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Nasdaq: ATH
Russell 2000: ATH
ISM PMI: Above 52
The most bullish signals for risk-on assets are aligning together.
This is the perfect time for alts to rally.
MASSIVE:
The Coinbase premium has been green for 17 straight days.
That’s the highest US inflow in 6 months.
What it signals:
- Strong US buying pressure
- Institutional capital returning
- US dollar liquidity and bullish sentiment returning
🐳 A whale is shorting oil right as Iran’s Foreign Minister is in Pakistan to discuss plans to end the war.
Position size: $19,386,000
Liquidation price: $108.44
WTF IS HAPPENING IN THE WORLD?
Everyone is focused on the US-Iran war and the stock market ATH.
But something really unusual is happening where most people aren't paying attention.
I already talked about attacks on energy facilities a few days ago.
After that, there was a sudden fire at a chemical factory in India this week.
But that's not the only thing.
Over the past few weeks, there have been reports emerging of suspicious deaths of several scientists related to nuclear or space research.
The situation is so critical that even President Trump has publicly acknowledged this.
And this is not the US thing only.
In China, several scientists and AI specialists have been dying of mysterious deaths.
And the timing of all is even more suspicious.
Ever since Trump has announced the publication of UFO-linked files, these events have accelerated.
Is someone deliberately trying to hide some truth, or is this all just a coincidence?
BREAKING:
🇺🇸 President Trump said he isn’t sending U.S. envoys to Pakistan for peace talks with Iran and that negotiations could happen over the phone instead, per WSJ.
War is ending and peace deal is coming.
Bitcoin and ETH just posted their highest weekly close in the last 85 days.
But both are at a very dangerous resistance level. Bitcoin needs to break above $80k and ETH needs to break above $2400.
If they get rejected from here, we could see new lows.
A peace deal announcement can help us break this level and send Bitcoin to $85k-$90k zone.
MASSIVE:
🇺🇸 BlackRock has bought $732 Million in Bitcoin last week.
That's nearly all of the $823.7 million in total spot ETF inflows.
They now hold over $62.7 Billion worth of Bitcoin.
🚨BIG WEEK FOR CRYPTO HOLDERS
A lot of major events are hitting the markets at once, and this could cause a lot of volatility.
1) US-Iran negotiations
Today, Iran sent a new proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the war.
President Trump is set to hold a meeting today to discuss negotiations.
Any signs of resuming US-Iran talks will be a good sign for the markets.
2) BOJ decision
On Tuesday, the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision.
The market expects a rate pause, so the forward guidance is the most important.
After the Hormuz blockade, inflation has started to move up in Japan.
Any signs of BOJ tightening in the future will cause sellers to front-run.
And if BOJ thinks inflation will be short-lived, markets could pump.
3) Fed decision
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, which will most likely be a pause.
The important thing here will be Powell's press conference, as inflation has spiked a lot since the last Fed meeting.
Also, it'll most likely be the last FOMC meeting for Powell as a Fed chair.
4) Earnings report
Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Apple will report their earnings this week.
These 5 companies account for over 25% of the entire S&P 500, which is a huge deal.
If they report strong earnings, it'll be a sign that consumers are still spending and the economy is in good condition.
If they report bad earnings, it'll be bad for the stock and crypto market.
5) ISM PMI
US ISM PMI for April will be released on Friday.
The last 3 ISM PMI prints were above 52, which is a sign of economic expansion.
If another such print happens, it'll show that the US economy isn't slowing down despite the war.
Historically, if ISM PMI has stayed above 52 for long, it has resulted in a parabolic crypto move.
Conclusion
This week is packed with major data, which means volatility could be extreme.
Don't use leverage, and keep my notifications on to get the update in real-time.
Bitcoin has now closed 4 consecutive weeks in green for the first time since April 2025.
- Weekly MACD has flipped bullish.
- Price has reclaimed April 2025 lows.
- RSI has reclaimed the long-term support line.
The next key level for Bitcoin is $80K, and a clean breakout above it will confirm a reversal.
A rejection from $80K will push BTC towards the $74K support zone.
There are several key events too this week, which will decide the next BTC move.
- US and Iran indirect talks
- BOJ decision on Tuesday
- FOMC and earnings report on Wednesday
- ISM PMI data on Friday.
Looking at the macro, several things are aligned together, which has historically been bullish for crypto.
- The Russell 2000 is hitting new highs.
- ISM has printed 3 consecutive months above 52.
- New Fed Chair could be confirmed in a few weeks.
- US M2 supply is at new highs
- The Fed is injecting liquidity into the markets.
All it needs now is a BTC breakout above $80K with rising Coinbase Premium, and we could see a broader crypto market rally.