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Karen Webster
@karenmpd
CEO of Market Platform Dynamics, CEO of @pymnts, Innovation Advocate, author of the NEXT Newsletter.
Boston, MA
Joined January 2009
562 Following
13.2K Followers
22.3K Posts
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The future of payments isn't a faster button or smarter wallet. It's no button at all.
As shopping moves from online and apps to agents and agentic commerce, digital wallets could become the Palm Pilot of payments: https://t.co/Zfj96QaX3V
In an agentic world, consumer prompt replaces the not that always relevant guesswork that wallets once called personalization.
Join the conversation in this NEXT newsletter where we’ll discuss how:
- The wallet-centric world view is already being challenged by infrastructure that doesn't need wallets at all.
- The Google/PayPal partnership feels like a defensive play. Google’s real game should be monetizing agentic commerce.
- Networks and issuers have built the real foundation for agentic commerce: intelligent credentials that make payment decisions autonomously.
How do you see it?
Until NEXT time.
Thank you to the 17k+ subscribers who’ve already said yes to what’s next.
John Ternus has been Apple's CEO for a week. On Wednesday he gives his first keynote.
The media has already spilled the beans on most of what's on the slides. Three premium iPhones, including a foldable with a primo price point. No base iPhone until spring. Higher prices. Maybe AirPods with cameras (What??). Maybe a home hub.
It's a hardware event. He'll be great at it.
But the hardware isn't the question. Tim Cook's last quarter was a record and the stock dropped 6% anyway, because nobody could explain how Apple's AI becomes a business. The App Store commission is under pressure on four continents. The Google search check has to be rebid every year. And the AI on the phone belongs to someone else’s model.
So here's what I'm listening for on Wednesday.
Does he talk about Apple's AI, or AI on Apple? Does Siri get a business model, or a souped up demo? Does Wallet get real airtime? What does he say about Google, now its AI supplier and its biggest Services customer, and OpenAI? How does he justify the prices? Value from Siri? Or a fancier piece of hardware to hold in your hand, stick in your ears or sit on the kitchen counter.
Full piece here: https://t.co/4ePVy74VK5
#AppleEvent
No one knows exactly how AI will reshape the economy. What matters is building better ways to measure what’s changing, earlier and more precisely.
Today, PYMNTS and @cryptocom announced AI Prediction Market Contracts. Beginning in September, more than 20 regulated event contracts will go live as part of an initial phased launch, with additional contracts to follow: https://t.co/XddCv90uvY
The contracts will settle against independently developed PYMNTS Intelligence data measuring how consumers and businesses are actually using AI, what it’s replacing and where its economic impact is beginning to show up.
We’re not claiming perfect foresight. No one should. But after nearly 30 months of continuous measurement, we believe we’ve built a rigorous foundation for turning broad claims about AI’s impact into specific, measurable outcomes that a market can price.
This took an enormous amount of work. I’m grateful to our partners at @cryptocom - and Joe Anzures, Evan Walman and Steve Humenik - for seeing the opportunity and building it with us.
I especially want to thank Matt Albrecht and Yvonni Markaki, along with the entire PYMNTS Intelligence team, whose rigor and persistence made the underlying data and methodology possible. And a shout out to our marketing, social and editorial teams for taking a complicated idea and bringing it to life so clearly on the site.
This is an important new chapter for PYMNTS Intelligence. It’s also just the beginning. Being first is worth noting. Earning the market’s confidence is what will matter. The real test starts when the contracts begin trading, and we intend to earn the confidence this market requires.
AI disruption already has plenty of forecasts and opinions. In September, we’ll begin to see what those opinions are worth.
Learn more and sign up for alerts: https://t.co/iAIOuFIUjV
On June 30, an independent company called Open Standard launched a dollar stablecoin, Open USD, and 140 of the biggest names in money signed on. Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, BNY, Coinbase, Stripe. Circle's stock fell as much as 17% the same day. The market clearly read it as more than a press release.
Most of the commentary is fixed on one question: does OUSD crush Circle?
That's a fair fight to watch. It isn't mine.
Mine is whether a standard built this way, one billed as an independent consortium, but running on a chain Stripe co-incubated, minted by a firm Stripe owns, onboarded through a company Stripe acquired, and defaulted to millions of Stripe's merchants, can actually get adopted.
The name says consortium. The infrastructure says something different.
I ran it through the two tests every payment standard has to clear. FIT (Friction, Inertia, Time) and Ignition. And against the two standards that show how these things really scale: FIDO (won because nobody lost) and EMV (won because incumbents could force it thru a liability shift). OUSD has neither. Its economics are rivalrous, and it's convened by a challenger with no lever to make the powerful cede.
That doesn't close the door. It means OUSD needs a third path. A forcing function compelling enough that not adopting becomes the expensive choice. It's betting shared reserve yield is enough.
The launch answered the easy question. Can you assemble an impressive coalition and grab a headline. Every hard question stays open.
A rose, to paraphrase Juliet, that maybe smells as sweet. But Juliet never had to ask in whose garden it was growing.
🔗 https://t.co/KmhtgUWpZ0
Who to follow
💡 Karen Webster makes the case for why agents are the anti-influencer.
In her latest NEXT piece, the payments and AI economy expert writes:
"The instant it takes a commission to surface one product over a better-fitting one, it stops being your agent and becomes the brand's. That conflict is the thing direct selling never had to resolve, because in direct selling the conflict was visible."
Find out what NEXT right here: https://t.co/PTjicMnedg
I really didn’t plan to write a 5,133 word piece over the weekend but that’s how it ended up. I hope that spoiler alert doesn’t spoil your interest in wanting to read it!
Here’s why it ended up that way.
The more I got into the latest PYMNTS Intelligence data on consumer AI adoption, now seven months in a row examining the under-reported nuances in adoption and usage, the more “so what about this” questions it raised. The more interrogation of the data I was able to do with the team, the more insights I uncovered, and the more dots I was able to connect for the hypotheses that I wanted to test. My curiosity about what the data revealed seemed insatiable, until I had to stop thinking and start writing.
Think of this piece as an AI play in eleven acts, each connected to the other until the end when the curtain comes down, with a tease for what the sequel might be about.
So, that is what awaits those whose own curiosity beckons them to dive in. After all, great research drives great insights and starts some amazing conversations.
I hope we can start a few of our own, right here. About the relationship between the intensity of AI usage and adoption on the devices and operating systems consumers use to access AI models, and how the relationship between operating systems and handsets may be the inspiration for the next competitive play, yet to be determined.
And 5,133 word articles to be written!
Read it all right here: https://t.co/mKtC6oY0vy
The credit industry spent decades competing for something consumers were never actually optimizing for.
Top of wallet.
Points. Miles. Cash-back ladders. Category bonuses.
All designed to make one card the default.
But consumers weren’t really trying to maximize rewards. They were trying to manage their cash flow.
Most households already run a portfolio of credit tools, cards, installments, BNPL, store financing, and they route purchases between them depending on where they are in the pay cycle and what keeps their finances balanced.
The industry framed that behavior as a competition between products.
Consumers see something different.
They see tools for managing the gap between income, bills and surprises.
Which is why the idea of “top of wallet” starts to break down in an agentic commerce world.
If an intelligent agent is making the payment decision, it doesn’t care which card sits at the top of an app. It simply picks the option that produces the best financial outcome in that moment.
So the next battle in credit probably isn’t about loyalty, it is about which credential can optimize cash flow at checkout.
The card consumers remember may matter less than the one that does the most work for them in the background.
And, holy cow, won’t that make the payments ecosystem come alive!
It's all in the latest NEXT Newsletter: https://t.co/HqYlihhIhS
The credit industry spent decades competing for something consumers were never actually optimizing for.
Top of wallet.
Points. Miles. Cash-back ladders. Category bonuses.
All designed to make one card the default.
But consumers weren’t really trying to maximize rewards. They were trying to manage their cash flow.
Most households already run a portfolio of credit tools, cards, installments, BNPL, store financing, and they route purchases between them depending on where they are in the pay cycle and what keeps their finances balanced.
The industry framed that behavior as a competition between products.
Consumers see something different.
They see tools for managing the gap between income, bills and surprises.
Which is why the idea of “top of wallet” starts to break down in an agentic commerce world.
If an intelligent agent is making the payment decision, it doesn’t care which card sits at the top of an app. It simply picks the option that produces the best financial outcome in that moment.
So the next battle in credit probably isn’t about loyalty, it is about which credential can optimize cash flow at checkout.
The card consumers remember may matter less than the one that does the most work for them in the background.
And, holy cow, won’t that make the payments ecosystem come alive!
It's all in the latest NEXT Newsletter: https://t.co/HqYlihhIhS
A generation of workers is rewriting the rules of getting paid. And the financial system is still operating on a schedule built for 1985.
Income no longer arrives every other Friday. It arrives per shift. Per trip. Per task. In real time.
Nearly half of U.S. disbursements now move instantly. Among Gen Z, 78% received at least one instant payout in the past year. For 60 million Americans working across logistics, hospitality, retail, construction and platform-based roles, the timing of their paycheck isn’t a convenience issue. It’s a liquidity requirement.
This isn’t a gig story.
It’s not even a payroll story.
It’s a structural shift in the architecture of earning. And it has direct implications for banking, lending, platform design and GDP itself.
• The rails for real-time money exist. The question is whether the institutions sitting between workers and their earnings will treat instant access as a baseline expectation. Or a premium feature.
• The transactional worker is already managing cash flow like a CFO.
Now the financial system has to catch up.
Here’s how I see it: https://t.co/qgimvFKsTv
Spoiler alert. It’s a tad long. 😊
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Mark Twain was not the person who originally said that he would have written a shorter piece but it would have taken more time. That anecdote belongs to French mathematician, Blaise Pascal who used those words (more eloquently stated) in the 17th century. It’s a little fitting for my annual opus on what’s in store for the year ahead.
I didn’t start out to write 10 essays on 10 different topics, but that’s how it ended up. I actually did start out writing a few short pieces (well, for me anyway) on topics that I thought would shape payments, commerce and the AI economy this year. But then, one short piece, led to another and then eight more after that.
As it turns out, my shorter pieces ended up taking a lot of my time over the holidays.
I then turned it into a series that I am calling What 2026 Will Make Obvious.
Because no one has time to read 13k words end to end, I am releasing these essays two at a time. Little surprises every day to spark conversation and debate. And then an eBook at the end to memorialize all of them.
You’ll see that I start my thesis by using a quote written by T.S. Eliot in 1942 as he was reflecting on the state of the world at that time. It was in the midst of WWII. He posited that in a time of such change, old words that worked in one year no longer capture the essence of the times in the next. That new voices are needed to give new meaning to what is the future.
It is with that sentiment that I approached each of these 10 essays. That in such exciting and dynamic times, in this first year that will start the last half of this decade - last year’s words can’t even begin to capture the potential of what this new year will bring.
I don’t think of these essays as predictions, but rather my observations and insights. A look around the corner at what may lie ahead. What I see in the data, what I hear others talk about and reflect on, what I read and how I interpret what it all means.
So, TADA! Today we begin with the first two:
1. Tokenized Deposits Steal Stablecoin Buzz — and the Business Model
2. Commerce Gets Its Voice
You can check back here where we'll be releasing the rest: https://t.co/DXH5M28t1z
I would love to know what you think. To hear your voice.
Until NEXT time.
If PYMNTS were in the business of naming a person of the year (we are not), our vote in 2025 would be the chatbot.
Not the tech. Not the platforms. Not even the architects who built them. But that conversational interface that nearly two billion people every month show up to at the prompt and start a conversation about something.
2025 will go down as the year that nearly two billion people (and counting) decided that the most natural way to navigate the digital and physical economy wasn’t through apps, search bars, or screens, but through GenA-facilitated conversation.
A conversation that Alexa, Siri, and Google Assistant had promised but couldn't provide. A conversation that’s becoming the interface layer of the economy itself.
Every week, nearly 900 million people show up to talk to ChatGPT. And they drive 2.5 billion queries every day. It took Google 13 years to reach that threshold. Evidence that consumers now turn to the chatbot to discover products, research purchases, manage money, plan travel, navigate healthcare and organize daily life.
That’s why I think that chatbots are What’s Next for the digital economy, and why they deserve the“person” of the year nod.
Plus mine even helped me create the cover my friendly chatbot now graces!
Would love to know how do you see it.
Until NEXT time.
https://t.co/7XZe9OaFDQ
PYMNTS turns 16 today. Our sweet sixteen.
When we started, the iPhone was brand new, “fintech” wasn’t part of the vocabulary just yet, and we were still swiping our cards and paying with cash in stores.
Sixteen years later, we’re still in awe of the innovation that has changed how the world pays and gets paid. And of the innovators whose vision for using new technology to deliver a more connected economy continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible.
I’m incredibly proud of what we’ve built. And so grateful to our amazing team, partners, and community who’ve been part of our journey.
Thanks for being with us every step of the way. I can’t wait to see – and share - what’s next.
Athena Capital Investment Partner Serena Dayal had some practical advice for companies trying to navigate and invest in advanced AI where, as she says, the technology changes every three to six months. Her advice – invest in learning, know what you really should know, and then test and learn.
Basically, don’t fear the fear of missing out.
That was just one of the insights that Serena shared when we spoke last week as part of the PYMNTS B2B AI virtual event series. Like that the mundane, not the moonshots will drive big impacts when using AI and that exact data may turn out to be really valuable. And what she tells Boards, when they ask (and even when they don’t) about how and when to invest.
It was a great conversation. See for yourself here: https://t.co/wHsvMVy9YZ
Innovation is the result of the “aha” moments that drive outcomes at scale. And GenAI and agents will deliver more than we’ve ever seen before: https://t.co/wkTkzsP3Oz
Like for instance the aha moment when Misfits Market founder and CEO Abhi Ramesh decided that he could be the Amazon of perishable commerce.
And those aha moments when people inside of firms and governments take risks when the odds are long and the payoff uncertain and stick their necks out as David Evans writes.
And the aha moments to come when companies first learn and then apply the power of advance AI to their businesses that Serena Dayal said is how AI will drive innovation and transformation.
Join the conversation in this NEXT Recap where you’ll find:
▪️ “Stick Your Neck Out.” from David Evans’ Catalyst Series
▪ “Sustaining Perishable Commerce.” w/ Misfits Market’s Abhi Ramesh
▪️ “Time Equity” from the NEXT newsletter
▪️ “B2B Payments: Boring No More” from the kickoff of B2B Payments 2025
▪️ “Working Capital Efficiency Over Everything.” w/ Remitly's Vikas Mehta
▪️ “Pouring Agents Into the Inbound Sales Funnel.” w/ Spara’s David Walker & Zander Pease
▪️ “Embrace the Mundane Not Just the Moonshots.” w/ Athena Capital Investment Partner Serena Dayal
Until NEXT time.
The rise of time as capital is unfolding as GenAI expands capacity: https://t.co/AJLU1JFvHM
Billions of people are gaining new "time equity."
Every free minute becomes a new potential opportunity in the economy. Time arbitrage is the newest form of capital efficiency, turning hours into capital.
Join the conversation in this NEXT newsletter, exploring how GenAI:
▪️ Frees trapped capacity the same way financial innovation once freed trapped capital.
▪️ Helps people create more “aha” moments.
▪️ Turns time into GDP growth. Across 163 million U.S. workers, that’s more than a $1.9 trillion productivity dividend, equal to 6.4% of the U.S. GDP.
When people gain time, they innovate, and with GenAI, they can now think at the speed of their ideas.
How do you see it?
Until NEXT time.
Thank you to the 18k+ subscribers who've already said yes to what's next.
In his latest piece, David Evans makes a compelling case that prosperity depends on catalysts. The people who take risks when the odds are long and the payoff uncertain.
Neil McElroy at P&G wasn’t a founder or CEO when he rewrote the rules of brand management. And yet, his ideas helped create one of the world’s most powerful corporate playbooks. And later, DARPA, the seed of the internet.
The same principle applies today. Whether in AI, payments, or policy, progress depends on those willing to “stick their necks out.”
It’s a reminder that every ecosystem needs more catalysts, not just entrepreneurs.
Read David’s latest essay: Why Economies Need People Willing to Stick Their Necks Out https://t.co/CjhYI2R98L
From crooked carrots to innovating a new model for how perishable commerce works online.
In the latest Monday Conversation Abhi Ramesh takes us inside @MisfitsMarket’s mission of creating a “new type of grocery store,” and the two big changes that power that goal:
1. How Misfits works directly with farmers and manufacturers to buy what traditional retail can’t or won’t.
2. A “Fulfilled by Misfits” B2B play that commercializes perishable infrastructure, logistics and fulfillment from the ground up.
Join the conversation and find out What’s Next for Misfits as they re‑wire how perishable goods move from farm and factory to a national network to the consumer or businesses’ front door.
It’s all right here: https://t.co/q13mm2FCDE
"We need to step away from that very traditional mindset lens of looking at commercial cards as just another card.”
That advice from Abhishek, global head of B2B Acceptance at @Visa Commercial Solutions, is from our latest chat that centered around virtual card adoption, recorded ahead of Monday’s launch of the 2025-2026 Growth Corporates Working Capital Index.
Abhishek says sparking interest starts with education, and continues with reframing the virtual card conversation as one about business improvement tools, rather than payment products.
Checkout the preview, and if you haven’t already dive into the full dynamic Index where CFOs and Treasurers can personalize the report for their region and industry to see how they and they peers are performing.
It’s all right here: https://t.co/7SxWKsuVMZ
GenAI’s adoption curve is a vertical line: https://t.co/W0AIXgkrN3
GenAI broke the dependencies that once dictated how quickly innovation was created, used and adopted.
Unlike other technologies that began with business adoption, GenAI adoption started with consumers.
Join the conversation in this NEXT newsletter where we’ll discuss how:
- All GenAI needed was a web browser or mobile app downloaded.
- GenAI is powered by the endless possibilities of what consumers and businesses can do with it.
- The ROI of GenAI is the acceleration of innovation itself.
- Consumers not only dove into GenAI headfirst, they set the expectations businesses must now race to meet.
How do you see it?
Until NEXT time.
Thank you to the 18k subscribers who’ve already said yes to what’s next.
After a few sneak peeks and some cool teaser videos trailers last week, today’s the day! The 2025-2026 Growth Corporates Working Capital Index is now live: https://t.co/7SxWKsuVMZ
Growth Corporates are businesses with annual revenues of between $50M and $1B – some may call them middle market firms and this year the study included responses from nearly 1500 CFOs and Treasurers in 23 countries and across 12 industry sectors.
What’s really cool about this year’s report launch is that the “report” is really two things:
1. It is a Dynamic Report that CFOs and Treasurers can play around with and personalize for their region and industry to see how they and they peers are performing.
2. It is a Benchmarking Calculator that CFOs and Treasurers can complete (in a few minutes) to get a personalized report with their own Index score, comparisons to peers and suggestions for improving their working capital efficiency.
So, this year the launch is more than a static set of charts nestled between a lot of words. In the spirit of efficiency, it is an efficient set of deliverables that give the CFOs and Treasurers their own playbooks for getting the max performance from their working capital strategies. And the bankers they lean on to help them.
► Like to see whether they, too, are saving an average of $19M because their working capital efficiency is so strong
► Or whether their use of AI to boost cash flow visibility bumps that savings even higher
► Or whether they were one of the Adaptive CFOs who tapped sources of on demand working capital, like virtual cards, to fund unplanned growth and turn volatility into a competitive advantage for their businesses.
The 2025/2026 Growth Corporates Working Capital Index is a Visa Report produced by PYMNTS Intelligence. This is year three of the annual collaboration.
So, now the data is here. What CFOs and Treasurers - and their bankers - do with it starts now.
I’m excited to hear what you learn.
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