Matthieu Favas

Commodities Editor at @TheEconomist

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

You cannot substitute flows with stocks. The world is about to find out what happens when you try.

My cover briefing this week: https://t.co/qukCRky7BP

With excellent contributions from Christian Odendhal, Ehan Wu, Simon Wright and Vishnu Padmanabhan (6/6)

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

The world has weeks of fuel buffers left. Markets haven't noticed yet. In the last day or so Brent crude first rose by 14%, to $126 a barrel, before crashing by $12, to $114 a barrel. To me, this does not scream panic (1/6)

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

Even America isn't immune. The East Coast depends on Gulf refineries and European imports. The West Coast relied partly on Asia and the Middle East. Summer driving season starts in weeks. One way or another, in many regions, fuel will be rationed—whether by price or by fiat (5/6)

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

4.8bn people. Less than 50 days of crude stocks in India, SK and Singapore. Weeks of LNG in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Same for jet fuel in Oz/Nz. The Iran war is causing an Asian energy emergency https://t.co/9qZ0NJUnSv

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

A third of the world's seaborne oil passes through a strait 33 miles wide. War in Iran is fast making it unnavigable. Markets reopen tonight https://t.co/rpzpmWzr5x

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

America's bet on critical minerals assumes Western subsidies can outlast Chinese patience. China has been executing this playbook for 40 years. Washington has been at it for months. Will it work? Our cover story this week https://t.co/FiqxY8ieHp

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

Russia is dangling a $12 trillion prize in front of America. I ran the numbers. Putin’s offer is a trap https://t.co/lTM4tjkyWG

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

Last week the EU pledged to stop buying Russian gas by 2027. But there is one commodity from the bellicose giant next door it remains hooked on: plant food https://t.co/CtQR96gqBx

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

The Trump administration has just blacklisted Russia’s two largest oil firms. Global prices have lept; some big Indian and Chinese refiners say they will stop importing. Are these new sanctions really the all-out strike they appear? My quick take https://t.co/ugexnbQGUW

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

Here's why https://t.co/IYnkHlaBAI

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

Three years ago, a food calamity loomed. Russia’s war in Ukraine pitted two big grain exporters against each other; prices surged. As the war rages on, Ukraine's wheat exports are set to shrink by 25-30% this season. And yet prices are nearing five-year lows.

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

Commodity markets look simple. When the supply of a material shrinks, prices go up. When supply expands, they go down. The problem is that supply shocks never quite live up to the initial excitement. For a recent example, take a look at lithium https://t.co/CvtHfX2Dwo

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

Thrilled to say that I have been named Journalist of the Year by the @Wincottfound, for my coverage of Iran's sanction-busting, Russia's new economic friends and China's secret commodity stockpiles. Huge thanks to my colleagues and editors https://t.co/DeuewDyTWl

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

In the trade war between the US and China, most of the focus has been on the tariff tit for tat. But China has another weapon to hurt America: restrictions on rare-earth exports. That is a weapon it is starting to deploy. How much damage could it cause? https://t.co/Wdz1seZLKL

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

Markets are sliding. Oil and gas are tanking. Other commodities are down. So this week I wrote about a niche material that's holding up better than most. Tin is the one critical metal no one's talking about https://t.co/tE0xxuj20R

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

What if America lifts sanctions on Russia but Europe does not? Access to US tech, currency and payment networks, some say, is what Russia really wants. But the old continent has its own weapons. Ignored and threatened, it may be tempted to use them https://t.co/jhzEtEu5Tg

[Matthieu Favas @MatthieuFavas]

Faced with Trump's bullying, Europe wants to avoid escalation. Its retaliatory tariffs are measured. The bloc still hopes that the worst instincts of the American president and his coterie can be moderated. But what if they can't? https://t.co/4Rf7sHlzEv