macrostuff

observing and trying to understand macro that matters

[TraderLion @TraderLion]

Stanley Druckenmiller hasn't had a losing year in his entire 4.5 decades as a trader.

He recently sat down for a talk that every retail investor/trader needs to listen to.

We've broken it down for you into 10 clips (covering TA, risk management, selling losers, & much more):

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

Yield curve inversion has already set the stage for a recession

This had also happened in 1928, 1972, and 2000

All of them ended in a recession

Buckle up 🧵

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

This level in the Nasdaq is a good one worth monitoring. Failed again last week $QQQ

[macrostuff @macrostuff]

@Schuldensuehner I think there is a overly negative sentiment regarding German economy, partially due to the new geopolitics(and no more cheap gas), partially due to demographics trends. And that is reflected in markets

[macrostuff @macrostuff]

@allstarcharts They will become overpriced again. Could happen, with all the AI promises.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Forget about inflation, the labor market, or maybe even politics:

The chart below is likely the primary reason prompting the Fed to consider cutting interest rates.

Assuming current rates remain steady, the cost of servicing the Federal debt alone will approach 6% of GDP by year-end.

On the other hand:

If the Fed reduces rates by 150 basis points, the interest payment would decrease by 33%.

Severe debt imbalances will inevitably lead central banks to resort to financial repression, compelling policymakers to let inflation rates remain higher for longer.

I cannot stress enough how favorable this environment is likely to be for hard assets.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Good Morning from Germany where the number of company bankruptcies hit another record high in March. Acc to the IWH econ institute, the number of insolvencies of partnerships and corporations in Germany rose by 9% MoM to 1,297 in March. Current number is also 35% higher than in March 2023 and 30% above March avg for the years 2016-2019, i.e. before the pandemic.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

Traders are now pricing in an 18% chance of a June Fed rate cut and fewer than two cuts this year, from a 53% chance of a June move yesterday.

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

IF inflation follows this blueprint, it’s game over for the Fed

[macrostuff @macrostuff]

https://t.co/fVFXZxdykx

The combined effects of less T-bills, BTFP maturities and QT will hit US Bank Reserves hard with a frontloaded 600bn reduction next quarter. The effect will be felt across most markets we believe.

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

This is BIG

Silver just broke out of an inverse head and shoulders pattern

Our $35 target is inching closer by the day

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Nasdaq 100 vs. commodities

A historical perspective of how expensive Nasdaq stocks are relative to how cheap commodity prices remain.

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

Are you going to tell me this is a downtrend? Commodities are king this cycle. Not stocks. And certainly not bonds https://t.co/HHCROxqbZC

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

*POWELL: RECENT DATA DO NOT MATERIALLY CHANGE OVERALL PICTURE

*NOT acknowledging the $14 move in oil (since February) - That's a high-heat incoming threat to CPI, gasoline is +40% off the Dec lows.

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

ALERT: Market concentration of the top 10% largest stocks is now at the highest level since the 1930s

[Lawrence McDonald @Convertbond]

Tectonic Plates are shifting under the surface - a jobs number like this (300+) would have taken $20-$40 off gold any month over the last year.

*(Gold +$10 today with 5-year inflation expectations at fresh 14-month highs).

https://t.co/0ikPLQPTrL

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

The odds of a June Fed rate cut are now almost a coin toss (59%) following hot jobs report w/ok inflation.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

The Fed has shrunk its balance sheet by about $1.5 trillion since starting quantitative tightening. A big question for some strategists is at what point it'll start mattering more significantly to markets.

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

Strong employment report across the board, with the Coincident Employment Index increasing in March and a rising diffusion.

1/2

[J.C. Parets @JC_ParetsX]

Big base 👀