Atul Kumar, PhD

Fellow, National Security & China Studies @orfonline, Associate Member @csc_sydney; Earlier @GAIGriffith, @UQ_News; PhD @MonashUni; Teaching/Tracking War, China

[Atul Kumar, PhD @katul02]

Happy to have edited the second edition of @orfonline's special report on 'Critical Trends in India's National Security' with @SameerP_IND. The report covers #China, #jammukashmir #Northeast, #defence, #LWE, #cybersecurity, among others.
https://t.co/cpQBRAVHl6

[Atul Kumar, PhD @katul02]

@orfonline publishes the third issue of #BeijingScan.

https://t.co/ezZWWvjpvk

[Atul Kumar, PhD @katul02]

@orfonline publishes the third issue of #BeijingScan.

https://t.co/ezZWWvjpvk

[Tanya Dave @TanyaaDave]

China 🇨🇳 : State contorlled CCTV after all! A Sichuan netizen discovered that the river water at their doorstep had turned yellow due to heavy rain, yet in CCTV's live broadcast footage, the river water appeared crystal clear and blue couldn't help but be utterly floored with admiration.

[ANI @ANI]

The Department of War announced that the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) will officially restore its name to the U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM).

[Jay Tarriela @jaytaryela]

Beijing accuses us of “hyping.” Let us be precise about what actually happened. We observed a structure inside Bajo de Masinloc. We documented it, dated it, geolocated it, and released the aerial imagery to the public. That is not hype — that is transparency. And transparency is only threatening to the party that has something to hide.

To “hype” something is to exaggerate or invent it. We did neither. The imagery speaks for itself, and we put it in front of the Filipino people, the region, and the international community precisely so that no one has to take our word for it — or Beijing’s. The fact that China’s instinct is to attack the reporting rather than explain the structure tells you everything. What is irresponsible is not a coast guard doing its job and informing the public. What is irresponsible is the unilateral placement of structures in another country’s exclusive economic zone, in open defiance of the 2016 Arbitral Award — and then calling the act of documenting it a provocation.

And there is a reason we cannot simply accept Beijing’s description of these as “normal activities.” We have heard this before. When the People’s Republic of China first occupied Mischief Reef in 1995, it assured the world that the structures it was putting up were nothing more than shelters for its fishermen. Today, Mischief Reef is a fully militarized artificial island — runway, hangars, radar, missile capabilities — sitting squarely inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. The “fishermen’s shelter” was the cover story.

So when China waves away the structure at Bajo de Masinloc as “normal,” it is asking the region to forget its own record. That is precisely why these actions cannot be taken at face value.

If China genuinely wants to be believed, there is a simple way to show it: pull out. Remove the platform, halt the installation of buoys/communication towers, and respect the 2016 Arbitral Award and waters that are legally ours. Anything less only confirms the pattern — that China’s assurances at Bajo de Masinloc today are worth exactly what its word at Mischief Reef proved to be three decades ago.

The choice belongs to Beijing. It can preserve what little good faith the region and the international community still extend to it, or it can keep proving why that trust was misplaced to begin with.

[Bill Hayton @bill_hayton]

If the structure inside Scarborough Shoal is occupied by people, then this is a critical moment. If China occupies Scarborough Shoal it will be a clear violation of the Declaration of Conduct and if the US does nothing, this will be the moment that Trump lost the South China Sea.

[Tuneer Mukherjee @mutuneer]

#NewRelease @orfonline launches the The Defence Cable, a monthly insight on #militaryaffairs & #defencetechnology from around the world. The 1st issue is now live. It surveys developments pertinent to contemporary strategic affairs. @ProfHarshVPant https://t.co/6sNdCOTAvS

[Harsh V Pant @ProfHarshVPant]

Today's #AmbassadorsRoundtable hosted by @orfonline featured Amb. Meera Shankar, @PankajSaran11 & @JawedAshraf5. The stellar panel focused on @marcorubio's visit to New Delhi & its implications for 🇮🇳-🇺🇲 bilateral relations & the path ahead.

[Igor Sushko @igorsushko]

Ukraine's small penetration bomb that can be dropped by drones.
Should be effective for punching through roofs, light fortifications, vehicle armor, and trench covers before detonating.

[Atul Kumar, PhD @katul02]

@Joshi_Uncle @IndianExpress @ieopinion A powerful piece ! Well written! 👍🏼

[Sameer Saxena @NwcSam]

🚨 #Fakenews #Pakistani handles. This fabricated story is baseless propaganda. Zero connection to me. This is classic ISI-style #cognitive #warfare — manufactured sleaze, filth on social media to try to divide us.They can’t face us at sea, so they try on social media. #LOL!

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

U.S. Army Requests 857 THAAD Air Defense Interceptors in Major Indo-Pacific Missile Defense Expansion."
https://t.co/Bybp7OeDVB

The proposed purchase of 857 interceptors, therefore, represents not only replenishment of existing stocks but also a substantial increase in the Army's capacity to sustain missile defense operations during prolonged crises or major conflicts.

[Samir Saran @samirsaran]

I write for the @IndianExpress today on the significant fault-lines that are defining the #IndiaUS ties and that must not be papered over.

Read here - https://t.co/XQxFT6Fkja

[Vivek Mishra @viveksans]

🔗 Subscribe to stay informed and explore critical developments in the world of geopolitics—published first week of every month

The Strategic Studies Newsletter
@ProfHarshVPant @orfonline

https://t.co/dMpDzqxeap

[Arzan Tarapore @arzandc]

Aus-India agree to important operational-level collaboration, to build the enabling foundations of military cooperation in the Indian Ocean.

https://t.co/FDCLQ7S0kO

[Kalpit A Mankikar | 唐书伟 @kalpitm]

This fortnight's Beijing Scan from @orfonline are 3 recent developments that offer insights into the trajectory of #China’ s economy, its ties with the U.S., and the enduring significance of #Taiwan in shaping regional stability. 
https://t.co/ZvFIsh7dwi

@ProfHarshVPant

[Atul Kumar, PhD @katul02]

#Newrelease
@orfonline publishes second issue of #BeijingScan, a fortnightly insight on China's economy, politics, foreign policy and military.

https://t.co/YzuuY8zpU0

[Nicholas Kristof @NickKristof]

In a sign of Xi Jinping's insecurities, China has expelled an outstanding New York Times correspondent, Vivian Wang, who for years has done tremendous work covering that country. The Times, which has covered China since the 1850s and once had about a dozen correspondents in China, now has just one -- because of visa restrictions. China is a major international power, but it displays a remarkable lack of self-confidence when it bars correspondents like this. It will still be covered but from places like Taiwan in ways that can't do it justice. China has some extraordinary accomplishments in science, in education, in health, in infrastructure; a baby born in Beijing today has a longer life expectancy than a baby born in Washington DC. Yet China fears international coverage in a way that I think reflects a political immaturity and hurts itself. 搬起石头砸自己的脚. https://t.co/3LJQfY1I30

[Paul Antonopoulos @oulosP]

Turkey is desperately trying to hide the fact that the KAAN cannot be built without US approval, making it even more difficult for Turkey to close the gap on Greece's aviation dominance, given the upgraded F-16s, Rafales, and upcoming F-35s.

In September 2025, Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was in New York, and in an interview, he let it slip that the F110 engine license — the American engine powering every KAAN prototype — “is stuck in Congress” and that “without Congressional approval, production of the KAAN cannot begin.”

The whole point of KAAN was for Turkey to have a sovereign fifth-generation fighter after being kicked out of the F-35 program following the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system.

However, as Fidan admitted, the KAAN cannot enter production without permission from the United States Congress, the same Congress that expelled Turkey from the F-35 program and has been blocking Turkey's F-16 upgrade requests for years.

In effect, Washington holds a legal veto over the aircraft Erdogan has been lying to his people about, claiming sovereignty. The US can ground the KAAN even before it ever enters service by withholding export licenses.

Let’s not forget that the KAAN airframe was co-designed with BAE Systems. Even if Turkey's domestic TF-35000 engine reaches flight readiness — a target projected optimistically for 2032 — the aircraft still contains veto points in the United Kingdom and the European Union, meaning that Turkey's so-called sovereign fighter jet is not sovereign.

Of course, I am expecting screeching from the usual Turkish trolls, but hey, Fidan revealed this himself in New York.

Turkey's defense ministry boasts that the 2026 military budget is the largest in national history, with record allocations and unprecedented domestic investment. Although that might appear impressive in Turkish lira, that is also where the problem lies.

The Turkish lira has lost approximately 97% of its value against the US dollar since 2010. In 2020, one dollar bought 1.5 liras, but today one dollar buys just under 46 liras.

Remember, every fighter jet engine, precision-guided munition, radar capability, and every other imported defense technology is priced in dollars. The lira budget is climbing, but real dollar purchasing power is declining.

But even beyond the KAAN, the Turkish Air Force has a MAJOR issue with pilots, another reason why Greece has total air dominance over Turkey. I will delve into that another time.

[Caixin Global @caixin]

In Depth: China looks set to succeed at bringing trillions of yuan in hidden local government liabilities onto official balance sheets by next year’s deadline. But tackling LGFVs’ operational debt is proving to be a thornier task. https://t.co/3VUX5heIF9