Josh

Globally deploying @sphere. prev @hiframework.

[Sid @sidmvenkat]

Do @Polymarket 's prediction markets and @CMEGroup 's interest rate futures actually agree on what the Fed will do?

I lined the two up minute by minute across all 14 FOMC meetings since Sep 2024, and the answer is mostly yes: +0.91 correlation, with a few mechanical disagreements.

Thread ahead of today’s decision, the first meeting with Kevin Warsh as chair 🧵 1/14

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: $14 trillion BlackRock officially launches Bitcoin Premium Income ETF.

[Sphere Labs @sphere_labs]

Correspondent banking plays hot potato across borders. Variable routes, variable fees, variable timing.

Sphere uses stablecoins to streamline the messy middle for businesses.

Domestic settlement on each end + stablecoins between = cross-border payments cut from days to minutes.

[Josh @joshlitchman]

The power of a simple to-do list is truly inspiring

[Josh @joshlitchman]

@connorking Great for the VO2 max work😇

[zostaff @zostaff]

Bill Mann worked as a quant at AQR. Then at Two Sigma. In September 2024 his non-compete expired, and he started talking.

He breaks down:

> why everyone in the Two Sigma office sits in headphones and stays silent
> how quants used to find edge before ChatGPT existed > why he now runs four different LLMs in parallel just to answer one question

The generation now entering quant trading grew up with GPT-4. They never worked without it.

[Josh @joshlitchman]

@dgt10011 @AdrianUberto @kevinyb @anjan_vinod Congrats Jeff!

[Josh @joshlitchman]

@novora_ @connorking @superformxyz Obviously bullish

[Novora @novora_]

Novora and @superformxyz are announcing a strategic partnership, naming Novora as Superform's capital markets partner.

Today Superform launches SuperformOS, the operating system for programmable vaults. Most onchain vaults still ask users to trust the curator's process: trust the rebalance, trust the pricing, trust that execution stayed inside the mandate. SuperformOS replaces that trust with verification. Transparent mandates, bounded rules-based execution, validator-attested pricing, and an auditable operating history, so a vault can be inspected rather than taken on faith.

This is the same thesis Novora was built on. Institutional capital does not follow marketing, it follows legibility. The reason most onchain yield never clears an institutional diligence process is that the strategy layer is a black box. SuperformOS makes that layer legible by design, which is precisely what turns a vault into something an allocator can underwrite.

Our role is to support institutional go-to-market, distribution and investor relations. A verifiable operating system only matters if the curators, allocators, and distribution partners who can bring real capital actually show up, and that is the work we are running alongside the team: mapping institutional demand, opening the right doors, and building the capital markets motion around the launch.

We are also putting our own stake in the network, bonding and running a validator in the attestation set that prices vault NAV. We do not just advise on the transparency layer. We help operate it.

The next wave of vaults will be defined by what can be verified, not what is promised. That is the standard institutions require, and it is the one we are here to build toward with Superform.

[Dirichlet @0xdirichlet]

SF probably has some of the highest talent/capital density in the world, but increasingly the least unique alpha. The most interesting new ideas of this decade will come from the places that the really smart MIT or Waterloo new grad would never think to reside in.

[Connor King @connorking]

some f/u thoughts:

the active problem is that as agents start taking real actions (eg agentic robinhood — trading on your behalf, managing accounts, paying), the agent's memory of you basically *is the agent. risk tolerance, prior decisions, what worked, what didnt work last week, etc

I think there’s three problems today:

1. trapped — your robinhood agent's memory of you lives in robinhood, your claude memory lives in anthropic. switching = blank slate. lock-in moat for the labs

2. unverifiable — when an agent moves real money "based on what it knows about you," you can't audit what memory it actually used or whether it got tampered with. memory poisoning is already a real attack vector

3. not yours — same data, same value accrual, sits on the lab's balance sheet

the bet is agent memory becomes a portable verifiable user-owned primitive that sits *outside the lab, gets read by whichever model/agent you point at it. matters most when agents start touching things that have real consequences (money, contracts, accounts, etc)

this isn't about helping the labs with their HBM problem, it's about owning the memory layer they currently own by default

[kel. @kelxyz_]

The fun thing about being a third cycle kind of guy is that while there’s a bunch of “death of this industry” content

But at the same time, streets already know of the teams that could completely redefine their sectors within 1.5-3 years

Which happens to be the average amount of time to get to a next raging bull market

[Josh @joshlitchman]

Solana

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

Robinhood chose Arbitrum so yeah this makes sense

[Josh @joshlitchman]

@rsproule looks legit af

[New York Atlantics @NYAtlantics_]

New York Atlantics Presented by @sphere_labs for the 2026 season 🤝

Global game. Global infrastructure.
Read more about the partnership here: https://t.co/LVg3yAyUmj

[Sphere Labs @sphere_labs]

1/ Sphere Labs is now the presenting partner of @NYAtlantics_, the reigning City’s Cup champions.

Why is a cross-border payments company sponsoring a professional padel team?👇

[Caitlin Cook @DeadCaitBounce]

In all my years in this site I never would’ve expected my first true crossover with @litcapital to be padel related

[Josh @joshlitchman]

@0xgaut Been doing this before it wasn’t cool

[Josh @joshlitchman]

@connorking gm 🐬

[Josh @joshlitchman]

@niteshnath Huge my man. Excited for you!