I have a new report out with @thatsamoray and @_wearepossible on the carbon footprint of elite status in Frequent Flyer Programs: https://t.co/ebofDHoeHq
10. How soon could this thing reach a tipping point? The latest IPCC Report (AR6, published in 2023) stated there was 'medium confidence' that AMOC would NOT collapse abruptly before the end of this Century. That doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence. A number of more recent studies have sounded the alarm that even the IPCC Report underestimates the risk of a potential AMOC collapse this Century. A paper published last year estimates collapse around the middle of this Century (or sometime between 2025 and 2095, with a 95% confidence interval). 2025 is... next year. Another study which is currently under peer review gives a more precise range of between 2037 and 2064 (with 10-90% confidence interval) and notes that the mean estimate is the year 2050. That's 26 years from now. That pre-print says AMOC is "on a tipping course" and that there is a 59% chance (plus or minus 17%) that the AMOC collapses before 2050. This suggest that a "tipping point" may actually have occurred decades ago. Studies note that a change point linked to salinity changes likely was reached back around 1970. In a recent Open Letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers, scientists noted that there's a possibility AMOC "collapse is triggered this century but only fully plays out in the next". Way too close for comfort!
There is no boiler ban. There are incentives to fit heat pumps and clear signals for manufacturers to ramp up supply and works to reduce the cost of electricity by de-gassing the grid, which will eventually make heat pumps the default.
But (I suppose) if you are trying to mass produce breads with the same production line at a competitive price, you end up making the same bread but in different shapes.
First year service of this 7kw Vaillant.
Heating COP: 6.0
DHW COP: 4.0
Total energy used: 2000 kWh
Total running cost for a large 3 bed house with kitchen extension for 12 months: £480