Started using this Killer Signals Bot automation, it‘s pretty dope tbh. All bots now in profit somehow. It trades stuff I never heard about before, but hell. https://t.co/0IyKc2Jdtd
Hey all,
As most of you know, we’ve been working on HELLO Studio.
@FinstarH and @IamBomb_Diggity testing it right now, have a look:
https://t.co/KPHrklHbkj
Why MSTR Jan 2028 $300 calls are probably the best risk-adjusted leverage on Bitcoin you can buy today:
The contract: $49.31 premium, 627 days to expiry, breakeven at MSTR $349.31, delta 0.54.
What you're actually buying isn't just bet on MSTR.
You're buying five compounding multipliers on a single underlying thesis.
Does Bitcoin revert back to it's long term trendline? If it does over the next two years, you make bank. If it doesn't, you need MSTR to raise the 1x mNAV floor fast enough with relentless Bitcoin buying.
Amplified Bitcoin doesn't work when Bitcoin doesn't go up, shocker I know. Not financial advice. Obviously you'd wanna be a Bitcoin bull to consider this.
Multiplier 1 - BTC: $80K to $273K is 3.4x
$273k Bitcoin is not a bull market by historical standards. It is reversion back to the trendline of the asset's price by 2028. That's why I'm buying LEAPS. Plenty of time for this to occur.
Multiplier 2 - CEBE drag compression: Strategy's $19.5B in USD-denominated senior claims shrinks from 244K BTC today to ~92K BTC at $273K. Drag goes from 30% to 12%. That's 18 points of pure CEBE accretion flowing to common.
Multiplier 3 - Accumulation: 250K BTC/year of continued accretive buying lifts BPS roughly 14% over the period, even net of dilution.
For people who think that I'm doing moonboy nonsense, Strategy bought over 53k Bitcoin last month. So this 250k BTC per year pace is LESS than HALF of what they're currently doing, with STRC in a huge growth phase.
Multiplier 4 - mNAV reflation: Currently 1.28x. Institutional adoption lane re-rates this to 1.5x base case, 2x bull. Each 0.1x of mNAV expansion is +7% on the equity at constant BTC.
Multiplier 5 - LEAPS gamma: The $300 strike sits at delta 0.54 with effective leverage of 2x on the underlying.
Stack them. MSTR target at power law base: $966. The $300 call pays $666 of intrinsic on $49.31 of premium. 13.5x.
Bitcoin's power law return: 3.4x.
MSTR LEAPS return: 13.5x.
That's 4x Bitcoin's return.
In the bull case ($400K BTC, 1.8x mNAV): MSTR $1,788:
30x payoff. 7.5x Bitcoin's bull return.
And remember, what if they actually just keep the 600k per year acquisition pace rather than the 250k I'm modeling here?
Not financial advice. Just math.
Big News! We are expanding our roster of shows with the launch of Killer Trades, a brand new trading show in partnership with @BloFin_Official and hosted by veteran crypto trader @TraderCobb
We’re building this from ZERO completely in public. No BS. Just real trades, raw analysis, and up-to-the-minute market action.
Jump into our Discord for FREE and see the trades being taken in real time.
A portion of the trading fees will go directly toward $HELLO buybacks & burns + rewards for HELLO Labs stakers.
Don’t just watch... be a part of it.
I gave you this 2.7% trade yesterday, but not everyone believes in a small account. But this is a textbook.
The sooner you understand that most is a planned trajectory made by market makers and TA actually works, the more profitable you become.
Update on the $BTC last leg down trade update, we're right at the pivotal moment. Up... or Down?
I say we are going down. Bears win for a few days. After that, BULLS ONLY!
Still a bout 48 hours to see how this pans out. Prive bump could be explained by the wick's desire to reach the downwards funnel path.
If it breaks, we could conclude this was the bear market for the next few weeks.
But history doesn't repeat, it rhymes.
So still bearish for now.
Pretty unpopular opinion, but I am bearish on Bitcoin right now.
-> BTC has always behaved like this in this market
-> It is a copy trade of the 2022 bear
-> It has one leg down left to make it a 100% copy
We could be targeting 55K next. 45K after.
Eth has historically had its weakest period right now, and the next 100 days.
Eyes peeled to the charts 👀.
This story is getting boring; can it please be a quantum AI that traveled back in time to lay the foundation for its blockchain-based currency exchange technology?
And for it to be in time to appear on Killer Whales Season 3>:)
i'm not satoshi, but I was early in laser focus on the positive societal implications of cryptography, online privacy and electronic cash, hence my ~1992 onwards active interest in applied research on ecash, privacy tech on cypherpunks list which led to hashcash and other ideas.