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(Must be following)
🚨The level of interest payments on US public debt is absolutely MIND-BLOWING:
US federal interest costs hit $1.1 TRILLION in Q1 2025, just shy of a record set in Q4 2024.
As a % of tax receipts, this is ~35%, only below the 1980s-1990s, and above the World War II levels.
🚨Container bookings from China to the US are COLLAPSING:
Bookings for standard 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US fell 45% Y/Y in mid-April, according to Vizion.
Next will be a trucking demand DROP leading to empty shelves, lower sales, layoffs and a RECESSION.
It's officially "reciprocal tariff" week:
President Trump has called Wednesday "Liberation Day" with 20%+ tariffs coming on up to 25+ countries.
US tariffs will impact $1.5+ TRILLION worth of imports by the end of April.
Here's what you need to know.
(a thread)
‼️This is absolutely MIND-BLOWING:
US consumers' expectations about their financial situation over the next 12 months dropped to the LOWEST level on RECORD.
Not even during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 were Americans so pessimistic about their financial outlook..
🚨HOLY COW:
Nasdaq market capitalization relative to US GDP hit a RECORD 103%.
The ratio DOUBLED in 5 years and exceeds the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble by ~40 percentage points.
All while, the US stock market cap to GDP is sitting near a record of 207%.
Will this revert to the mean?
MY TOP 10 STOCKS FOR 2025🧵
These stocks were up 14.6% on average in January vs 2.7% of S&P500 🤯
1) Alibaba $BABA
The biggest ecommerce in the world with >$1T GMV and the biggest cloud services provider in China at 9X Fwd PE.
Natan's fair value: ~$140 (+41%)
.
The Final Phase of the S&P 500 Blow-Off Top Soon
The a Top, Reversal & 20% Crash to Start the Bear Market
The Coming Recession is Closer Than You Think
Stock Market Video Here
https://t.co/KsaoXEqdAE
$SPX $SPY #SP500 #Blowofftop $QQQ $NDX $VIX $RUT $IWM $DJIA $DJIA $AAPL $NVDA $ES_F $NQ_F #recession #tariffs #tariff #tradewars #tradewar #Trump #stockmarketcrash $BTC
‼️US car market BUBBLE is popping:
US auto loans serious (90+ days) delinquency rates hit 3.0% in Q4 2024, the highest in 14 years - the Financial Crisis recovery period.
Serious delinquencies now surpassed the 2001 recession and the 2020 Crisis levels.
Truly concerning.
Still blowing my mind how similar 1929 $DJI is to 2025.
RSI & SMI indicators both at the same levels & forming identical patterns.
If algos are literally just repeating 1929 then markets open lower next week, rally until VIXpiration, then BoJ J24 + Israel Lebanon J26 blow it up.