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[MileSplit US @milesplit]

What do YOU believe is the leading cause of Trackflation?

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

@SprintersCompen @spurs Always open to hear your takes, coach!

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

Everyone has a theory about trackflation.

Super shoes. Better training. Running is mainstream now.

But what's actually driving it?

We asked running expert and @spurs fan Paul Snyder to sort through the evidence and hopefully put this debate to rest. 👇

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

https://t.co/FYHtNJctDd

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

33.3333333% of the way there after last night! 🤠

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

Could we see 9 boys break 4 minutes in the mile this year?

It sounds crazy.

But when we compared today's top high school milers to where previous generations stacked up against NCAA competition, the possibility isn't as far-fetched as it sounds. 🧵

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

The current record for sub-4 boys in a single high school race is four.

The current season record is seven.

If this model is anywhere close to reality, both marks could be under serious pressure over the next few weeks starting with today's Festival of Miles!

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

Could we see 9 boys break 4 minutes in the mile this year?

It sounds crazy.

But when we compared today's top high school milers to where previous generations stacked up against NCAA competition, the possibility isn't as far-fetched as it sounds. 🧵

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

Applying those historical rankings to this year's NCAA depth produces some eye-opening projections:

#1 3:55.85
#2 3:58.06
#3 3:58.35
#4 3:58.69
#5 3:59.01
#6 3:59.58
#7 3:59.67
#8 3:59.67
#9 3:59.78
That's nine projected sub-4 performances.

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

So what was the most impressive boys high school mile using our methodology? None other than Drew Hunter's 3:57.81 in 2016 which would've ranked 8th in the entire NCAA that season.

No other American prep mile from the last 15 years would've cracked the collegiate top 10! 🤯

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

What's the most impressive high school boys mile of the last 15 years?

We tried to answer that question using NCAA data. 🧵

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

Take Colin Sahlman's 3:56.24 from 2022.

That performance moved him to No. 3 on the all-time high school mile list.

Yet it would've ranked just 19th in the NCAA that season.

That's how much the mile in the NCAA has changed.

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

@Coach_Lil_Erv I know you've got takes 😁

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

The community has spoken. Access to better training is the leading cause of trackflation.

Agree 🤝 or disagree 🙅‍♀️?

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

What do YOU believe is the leading cause of Trackflation?

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

This is why we do it! 🤠

[Mater Dei XC and Track & Field @MDHS_XCTrack]

Time to go to work!

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

@gemckamey Yes.

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

A request we received after the posting the 1600 graphic: isolate the sprint data.

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

@MarkT1970 Yes! Participation increased by about 5.5% (~60,000ish athletes) in this 7 year period.

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

@Rave_Speed High school track athletes.

[MileSplit US @milesplit]

Our previous tweet has led us down a rabbithole.

We compared every single event and the number of high school athletes hitting the same elite benchmarks in 2019 vs. 2026.

The weird part? It almost completely disappears in the field events. 🧵