Kuleen ◎

PM for liquid portfolio @anagramxyz
Prev: Diplomat @SolanaFndn
I write sometimes at

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

@NoldorHolder @solana @phygitals @ashen_one Not sure what SLAB is but agree the collectibles market on Solana is awesome

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

I've been bearish on L1 / L2 tokens for a long time.

But the only one I could see potentially justifying the valuation and coming back from here is $SOL.

Figured, I'd share my POV given I have the unique vantage point of someone who spent ~5 years as part of the @solana team and now manages a liquid fund that holds no $SOL atm.

My best guess at what the triggers for the @solana / $SOL comeback story are laid out below. No guarantees the triggers happen, but if they do, I think $SOL could [for a third time] run it back turbo.

---------------

1/ Solana facilitates many of the apps and tokens with strong price action in 2026.
--- @Collector_Crypt and $CARDS is already one and I suspect the run will continue. Crazy business
--- I have a strong hunch for what the next breakout will be, but not going to say more atm. Let's just say, the memecoin casino brought the retail energy back to Solana in 2023/2024. I think we will see history rhyme and that casinos of various flavors could bring retail back to Solana

2/ Solana continues to take share from CEXs as the best place for spot trading
--- What's been happening with @sunrisedefi and stuff like:
https://t.co/rXMVYZxZZU is underrated atm
--- Solana is increasingly a great spot venue for tokens of all kinds and if the network can continue growing RWA volumes as well, even better
--- @MetaDAOProject and ownership coins are also a very interesting spot asset ecosystem (of seed stage startups)

3/ One or more perps platform on Solana also gain relevance
--- Whether it's @PhoenixTrade or some other platform I am not sure, but some platform has to make Solana relevant in the most important line of business in crypto
--- I think this is the most uncertain of my triggers

4/ 1+2+3 above also translate into increases in network fees / REV
--- it's not good enough for Solana to be home for financial activity. The network also needs to prove it can monetize that activity.

I am highly confident in 1 and 2 happening. Medium confidence in 4. Least confidence in 3

---------------

If we see the above happening, I think the narrative will turn. Solana will be once again be seen as the L1 with a credible shot at the biggest vision of "house of finance" because it is also making progress in payments and various institutional efforts.

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

@gutomartino @mdudas @CraigBurel @solana Tokenomics are not ideal but that is a secondary consideration to me

If SOL shows evidence of winning trading, I think people will get over the inflation rate

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

@mdudas @CraigBurel @solana ty!

and

🤝🤝🤝

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

@jermywkh @solana @Collector_Crypt @Pumpfun 100%

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

It's not that I don't believe these things will happen, it's more that:

1/ fund is small, so I am not capacity constrained, and in the near term there are other (mostly much smaller tokens) I'd rather own.

If I were a large fund (say 75mm+) I would own $SOL

2/ Lesson I've learned the hard way is that token markets reward growth. "Value" investing often means you just sit in bleeding things for a long time. I've resolved to being willing to pay a higher price to see evidence of growth

To put on the position, I have some specific thresholds, but core idea is:

1. spot and/or perp volumes inflect up (esp tied to not SOL itself, preferably RWAs)

3. We see rough correlation of network fees / REV going up in tandem

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

@defido @RossAngeles @solana yep

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

My guess is Saylor has not sold any more BTC.

A risk mgmt / financial prudence mindset is not what going him and $MSTR to where it is today.

Live by the degen up-only mentality, die by the degen up-only mentality

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

@Pedromiranda @intern @j0hnwang hello liquid fund here

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

And if Saylor does not 🤫🤫😅😅

[Jeff Dorman @jdorman81]

Only one scenario saves bitcoin:native and $MSTR in the short-term.

Saylor has to come out and say (via Monday's 8K, or next Monday's 8K):

"I sold $4 bn of MSTR and BTC... we now have 2.5 years before we have to raise money again... dividends are covered for 2+ years, debt doesn't mature til sept 2028 (puttable in 2027) and that's easy to refinance via more converts".

If he does that, the market rips, and might even rip 20-30%. It once again makes MSTR uninteresting for years, but that's a good thing. STRC probably goes back close to $100, but he won't be able to sell more. And while capital markets might be closed to MSTR for awhile, it at least buys a ton of time, and in that time who knows what other catalysts might pop up.

He should have done this last week instead of that misguided $2.5mm teaser sale.

If he doesn't, and he continues to just wait it out (only has 5 months), or he sells tiny amounts as he goes (just enough to pay each monthly dividend), this selling won't stop

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

If Hyperliquid is Binance perps [no KYC]

Solana is becoming Binance spot [no KYC]

Very cool

[vibhu @vibhu]

Historic day for @solana:

For the first time ever, HYPE did more spot volume on Solana than all centralized exchanges in the last 24 hours.

This is truly insane, IMO. For an asset that didn't exist on Solana until just a few months ago.

ZEC also did more volume than all CEXes (other than the binance ZEC/USDT market).

BTC also posted almost $200m in 24h volume.

My guess: Solana is going to eat global spot trading marketshare in everything.

First from CEXes for all crypto assets. Then from trad spot exchanges for equities.

Lower fees, self custody assets, fully open & transparent markets that anyone can participate in, and a huge amount of distribution through hundreds of front-ends

This is a winning product formula.

[Monkey Rothschild (wassie, verse) @MonkeyCharts]

we have all seen saylors buyside execution

sellside gonna be a movie

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

Pretty cool. More stuff like this is how $SOL gets its mojo back

[SolanaFloor @SolanaFloor]

📊Report: @Solana is now the third largest venue by 24h volume for spot hyperliquid:native trading, surpassing multiple tier one exchanges, including Coinbase and OKX, with hyperliquid:native spot volume on Solana hitting $56M.

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

Shout out to @0xsmac for his TG group

Posts consistently interesting reads

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

Sure, if BTC / majors fall 50% from here, everything likely gets dragged down.

But the massive outperformance of some tokens YTD tells us that nature of token markets are shifting.

If we are not already in the "new paradigm", I think we are in the process of transitioning to it

[Chris Burniske @cburniske]

I don’t see a new paradigm where majors are rotated out of, and select up-and-comers can sustain their swim against an outgoing tide for long. Instead, I think majors are telling us something, and people are finding reasons not to listen.

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

Not sure if AI / privacy coins ripping currently is:

Bullish: because risk appetite is back in coins

or

Bearish: because we're seeing momentum / narrative chasing again and this kind of capital leaves as fast as it comes

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

Issue for Pendle historically has been that majority of it's activity was a function of the circular token economy and as a result, highly cyclical

Cool to see that changing

[Pendle @pendle_fi]

A new RWA category arrives!

Introducing @HastraFi PRIME (Aug 2026).

Real yield backed by real-world Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) lending 🏡

[fiskantes ⭐️🩸 @Fiskantes]

Last 2 years we had the worst bull market in crypto

Now we are in the best bear market

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

@0xsmac I think I know which token this is and I agree.

The annualizing revenues is less the issue imo.

But the token <> equity dynamic is

[Kuleen ◎ @knimkar]

@metaproph3t Let the record show, when I was part of the Solana team, I did my best to do this 🤣