Mikael Sarwe

Head of Research Sweden, SB1 Markets. If you can't show it in a chart then it's not true. Views are my own.

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

Thinking about it... Maybe Sweden needs -0.5% repo rate to balance the 77% effective marginal tax rate (income, payroll, consumption taxes)?

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇸🇪 Generally strong NIER survey. It seems the economy finally is heading for more of boom conditions into 2027.

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 I haven't really believed in the slowdown prediction from my old consumption model but today's retail sales numbers at least indicate that I perhaps need to think twice about that conclusion. We'll see...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 Not sure what is going on here but employment according to the household survey is opening up a large gap vs NFP. If households believe that employment is falling it could affect consumption eventually. Likely not yet though acc. to Johnson Redbook strong weekly retail data

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸The market conclusion will be that employment still is consistent with a growing economy. However, the household employment survey seems to disagree and once again showed a drop m/m. Over six months the household survey is -1 mn jobs. Who is right - the BLS or the households?

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇪🇺 It seems ECB is gearing up for a policy mistake. It's quite disturbing to see that the ECB seems to fully ignore a quite severe turn for the worse in both businesses and consumers view of the future. Why on earth would you want to stress into a rate hike scenario?

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇪🇺 Brutal drop in consumer confidence the past couple of months. And the market discounts ECB hikes. Would be a massive policy mistake...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

Ahead of the Fed tomorrow. The economy is if anything pointing to a removal of all rate cuts from the "dot plot". But then there is the political pressure ending all such thoughts...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 Unemployment at 4.6% and should continue to climb according to my model. Non-farm payroll growth negative if it weren't for BLS assumptions about jobs created by startups, although government is behind most of the drop.

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

@DannyDayan5 Semi-private? All the increase over the past two months is from Education & Health services

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

@EkonomiGabriel En fastighet är en tillgång med tämligen lång duration...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 Yet another weak Cass shipments index in October. Historically not a good sign.

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 On the USD 2,000 tariff dividend discussion... I seem to recollect that President Trump in February endorsed the idea of a DOGE dividend check of USD 5,000 and as far as I know, it never happened. Political rhetoric is funny...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

@AnilVohra1962 Real GDP

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey has generally been a poor leading indicator since COVID-19. But the labour market part has been more correct until now. Hmmm...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 Perhaps quite good for President Trump that no unemployment data is released...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇪🇺 Why so stubborn, ECB?

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

@stckpkr @GregerEver Alla siffror är från SCB...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 While GDP continues to be strong (but with all growth in H1 coming from IT & software investments), leading labour market indicators keep deteriorating. Challenger hiring is today's example...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇪🇺 Not really sure why the euro area inflation print for September is described as high. According to ECB's data, the seasonally adjusted m/m rate was lower than the inflation target on an annualized basis...

[Mikael Sarwe @MikaelSarwe]

🇺🇸 Unchanged JOLTS job openings, weak JOLTS hires and consumers point to rising unemployment.