Dr. Kaiser Bengali

Economist

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Reports of upgradation of rail line ML-2 jointly by Pakistan Railways n NLC is most welcome. Suggest creation of Holding Co. owning both entities n integrated 'long distance by rail-short distance by road' freight system. Will result in significant Fx savings.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

World Bank President has said Pakistan needs to create 30 million jobs in next decade. Jobs are created by commodity-producing sectors - agri and ind. Both compromised in last 4 decades to promote a casino economy - supported by Bank policies. Hope the Bank course-corrects.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Dawn Jan 28
Op-ed: "Road to exiting IMF"
Back page: Business associations ad "PAKISTAN'S EXPORT EMERGENCY"
Former: analytically excellent; academically worded
Latter: correct on nuts n bolts
Both skip real issue: Mountain of non-development (incl non-combat defence) expenditure.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Reportedly, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has been invited to join President Trump's Board of Peace. Reportedly, the fee for joining is UD$ one billion.
In the event the invitation is accepted, who will under-write the interest-loaded loan for it? World Bank? China? KSA? UAE?

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Commend AJK government for abolishing 7 Ministries.
Islamabad n provincials can learn frm Muzaffarabad.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Gohar Ejaz, a former Minister, has said the Debt crisis is on account of Expenditure, not Taxes.
Some of us have been saying this for the last 25 years.
Absolutely essential for restoring economic stability is reduction of non-dev, including non-combat defence, expenduture.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Saddened to hear of Dr Shamshad Akhter's demise. She was always graceful n it was a matter of pride to see her rising to key positions internationally as well.
Pray she rests in heavenly peace n may her family find the strength to bear this loss.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

In early Dec, Islbd based Kashmiri journalist floated the idea of including AJK n GB in NFC, proposing constitutional mechanism: adding two words "and territories" after "provinces" in Article 160.
Now Nawaz Sharif has formally made the proposal. Will Parliament follow through.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

BISP story
https://t.co/rZYBbw5u8C

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Now ... NFC to achieve social goals
2. For horizontal distribution,
a. add 'Inverse of cultivated area' as 5th criteria: benefit B'tan n KP
b. add 'Inverse of fertility rate'; promote population control.
c. add 'share of area under forest'; further environmental objectives

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

(continued)
Now it is time to ... achieve social goals.
1. Verticle distribution: split Divisible Pool into Direct n Indirect taxes parts. For former, fix fed-prov shares at 80-20%; for latter at 20-80%
Aim: Induce fed govt to target direct taxes, reduce taxation regressivity

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Upto the 7th NFC, the debate was about 'who gets what?'. That was necessary, given the then lopsided inequitable distribution of resources. 7th NFC corrected it somewhat.
Now it is time to move for NFC to achieve social goals.
(continued)

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

The IMF report on state of governance in Pakistan is damning for all governments that have been power. Let there be no cause for optimism, however. The ruling elite, responsible for it all, cannot be expected to implement remedies at cost to their own interests.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

The Pak- Afghan armed stand off n border closure has rendered thousands of daily wage workers unemployed in district bordering Afghanistan. If prolonged, they will become the pool for Taliban terrorists to recruit.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

There r thousands of families, including that of daily wage workers, in districts bordering Afghanistan, that r dependent on income frm cross border trading. Current border closure is costing them their livelihood. Those strategizing war games may plz consider their plight.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Reportedly, a federal Minerals Division is proposed to be created.
This would be unconstitutional, as minerals - all minerals - are a provincial subject.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

The proposed 27th Amendment is toxic in its entirety. The proposal to allow reduction of provincial share in federal tax revenues will hurt all provinces, Punjab the most.
For every Rs 100 reduced, Punjab will lose Rs 52, Sindh Rs 24, KhyberPakhtunkhwa Rs 14 n Balochistan Rs 9.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Yet another game changer!
Now it's the blue economy
Whatever happened to the CPEC, SIFC etc game changers?
How long will this country be smoke screened with false statistics, false hopes?

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Our Defence Minister's abrasive language is utterly unbecoming
Afghanistan may be responsible for terrorism
But it is a neighbour whom we cannot live without
And millions of families in both countries share family ties
Respect for acceptable norms of behaviour is called for.

[Dr. Kaiser Bengali @kaiserbengali]

Parliamentary approval of all Agreements with any external entity is essential to prevent closed door Agreements like the one that gave away Gwadar port for a mere 9% share in port revenues or the disastrous 1979-80 decision to join the US war against USSR in Afghanistan.