Mindshare

Making sense of the world. Consumer Intelligence for fast moving brands.

[Mindshare @mindshare_]

Largely missed under the Prime Day noise: China's retail sales fell 0.6% YoY in May — the first annual contraction since December 2022 (NBS).

Big-ticket led the drop, autos −16.1%. The goods consumer is pulling back even as services hold up. Source: @merciv_ai

[Mindshare @mindshare_]

So what: the World Cup is a beer-and-snack demand event as much as a sports event. The split that matters is on-premise (bars, where brands fight for the pour) vs at-home (grocery "match-day baskets," where ~26% of viewers plan to prep snacks themselves). Win the occasion, not just the shelf.

[Mindshare @mindshare_]

This World Cup could pour an extra 1 BILLION pints.

That’s the global beer-volume forecast for the June–July tournament, the biggest single-event jolt to beer demand, with AB InBev mounting its most aggressive World Cup campaign ever.

Soccer is the ultimate beer occasion.

[Mindshare @mindshare_]

The cleverest activation reads the US calendar: many matches air during US working hours, so Stella Artois is literally helping fans "expense" their bar tabs to get them watching on-premise, a direct answer to the weekday-kickoff problem.

[Mindshare @mindshare_]

So what: stop forecasting demand off sentiment surveys this cycle. The say-do gap is wide. If you cut media or inventory on "vibes," you're cutting into a +6.9% YoY spend environment . Watch behavior, not mood. Full report below: https://t.co/ZFR5778dAn

[Mindshare @mindshare_]

Americans say the economy is near-crisis bad. Then they went shopping.

US retail sales rose +0.9% in May, ~2x the forecast — to a record $763.7B, +6.9% YoY (Census, released June 17).

Sentiment? Still ~19% below last year. The vibes and the receipts disagree.

[Mindshare @mindshare_]

Why it matters for us: sentiment is a lagging, emotional read that's mispricing actual demand right now. The "cautious, traded-down consumer" everyone's modeling isn't showing up at the register — spend is at a record

[Mindshare @mindshare_]

@coldemailchris Yes