Nguyen Phuong Linh

Southeast Asia analyst. Former FT and Reuters hack via Hanoi and London. AI calls me “linguine”. Views are my mums’.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

My trolls and haters are back! Let me borrow James Baldwin’s words to tell you: I love my country - Vietnam - more than any other country in the world and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticise her perpetually.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

A little Thanksgiving treat: my piece on Vietnam’s race between speed and stamina 🦃🇻🇳
Happy reading between turkey bites!
https://t.co/MHZrR9cMYB

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

This year’s flood response exposed a painful truth in #Vietnam: the country’s rushed local-government restructuring left the new apparatus disoriented. When tragedy hit, no one knew who should act - or how.
The result was deadly chaos, not rescue.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

Just arrived in Hanoi - tried to digest the 50 laws Parliament plans to push through next week but couldn’t. That’s an insane rush. The pace, the urgency, the quiet maneuvering - everyone’s racing the clock. The Party Congress won’t wait till 2026. December looks more likely.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

5) Why it matters: Vn’s reform agenda is inseparable from its political cycle. With transition looming, institutional reform is both policy and power play. For investors, the execution risk is political, not technical - reforms advance only if they survive factional bargaining.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

Key takeaways (that I can share) from my meeting with President Luong Cuong this morning in New York:
1) The 🇻🇳–🇺🇸 tariffs agreement is still unsigned - it’s not a done deal yet.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

4) He was personable yet sharp- spoke for an hour w/o notes. The boldness felt aimed inward as much as outward: a reminder to the system of his authority, even with succession on the horizon. In Vietnam’s factional politics, strength is also about shaping the terms of transition.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

@Trinhnomics You’re absolutely right on many points. But the 400% solar tariff is a different story. And it was arranged long time ago back to Biden administration, not Trump. It’s just officially announced in April.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

@Trinhnomics It’s understandable to see it that way without reading the full document. It’s more complex than just numbers.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

@Trinhnomics That’s why I’m betting on Vietnamese diplomats. They’ll get a deal - just not this one.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

Ok, I finally got my hands on the draft US-Vietnam tariff agreement. Whoever wrote it must think Vietnam is a vending machine: insert pressure, get a deal. No way this gets signed.
This is a real test of Vietnam’s “bamboo diplomacy”. Got my money on the Vietnamese diplomats!

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

6) Conclusion: TL is quietly reengineering the system - not by revolution but by centralising control.
This isn’t the start of a new era but a return to a familiar cycle in Vnese politics: post-consensus, post-performance, back to the NTD era of pragmatic power and Party-led.

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

After Vietnam’s recent plenum, most focused on ex-leader punishments (which I see differently than most). But few noticed To Lam’s 1st major speech as Party chief. It wasn’t flashy- but quietly signaled a sharp shift: away from ideology; toward control, legal reform, & results.🧵

[Nguyen Phuong Linh @linhpnguyen]

5) The emerging model:
- Party = strategic brain
- Government = executive engine
- Ideology = symbolic layer
It’s a Vietnam-specific version of the “Singapore model”: strong control, efficient administration (hopefully), and performance legitimacy.