Michael Carpenter

Former Ambassador to OSCE, NSC Senior Director for Europe, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia. Retweets ≠ endorsements.

[Peter Baker @peterbakernyt]

The average life expectancy of a new Russian recruit—from arrival at a training ground to death in a combat zone—lies somewhere between 10 days and three weeks. Once sent onto the battlefield, they survive an average of 20 to 35 minutes. @peterfrankopan https://t.co/W3UhBerdH0

[Euromaidan Press @EuromaidanPress]

The US wiped seven Russians, two ships, and two Turkish firms off its sanctions blacklist—with no reason given.

The Treasury made the deletions on 24 June.

🔗 https://t.co/pOKu6cJxAY

[Michael Carpenter @mikercarpenter]

Watch Crimea this summer 👀 Ukraine is systematically isolating it.

[Army Media 🇺🇦 @armyinformcomua]

Ukraine just stripped the Kerch Bridge of its air defence.

In a joint operation on June 21, Ukraine’s Security Service and Special Operations Forces struck two Pantsir air defence systems deployed directly on the Crimean Bridge — and simultaneously disabled four S-400 radar stations.

Six air defence assets. One operation. The bridge that Russia built as a symbol of its grip on Crimea is now unprotected.

Every air defence system destroyed around the Kerch Bridge expands the operational window for what comes next. Every radar station disabled removes another layer of early warning for Russian forces defending the peninsula.

The broader picture of Crimea’s air defence in June 2026:
→ Pantsir systems struck in Zaporizhzhia region — June 19
→ Two Pantsirs on the Kerch Bridge — destroyed today
→ Four S-400 radars — disabled today → All major land crossings closed or under fire control
→ Fuel rationing across the peninsula → Oil and gas infrastructure burning
Russia built the Kerch Bridge to make
Crimea feel permanent.

Ukraine is systematically dismantling everything that makes it defensible.

Source: Security Service of Ukraine, June 21, 2026.

#Ukraine #UAF #CrimeaIsUkraine #DroneWarfare #RussiaUkraineWar

[Commissioner for Human Rights @CommissionerHR]

#Georgia: the authorities should ensure the accountability of law enforcement and reverse the mounting restrictions on freedom of assembly, association, and expression.
Read my full memorandum ⬇️
https://t.co/vR76qMBihV

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

What a rotten deal we made with Iran. We get nothing (except laughter at our stupidity). They get everything, including delay and big cash!

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

The deal with Iran will go down as one of the most incompetent ever made. The U.S. lost on virtually every point. We just don't win anymore!

[Michael Carpenter @mikercarpenter]

$300 billion to a regime that is every bit as tyrannical as it was on February 27.

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

CBS: The Iranians are saying they're gonna have access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund. True or false?

JD VANCE: That's the sort of things they could have access to so long as they honor their end of the obligation

[Carlos Abadi @NewSamawal]

The US secretly approved a financial and maritime arrangement between Qatar and Iran, under which billions of dollars were paid to Tehran in exchange for free passage for Qatari tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuz, three diplomatic officials now confirm.

This was a deliberate and conscious course of action by the US administration, which allowed its navy to turn a blind eye to the arrangement, in complete contradiction of its declared policy. The move was intended to ease the crisis in global energy markets and curb rising oil prices.
https://t.co/xDCmqWLT3B

[Michael Carpenter @mikercarpenter]

Mmhmm. So what’s the inspections regime look like?

[Acyn @Acyn]

Hegseth: The document says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, won't seek one, won't buy one, won't have one.

Brennan: JCPOA said that too.

Hegseth: The huge difference is we did this from a position of strength.

[Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv]

Absolute chaos in Crimea as fuel has totally run out.

Drivers line up for days with no hope of enough to leave the penninsula.

[Mykhailo Fedorov @FedorovMykhailo]

For the first time since 2022, Ukraine is steadily seizing the battlefield initiative. The cost of advancement for Russia continues to skyrocket—in May, Ukraine reclaimed more territory than Russia managed to capture.

This is a historic moment for our nation to force Russia into peace and end this war from a position of absolute strength.

But achieving this requires more than weapons and technology alone. That is why we are building a completely new military service system rooted in human respect, justice, and transparent, clear-cut rules.

[Magyar Péter (Ne féljetek) @magyarpeterMP]

The historic agreement between Hungary and Ukraine on the educational, cultural, linguistic, and political rights of the Hungarian community in Transcarpathia has now been formalised.

In an formal diplomatic note, the Ukrainian side has committed itself to implementing all provisions of the agreement and has also incorporated them into the EU Minority Action Plan.

In just a few weeks, we have succeeded in resolving an issue that the Orbán government was unable to address in ten years.

[UTA McDowell Center for Global Studies @McDowellCenter]

On this week’s episode of the Power Vertical Podcast, Brian Whitmore speaks with Andriy Zagorodniuk (@Andriypzag) and Michael Carpenter (@mikercarpenter) about how Ukraine’s battlefield innovations are transforming modern warfare.
https://t.co/cHbIeOsX8C

[Vatnik Soup @P_Kallioniemi]

Edward Snowden has officially started producing propaganda for the Kremlin.

[Jakub Janda 楊雅嚳 @_JakubJanda]

Chairman of Alternative for Germany (AfD) Saxony Jörg Urban was just caught at the Russian Embassy in Prague by Czech journalists from @enkocz.

Russian Embassy in Prague often serves as a regional headquarters of Russian intelligence to run their assets in Germany.

Full story:
https://t.co/x0dMzNrui4

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

This is actually a very good development. The ICAs on Havana Syndrome were deeply flawed and tendentious. And there is a welter of evidence pointing to Russia as being behind these attacks.

[Marko Mihkelson 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 @markomihkelson]

A potential erosion of the U.S. intelligence community could be a matter of serious concern for allies whose early-warning capabilities depend, at least in part, on the professional and comprehensive intelligence it provides. https://t.co/KfsQRGPUGR via @NYTOpinion

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

Ukraine's Fire Point company is racing to build a cheaper alternative to Patriot missiles for air defense against Russia's ballistic missiles. First tests have been "pretty sucessful." European and Ukrainian officials say it has had discussions with Germany’s Hensoldt and Thales for radar, Italy’s Leonardo for tracking and target acquisition radar, and Norway’s Kongsberg for command and control technology.
w/ @charles_clover @fabrice_deprez @FT
https://t.co/WMGsKQp4Gu

[Marc Polymeropoulos @Mpolymer]

True. And not new. Most of my friends in ntl security space who really know Ukraine said this six plus months ago. @general_ben @PhillipsPOBrien @michaeldweiss

[Michael Carpenter @mikercarpenter]

The EU needs an unconventional war strategy that goes beyond resilience and imposes real costs on aggressors. It must also respond collectively to hybrid attacks in the aggregate, not treating each one in isolation as a one-off incident.

[Ursula von der Leyen @vonderleyen]

Solidaritate cu România!

One week after a drone crashed into an apartment building in Galați, a maritime drone today reached the port of Constanța.

This is a direct consequence of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

It is increasingly becoming a direct threat to countries on our Eastern border.

Our solidarity with every Member State exposed to these threats is absolute.

And our response must match the urgency.

Europe is investing massively in anti-drone capabilities, air defence and early warning systems.

SAFE will help build a stronger Romania.

And a stronger Europe.