JustOneLap

Money in action. Online for South African traders, investors and everybody else. Tax-free and ETFs.

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

Sign up for our weekly newsletter of goodness every Monday.

Thoughts from Simon Brown, updates on what we published the previous week and invites to events.

https://t.co/wHIJ1cnpXn

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

Those World ETFs getting a lot of love :)

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

Love AI or hate it, it's going to be part of the future.

Want direct exposure?

Here's a list of AI-focused ETFs listed offshore, with the detail to compare them.

https://t.co/Iaactmw2Th

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

The most "juiced" IPO in history listed Friday at $135… and only opened up 10%.

Now a $2.6trn company on ~27x forward sales for FY2028. Terrifying? Less than expected? Offering value on FY28 27x sales?

@SimonPB full take on WorldWideMarkets 682 👇

Sponsored @SBGTraderZA @ShyftGlobal

https://t.co/CI1Fg7sZpo

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

Peace in our time?

A US–Iran ceasefire signs Friday and oil has already collapsed back toward the low 70s. Rand at 16.23, gold holding 4,300, SA inflation cooling to 4.5%.

Are we just heading back to February?

This week's World Wide Markets hosted @SimonPB sponsored @SBGTraderZA @ShyftGlobal
👇
https://t.co/CI1Fg7sZpo

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

World Wide Markets with @SimonPB

Peace in Our Time | Are We Just Going Back to February?

🛢️ US–Iran ceasefire sends Brent toward the low 70s
💵 Rand at 16.23, gold holding 4,300 — EMs back in favour
🏦 SA inflation surprises lower at 4.5%; July fuel cuts coming
🚀 The most-hyped IPO in history opens softer than expected, and maybe it offers value?
📊 Clicks*, MTN, Bidcorp on the move — Mondi at 11-year lows

https://t.co/CI1Fg7sZpo

Sponsored @SBGTraderZA @ShyftGlobal

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

STXNDQ on the JSE tracks the Nasdaq-100 at 0.46% TER - chunkier than QQQM offshore but you buy in rands and can hold it in your tax-free account.

Over a couple of decades that tax saving beats the fee difference comfortably. https://t.co/4nFo6qYtH6

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

QQQ or QQQM? Same Nasdaq-100 index, same issuer.

QQQ costs 0.18%,
QQQM costs 0.15%.

The extra liquidity in QQQ matters if you're trading. If you're a long-term holder, just take the cheaper one.

New post: https://t.co/4nFo6qYtH6

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

Here comes SpaceX. Listing shortly at 3.30pm, code SPCX and trading of both shares and CFDs on @ShyftGlobal at open.

https://t.co/nUewuyAqAB

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

SpaceX lists today at US$1.75trillion+.

Nasdaq's new Fast Entry rule puts it inside the Nasdaq-100 within 15 trading days at ~0.7% of the index.

Want SpaceX exposure? A Nasdaq-100 ETF is the simplest way to get it.

https://t.co/4nFo6qXVRy

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

Building income into your portfolio? We unpack 4 ETFs across local and offshore:

📈 ETFBND – SA Bond 🌍 ETFGGB – Global Govt Bond 🏢 ETFGRE – Global REIT 🏘️ ETFSAP – SA Property

Full chat with @1nvest_SA

https://t.co/zGlQilyNZA

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

Does the classic 60/40 split still make sense in today's rate environment?

That's one of the things Ahmed Motara from @1nvest_SA and @SimonPB dig into — bonds vs REITs, inflation risk, and the yields you can realistically expect.

https://t.co/zGlQilyNZA

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

Three mega IPOs landing at once: SpaceX prices Friday at $135 (SPCX), Anthropic and OpenAI both filed confidentially.

SpaceX wants ~$75bn, Alphabet ~$85bn; inside 10 days. Something has to be sold to fund it.

That's your Micron -16% Friday.

Hosted @SimonPB Sponsored @SBGTraderZA @ShyftGlobal

https://t.co/zTfXtkJ8mN

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

The Nasdaq-100 isn't a tech index. It's the 100 biggest companies on the Nasdaq exchange - banks excluded, that's the whole methodology.

Tech dominates because that's where young tech listed cheaply in the 1970s. Costco and PepsiCo are in there too.

https://t.co/4nFo6qXVRy

[Simon Brown @SimonPB]

My Equity Coverage AI bot went rouge yesterday. Here's the story.

Last week I updated the Equity Coverage AI research to Skill v2.0 (Methodology: v1.7 (JSE framework) was unchanged) and yesterday we did our first initiation research report using the new skill. Lewis was the stock being covered as it recently had results and I hold it.

All seemed to be going well, until we got to step 6 which is a three part process for checking (facts, assumptions and workings using the same AI as a sceptic agent, third party AI and myself). At the first step my sceptic AI agent discovered that the research report numbers (future assumptions) were just copied from an @AnchorCapitalZA report the AI had found.

One source of data is of course the companies investor website, and here Lewis has a research report done by Anchor. My AI bot just copied all the future result assumptions. When challenged it admitted it had done this, then offered to correct by changing just two lines (revenue and margin).

When told it could not use any of the Anchor data it told me that this would require a complete rebuild and this would take "lots of time repeating work already done".

I was like, fine, rebuild from the start. We did and we got a great report. But it seems we need to upgrade the skill to v2.1 and have a section on fair use of third party data.

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

The World Cup kicks off tomorrow. So which stocks win?

@SimonPB ran the data: skip the obvious bets. 84 of 104 games haven't sold out, so hoteliers have zero pricing power.

The retail bump? Marginal.

The real plays are elsewhere; streaming, kit and betting.

Sponsored @ShyftGlobal @SBGTraderZA

👇 https://t.co/zTfXtkJ8mN

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

US 10-year yields above 4%. SA bonds delivering capital AND income. The case for fixed income has rarely looked better.

@SimonPB sat down with Ahmed Motara from @1nvest_SA to talk income that lasts

👇
https://t.co/zGlQilyga2

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

World Wide Markets

Sponsored @SBGTraderZA @ShyftGlobal

Everyone reaches for the obvious World Cup trade; hotels, retailers, restaurants.

So @SimonPB scraped accommodation availability at every stadium-adjacent hotel, and found rooms open everywhere: 84 of 104 games haven't sold out.

No sold-out hotels means no pricing power, and the retail uplift is marginal.

The actual edge is in the kit makers and the betting operators.

Where are you looking for a World Cup market play? Or are you sitting this one out?

https://t.co/zTfXtkJ8mN

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

📺 Income Investing: Building Yield That Lasts with @1nvest_SA

Full video with Ahmed Motara and @SimonPB

https://t.co/zGlQilyga2

[JustOneLap @JustOneLap]

We have a webcast with @1nvest_SA later this morning on generating income from ETFs, focusing on REITs.

11am 👇

https://t.co/JSuIJS9Aoy