Lara Spirit

Deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

[Dominic Hauschild @domhauschild]

NEW: There will be no new Type 83 Destroyers or Type 32 Frigates in the upcoming defence investment plan 💥

I'm told the DIP will be published on Tuesday with £1bn - £1.5bn more than John Healey secured.

It will also include:

⚓️Some kind of new crewed vessel - but not a destroyer or frigate.
⚓️A new uncrewed systems taskforce focused on drone warfare, based out of Swindon.
⚓️The money for GCAP is definitely secured, bringing us a new stealth fighter jet
⚓️As is the money for the F35-A nuclear enabled plane
⚓️Hundreds of millions for a new Multilateral Defence Mechanism for military financing
⚓️ £500 million to equip UK Commando Force

BUT I'm hearing there will be cutbacks. Particularly:

🌊 Slowing down the rate of recruitment for the UK's cadet force.
🌊 Slowing down the rate that military homes are refurbished.

You can read the full article with @lara_spirit on the front page of The Sunday Times @thetimes today and below👇

[Dominic Hauschild @domhauschild]

NEW: Admiral Sir Tony Radakin has written an explosive op-ed for The Sunday Times.

It is the first time the former chief of the defence staff has spoken since retiring last year.

He said:

💥 Andy Burnham must appoint a "wartime cabinet" that will properly fund the military.
💥 The "peace dividend" is over - and the role of the PM is now a "quasi-wartime" one.
💥 The UK is "looking like a laggard" in Nato and we are bottom of the Nato league table to meet our military commitments.
💥 Warned Burnham to avoid antagonising Donald Trump - or else the USA could withdraw its "unconditional support" for the UK.
💥 Says the next PM must "protect the nuclear deterrent."

Full words in @thetimes below 👇

[Times Politics @timespolitics]

My advice to Andy Burnham as a former head of the armed forces https://t.co/93rSSirIpI

[Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford]

The latest episode of our podcast The State of It:

* Andy Burnham effectively trying to build a plane mid-flight - he has just three and a half weeks to put a government and a policy platform together. It is a tall order

* The preparations are having to be done at hyperspeed - just look at appointment of James Purnell, which leaked before it was even announced. He hadn't even had time to tell his employees at Flint Global

* Inside the race to become Andy Burnham's chancellor. His allies are divided. Some have deep concerns about Ed Miliband, others are championing him. Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood are also in the frame.

* Burnham's expected appointments suggest he is open to tall poppies. Lord O'Neill, who expected to be Burnham's chief economic adviser, told @SamCoatesSky that if Burnham doesn't demonstrate proper economic change in six months he will be on his knees

* Tax rises look inevitable, whoever the chancellor is, given the impact of Iran on the economy and the need to increase funding on defence. Expect taxes on wealth over taxes on income given Burnham's outright commitment to the fiscal rules

* Out on the terrace where MPs have been gathering, drinking, and waiting for Andy Burnham. There's elation but also some nervous expectation - people craning their necks in case Burnham comes for a pint. Burnham has been in the smoking room pressing the flesh and holding one-to-one meetings in his temporary office

* At a No 10 reception to thank his closest aides and staff Keir Starmer and his wife both gave speeches. Starmer said he would do everything he could to support the transition and help Andy Burnham into power

* But that's not how Burnham's allies see it. They are particularly angry about Starmer's insistence that he will announce the defence investment plan ahead of the Nato summit. It doesn't feel sustainable. A final u-turn in the offing?

With @patrickkmaguire and @lara_spirit

https://t.co/wMkRNtMIsp

[Lara Spirit @lara_spirit]

@JonPluck Thank you so much! That’s kind

[Lara Spirit @lara_spirit]

@clarescastle @TimesRadio Thank you v much!

[Christopher Hope📝 @christopherhope]

I often think about this statistic from @lara_spirit in The Sunday Times ...

[Times Politics @timespolitics]

After a resounding victory in Makerfield, the former Greater Manchester mayor’s team is focused on reshaping Labour in his image and unseating Sir Keir Starmer https://t.co/QCbkxkPEoy

[Lara Spirit @lara_spirit]

EXC: Reeves ruled out

[Times Politics @timespolitics]

Rachel Reeves will be sacked as chancellor by Andy Burnham if he takes power as the race for No 11 under a potential new government narrows https://t.co/n8mlKX07Jg

[Times Politics @timespolitics]

Rachel Reeves will be sacked as chancellor by Andy Burnham if he takes power as the race for No 11 under a potential new government narrows https://t.co/n8mlKX07Jg

[Ailbhe Rea @PronouncedAlva]

SCOOP: Andy Burnham has the nominations required to trigger a Labour leadership contest, according to three people close to the matter.

He intends to present the list to Keir Starmer to urge him to step down without a contest. Burnham has crossed the threshold of 81 MPs required but has no plans to trigger a leadership contest tomorrow or over the weekend.
https://t.co/FIRc2j6mYw

[Katy Balls @katyballs]

🚨 Exclusive: Reza Pahlavi - ‘Any deal with this Iranian regime will fail’

My @thetimes interview with the Shah’s son on the framework deal, Trump, his remaining hopes for the Iranian people and life as an exile

https://t.co/1XbeKQFZeH

[Dominic Hauschild @domhauschild]

🚁NEW 🚁 Britain's capacity for drone warfare is going to be reviewed in the defence investment plan as Dan Jarvis takes over at the MoD.

Jarvis is said to be mindful of criticism that the draft of long-awaited the DIP, that led to the resignation of John Healey, failed to take into account concerns about the importance of drone warfare.

Earlier today @AlistairCarns the former armed forces minister who also resigned on Thurs, told @TimesRadio the military was not "transforming fast enough" to adopt the lessons from Ukraine.

My weekend defence read with @lara_spirit in The Sunday Times @thetimes 👇

[Lara Spirit @lara_spirit]

EXCL with @ojngill: Keir Starmer to water down electric vehicles sales targets

Zero emission vehicle mandate to be reduced from 80 per cent of new car sales to 50 per cent by 2030

[Lara Spirit @lara_spirit]

Poll conducted by @convergentrsrch – newly established by Dylan Spielman and Fintan Smith, who led Labour’s polling and data op in the 2024 general election

Fieldwork 2-12 June / sample 525

[Lara Spirit @lara_spirit]

EXCLUSIVE: Andy Burnham has *12-point* lead in new Makerfield poll

Labour: 49
Reform: 37
Greens: 5
Restore: 5
Conservative: 3
Lib Dem: 1
Other: 1

[Lara Spirit @lara_spirit]

🚨EXC: Senior Burnham advisers are lobbying Shabana Mahmood to be his chancellor

– Efforts accelerated in recent days amid concern about Ed Miliband entering No11

– BUT Mahmood has told them them she still doesn't want it – she is determined to remain home secretary and see her immigration reforms through

[Luke Tryl @LukeTryl]

Latest Episode of the @opinionbriefpod out

- @lara_spirit and I on what voters are weighing up in the final week of the Makerfield campaign
- I look at how the public have reacted to the murder of Henry Nowak & views on police & protests
Listen here:
https://t.co/wk6tZu2pNl

[Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford]

This week's episode of our podcast The State of It with the brilliant @lara_spirit

* Inside the bitter Cabinet splits over the defence investment plan - why nobody is happy

* Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce a £13.5billion increase in defence spending - far less than previously considered

* John Healey, the defence secretary, has warned that this will not be enough and that it risks undermining our credibility in Nato. Defence chiefs had originally asked for £28billion

* The Treasury is also said to be pushing for a "planning assumption" that Britain will only meet its target of spending 3 per cent of GDP on defence up from current levels of 2.3 per cent in 2034/35. Healey is concerned that this is not soon enough, given the scale of the threat Britain faces, and has so far refused to sign it off

* Talks are going down to the wire. The launch of the Defence Investment Plan was planned for Friday but it could easily be delayed yet again

* The defence chiefs are deeply unhappy. They are concerned that the money on the table will not be enough to fund key projects. There's a feeling they have largely been kept in the dark

* Reeves is deeply frustrated by the process - the fact she is having to effectively reopen the spending review process to find the money. Her intervention at an investor conference yesterday - warning of need for tax rises to fund defence - was particularly significant

* Then there's the bigger political picture - what if Burnham wins Makerfield, becomes PM and takes a different view? By that stage you could have a new PM, a new chancellor and a new defence secretary. Worth remembering that there are significant cuts to DfT capital budgets and net zero projects to help fund the DIP

* Latest from Makerfield: Burnham allies are increasingly confident he will win the by-election. They think Restore UK is a factor that will divide the vote on the right. Restore is targeting female voters in particular

* The big question - if Burnham wins Makerfield when does he make his move? Allies suggesting he is likely to go sooner than later

* The prospect of an orderly transition appears unlikely - Starmer said to think Burnham's manoeuvres are 'unforgivable' - there is mutual enmity between the two men which goes back for years

* Will Starmer stand and fight? He insists he will. But we have seen this before with Boris Johnson and even Liz Truss insisting they would fight on and then going. But Starmer is a different character

* If there is a leadership contest where does that leave Labour? It means we will have weeks of internal arguments and a 'battle of ideas' in the run-up to a hugely challenging cost of living crisis this winter...

https://t.co/dHLQtFNqN3

[Ailbhe Rea @PronouncedAlva]

Louise Haigh and Anneliese Midgley were once sidelined by Keir Starmer and Morgan McSweeney.

Now they're running Andy Burnham's march on Downing Street.

This week's NS column is on the duo you need to know about as Labour prepares for regime change

https://t.co/AvTMsadhKD