. But extend that to April 30 and it jumps to 66¢. The market sees a high probability of ground forces within the next month, even as the Pentagon avoids confirming plans.

Ceasefire skepticism: Despite Trump claiming Iran has agreed to "most of" the US 15-point demands, and Pakistan offering to host talks, the ceasefire market tells a different story. Ceasefire by April 15 sits at 18¢. Even by April 30, it's only 30¢. The money is betting heavily against near-term diplomacy succeeding.

Oil chaos: Crude already hit $100 (that market is at 98¢ with one day left). The $105 market is at 27¢ by end of March - unlikely by tomorrow but the trajectory is clear with Brent already past $112. Trump threatening to destroy Iran's oil wells and Kharg Island today only adds fuel.

Regime change: Iranian regime falling by June 30 trades at 16¢. Despite a month of intense bombing including Tehran power infrastructure, the market gives the regime an 84% chance of surviving through June.

The big picture: Markets are pricing sustained military escalation with low confidence in diplomacy. The spread between the March 31 and April 30 ground invasion markets (6¢ vs 66¢) suggests the market sees a major escalation coming - just not this week.

What's your read? Are the ceasefire odds too low given Trump's comments about deal progress?

[PARTI @jointheparti]

WTI just touched $100 again during March. Iran's "toll booth" on the Strait of Hormuz is rewriting global energy.

Crude Oil hitting $100 by end of March was a question a month ago. Now it's YES 76¢ on Parti. $110? YES 25¢. The market is pricing in escalation. Live on Parti 👇

[f⌖ @ohfold]

This was really less than a year ago 😭

[PARTI @jointheparti]

@denisovgp @Polymarket the integration is directly into polymarket.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

Polymarket 🤝 Parti

Stream, trade, and earn by showcasing Polymarket in Parti, all without leaving the stream.

[PARTI @jointheparti]

@Thewheddy @Polymarket yeah, join the parti discord and https://t.co/8xVOzpo9fZ

[PARTI @jointheparti]

Announcing: Parti x @Polymarket 🎉

For the first time ever, viewers can watch a stream and trade directly on prediction markets powered by Polymarket - all without leaving the stream.

For streamers, this unlocks a whole new way to earn.

Pin 📌 a market to your live chat on any topic you're already talking about - and make money every time your audience trades.

[PARTI @jointheparti]

First integrated prediction market livestream now >>

[Faded | Clipur.com @youfadedwealth]

https://t.co/6sqc8nE4ye CEO BRIAN G + $500 Clipathon https://t.co/aBuOaegqRo

[PARTI @jointheparti]

@Claire272116994 Hello, you can delete your account on your profile settings. If you’re having an issue with deleting your account - feel free to submit a support ticket on discord and reach out to Balthier or Dev Marvel and they can get you sorted.

[Faded | Clipur.com @youfadedwealth]

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[PARTI @jointheparti]

@Persy41430289 Coming soon ;)

[PARTI @jointheparti]

🧵 THREAD: Parti Sunday Morning Market Briefing.
1) Trump just gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power plants. Iran's parliament speaker responded by threatening to destroy energy infrastructure across the entire region.

The prediction market is brutally clear on what happens next: