Peter

Social psychologist in training. ❤️ financial markets. Tweet mostly for myself. Ethos: think long term, be optimistic. Usually follow back.

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

$NVDA bear case
- trading at a forward PE over 30 - assuming 50% growth in ‘26, 80% gross margins
- competition coming (AMD, INTC, AWS, others)
- Data center spend growing slower (15-20%) so needs even higher share to sustain growth
- PE of 30 at $3.7T valuation implies future cash flows sustainable for DECADES
- MSFT only tech company to remain atop most valuable companies for decades (AAPL has notched one decade)
- buy from pessimists, sell to optimists — no pessimists left

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

$NFLX seems like a short up here

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Either we get a continuation of yesterday’s bear market rally tomorrow or we take our next leg lower.

Possible exception: another day with a huge range in the VIX/SPY, in which neither hits a new high/low and both close in the post-liberation day range

$spy $qqq

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Macro positives:
- All data this week supports idea economy still growing
- earnings have been good
- US policy should become more friendly

Negatives:
- macro numbers nearly all came in below expectations
- $GOOGL missed revenue, $AAPL $AMZN $MSFT were inline. All show slowing growth
- DOGE likely to affect overall employment
- $AAPL and $AMZN trade at multiples that suggest massive earnings growth - how if revenue growth slowing?
- DeepSeek not yet reflected in capex or semiconductor valuation
- DeepSeek reaction underscored headline risk to equity prices — still priced for perfection

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

$AAPL seems totally nuts at <3% earnings yield when treasuries yield almost 5%

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

So far so good $MRNA. This name caught my eye when Goldman kept its triple digit price target even after the huge decline.

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

$MRNA short interest will take several days to cover. Looking at price action to see if bulls can take back control.

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

$MRNA short interest will take several days to cover. Looking at price action to see if bulls can take back control.

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Compare $MRNA to $BNTX
Does it really make sense for $MRNA to have dropped so much more?

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

$GS maintaining its buy rating and +$100 price target on $MRNA is ballsy

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

What a run! $COIN

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Terrible sentiment - "high fees" "falling crypto markets" "no moat" etc - but it has trust, users, and a mission that main street appreciates and the cryptoeconomy benefits from. A business that profits by strategically amplifying a huge secular evolution.. $coin is a no brainer

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Bears have been nearly vanquished.
Volatility is cheap.
Most sectors seem fairly to fully valued.

But who knows, optimism usually pays. Time will tell…

$SPY $QQQ

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Feelings are not facts

That said, I feel like this leg up is the start of a major top forming process

$NVDA likely will hit $3T market cap
$MSFT is already over $3T
$AAPL is right behind

$TLT rising reflecting steepening inverted yield curve

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

I’m guessing they’re going to be wrong this week

[Dune AnaIytics @DuneAnaIytics]

The results are in and folks lean bullish for the fifth straight week. This is the longest such streak since we went 8 last fall.

Thanks for voting!

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Bullish trend and $vix not making new highs while $spy makes new lows 🤔

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Not quite but $NVDA came close to $AAPL and looks set to have at least a moment where it is more valuable

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Two weeks from now, who has the larger market cap?

$AAPL $NVDA $QQQ

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Two weeks from now, who has the larger market cap?

$AAPL $NVDA $QQQ

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

If the market holds/grinds for a bit before the next real pullback, $nvda seems like it could top $1000. Interestingly right around there equals $2.5T in market cap

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

Also: in the last two major BTC runs in 2017 and 2021 led to tops that became support in the next run, suggesting
1) much higher $BTC from here
2) much larger asset base trading crypto, with no exchange capable of tightroping regulators and competitors like $coin

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

I am slowly moving money into various crypto assets, especially my trading money, as I think there's still arbitrage opportunities from so many haters whose reasoning and knowledge is remarkably superficial when probed relative to their conviction they're right

[Peter @MrMarketFan]

$META will fail on mobile (craters to $20 despite dominance in fastest growing space)
$NFLX low margin distribution and can’t compete against dominant players (mkt cap fell to $3B)
$AAPL just a hardware company
$CMG will never recover from E. coli scare
And on and on…