1- Catering to player “B” , im absolutely sure that no cancel = complaining about being “locked in” at odds they no longer like if the odds move against them. What if an important player is ruled out? Even if the news re-prices the market appropriately, these players are not price sensitive. Rather they’re absolutely sensitive to news/narratives. Offering an escape hatch via a “100% cashout” at any point before game start would be another player friendly benefit, at zero cost (!) to the house
2- Would you not be concerned about sharps / syndicates who dummy the sharp books closing line for the purpose of getting more money down on the derivates (live betting)? If they can do it for live betting they would also be able to do that for this product. Tilting the vig based on betting volume would instead incentivizes sharps to balance the book by taking the “less popular bets” more often - decreasing the house’s volatility too
Variable odds would be the way to go imo. The market equivalent would be a market-on-open order (in this case the “market” simultaneously opens and closes upon game start). Placing the bet would debit your account, show a live payout estimation based on the current market price (e.g. if the game were to start now), and be cancellable at any point leading up to the start time.
Say the fee/vig is set to -104/-104, I think it would make sense to tilt the vig based on how one sided the volume is. The purpose is to discourage syndicate activity and encourage balancing volume on both sides while still always being able to promote “reduced juice” —> a bet always better than -110. The worst case scenario is 100% betting volume on one side leading to +100/-108 odds. Thoughts?
@schizovigilante @AgentSamM@ScadMeta@MLBNetwork if winning / not winning a World Series is the only metric then isn’t the 1 year rental of soto also worthless? Padres have a much stronger 2025 roster as a result of this trade while the Yankees have nothing to show.