Kaleb Nygaard

Armchair Fed Historian | currently @Visa | previously @YPFSatYale @chicagofed

[Steven Kelly @StevenKelly49]

@DanAwrey And assuming working printers? No wonder the Fed was behind at the beginning of the financial crisis:

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

@PeterContiBrown ht @StevenKelly49 https://t.co/Fu02X2fx81

https://t.co/ZWsSmGkTCS

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

Dalle3 channeling its inner Milton

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

Myyyyyy goodness Dalle3 finally did it. I've been dropping "inflation dragon rests on the Federal Reserve building in DC" into every single AI image generator (and iteration) for a year. They all sucked. So bad. These not only suck, but they are each so 👩🏼‍🍳😘

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

The Inflation Dragon

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

@StevenKelly49 haha, so FRASER has them broken out by meeting and they meet sometimes every day. For an earlier project I combined every mtg from 1966 into a single pdf that was 5107 pages long. Which, yes, is very long. But FOIA office use an online portal (not email) so should totally work ha

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

The Fed Board meeting minutes are insanely useful and interesting materials. Until now, they’ve only made public to 1966 (https://t.co/igtZm3yzal)

I will soon extend that to 1967 🎉 🎉

But first I’ll have to somehow get them off……the CD the Board is mailing to me 😂

[Steven Kelly @StevenKelly49]

This one-year, in-residence program gives financial stability professionals formal training in:

• financial crisis management
• global financial regulation
•central banking and monetary economics
• macroprudential policy
•crisis communications

and more!!

[Steven Kelly @StevenKelly49]

Next year's application for our master's degree in financial stability is OPEN!!

This program is for professionals thinking about systemic risk at central banks, treasury depts, financial institution risk groups, etc

Please share w/ anyone interested! DMs open for any questions

[Victoria Guida @vtg2]

Fun fact: Fed officials’ forecasts are anonymous to each other as well (Powell’s colleagues don’t know which “dot” is his) https://t.co/qgnBGtmvfz

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

@ZaringDavid @StevenKelly49 ohhh, nice! last year I went back through all the annual reports to pull out audit firms. Law firms would obviously not be quite as straight forward to pull the data. But seems totally possible. David, add it to our list of things to do together some day! https://t.co/hglexTXQXC

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

A #FedThread and some new data on Federal Reserve Board Audits 🤓🧮

1/10

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

Nice and clean little graphic here!

[Ann Saphir @annsaphir]

Where will the Fed stop, and how long will it hold? Fed policymakers say the data will guide them. Here's a snapshot. https://t.co/49hiFMUAzX

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

“The Anguish of a Central Banker” Burns 1979

“The Triumph of Central Banking?” Volcker 1990

If Powell pulls this off, his 2026 post-retirement speech can remove Volcker’s question mark.

[Jeanna Smialek @jeannasmialek]

Could we get that soft landing after all?

Fed officials will be careful about declaring victory, but the tantalizing possibility that we could hang onto a solid labor market + some growth is coming into view. And with it, points for debate:

(1/2)
https://t.co/r28JCgyVbE

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

T-50 days to the Jackson Hole symposium 🤯

[Steve Matthews @SteveMatthews12]

The hunt for a new president of the Kansas City Fed has turned into a marathon that’s days from becoming the longest search this century. The big question: why so long?
https://t.co/StihUtcZFn via @economics

[Steven Kelly @StevenKelly49]

And it's certainly not about SVB dropping its rate hedges. The rate losses are mostly a subplot.

Banks don't typically hedge their rate risk, and the way banks' take rate risk isn't really the textbook definition way it's been discussed.

I offer a parable of the corn producer:

[Steven Kelly @StevenKelly49]

NEW note out — “The Macro Story of SVB Isn't Just About the Fed”

https://t.co/rUJT955xNK

[Steven Kelly @StevenKelly49]

Zoltan announces to @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart that he’s starting his own firm: https://t.co/hucvs3bQ92

And this tweet officially comes full circle:

[Steven Kelly @StevenKelly49]

@KalebNygaard @ctorresreporter Her nod to the “expedited timeframe” also seems to be echoing your earlier comment expressing concern about the choice of deadline for the report:

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

The politicization of bank supervision and regulation takes its next logical step. Like I told @ctorresreporter when the report first came out.

https://t.co/deUok8gEBj

[Steven Kelly @StevenKelly49]

Whoa. Gov Bowman coming out swinging on the bank failure postmortems:

“Much of this work was prepared internally, by Federal Reserve supervision staff, relying on a limited number of unattributed source interviews, and completed on an expedited timeframe with a limited scope.”

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

Welcome to the club, my friend!

[Kaleb Nygaard @KalebNygaard]

In honor of @TheEconomist cover this week...

A sampling of 50 years of inflation on the cover of major magazines (18 in total)

[1/6]