LegendBets NewsLetter

+EV Sports and Horse Racing wagering information.
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[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

Got one of the best 3yos the sport has seen in some time and broadcast on Fox talking bout horses like Mo Plex and Sandman. Kind of crazy, IMO.

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

Update: Still have lost more money betting against Zulu Kingdom than any other horse last 12 months @Pullthepocket

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

@EJXD2 @1FastColt @PreaknessStakes Sharp folks bet last, bc why would you bet before that.

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

We blame CAWs but sharps tossed Taj mostly that I saw. @derby1592 @CraigMilkowski picked NS on SOK pod, and @HorseToWatch and @DRF_Beer both made cases for winner, and @andyserling picked, maybe it wasn't CAWs as these are the most popular public shows?

https://t.co/6MqskIEiA8

[The CAW Report @the_CAW_report]

If you didn’t have Napoleon Solo, you lost.

If you did, you still lost.

If you thought you were getting $1,000 on your $100 win bet, you should have been pissed to pick the right horse and lose $300.

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

Horse racing is hilarious. For years said takeout doesn't matter. Los Al QH tonight runs a SIMPLE new promo. 10K seeded pool for non c/o Sunday Pick 6 and got record pool. Then the late Pick 4 went north of 150K. #IAmHorseRacing

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

Wemby vs Antman seems like must watch TV, but the +EV move of the night might just be The Mystery of Richard Simmons #CircleBack

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

@Pullthepocket Nobody who can do price discovery ever complains, they just bet. The problem is there's less and less dumb retail money, not too much sharp money.

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

Needed the Prison Rules version of #BetProtect #NoLube @CirclesOffHQ don't let China see this #nobadbeatsjustbadbets @robpizzola

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

What a crock, give the folks Eject-Protect, and guarantee you won't profit off it #circleback @CirclesOffHQ @robpizzola 🫡

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

Gotta be careful with those AI next word guessing captions @TravisStone

https://t.co/HfiyIUucAg

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

@DJPRUETT70 App looks like my daughter coded it, but no app is saving horse racing anyway and that ain't his fault. And tracks rather cater to volume, so maybe there's a way to bridge the gap for retail vs CAW but most don't have time, patience, or knowledge to try

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

The bettors have been saying what @KennyMcPeek recently said about the horse racing industry as a whole for a long time, but we're just idiot moron bettors. I call it the totem pole effect, worried more about top vs bottom than the necessity to stand together.

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

What's the precedent for a fighter saying he let his injured opponent win bc he felt mercy? I'd start with banned from sanctioned betting events @CirclesOffHQ #CircleBack

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

@gporter812 @Jackpotkimm @keenelandracing Guy in charge says the solution is to stop reading the internet. Nothing to see here

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

"Price Distortion" they are calling it.....which they are currently defining as any sudden, massive move caused by a group rather than "organic" flow.

Price Distortion = Price Discovery, and without it, markets don't exist

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

KYC IYKYK

[Dave Mason @DaveMasonBOL]

To give you an idea how much action comes in on these all-chalk ML Parlays...

There is more cash on Houston ML parlays than straights on A&M spread + Houston spread + A&M ML + Houston ML + Over + Under COMBINED.

There is 20.4 times more cash on Illinois ML parlays than straights on Illinois ML and VCU ML COMBINED

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

One of the best finishes ever to not decide a winner

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

My oh my

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

UNC-Ya

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

Gmac > Scheyer

Cuse looks sharp as ever these days
@dmak03

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

@RufusPeabody All 4 #1 Seeds to Reach Final 4

My model has 8.7%. I'm using path probability, projecting spreads using my ratings. +1050 is my Fair Price, you can get better than that on Kalshi currently

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

For anyone who wants to ruin the fun of #MarchMadness with math, see below.

My model projects 7.82 higher seeds winning in round of 64. The Kalshi market sits at pick em for 7, and -239 for 6+ is value.

[LegendBets NewsLetter @LegendBetsNL]

All 4 1 seeds, this is interesting, I've heard projections anywhere from 2% to 20% (Sorry @RufusPeabody I know it was an on the fly live pod math guess)

Historically the number is 4.8%

All 4 1 seeds to make Sweet 16 I make -230

All 4 1 seeds to make Elite 8 I make +195