@ShaanVP & @thesamparr discuss business ideas and market trends. Sometimes guests like @MrBeast or @TonyRobbins join them. Part of the @HubSpot Media Network.
After selling Oculus to Facebook, @PalmerLuckey built Anduril into a $61B defense empire.
@ShaanVP on Palmer's most damning insight:
The entire US defense industry is designed to be expensive and slow. Here's why:
Cost-plus model: contractors make 10% on whatever the job costs.
The more expensive the job, the more they make. The longer it takes, the better.
The result: the military buys from companies whose entire incentive is to make everything cost more and take longer.
Anduril's first pitch deck slide:
"We are going to save Americans hundreds of billions. And we are going to make hundreds of billions."
Palmer: "Amazon reinvested all profits for 20 years. That's what gave them a durable advantage. That's what we're doing."
Actions speak louder than words. Always look at where the money goes.
Full episode: https://t.co/0eBJJRtEOa
@thesamparr@ShaanVP
Joe Liemandt built Trilogy into one of the biggest software companies of the 90s.
2,000 employees and Fortune 500 clients.
but, his head of HR scrapped every strategy doc he ever wrote.
the replacement: three lines, three words each.
the rule was simple. if you can't say the opposite of the statement, it doesn't belong on the list.
Joe wanted to add "we value integrity."
Jim cut it because no company says they're the anti-integrity company.
every line has to have a real other side. if no one would argue it, it means nothing.
watch the full episode: https://t.co/O4teAXxHWy
A woman named CatGPT used ChatGPT to build a product and sold $800K in 5 months.
The product: an old-school landline phone that connects via Bluetooth to your actual phone.
Now she's building Cat Labs. An entire brand around undoing everything your smartphone does.
Sam's vision for where this goes:
- Handheld GPS (instead of Google Maps)
- Old school alarm clock (no notifications)
- Phone jail (for screen addiction)
Is this crazy? Or is anti-phone the next big Gen Z trend? Because this woman could build a billion-dollar brand betting on it.
Full episode: https://t.co/voH6Ucxnyi
@thesamparr@ShaanVP
Joseph Campbell said "follow your bliss."
then he changed it.
he said he wished he'd said follow your blisters instead.
here's why that's different:
bliss sounds like joy, but blisters are a receipt.
evidence of a price you paid over and over again, not because you forced yourself to, but because you couldn't stop.
the test in finding your "thing": where do you suffer willingly? where do you show up on the days you didn't plan to, or the nights you're already tired?
that's a signal.
find the thing that gives you blisters, and chase after it.
The entire reality TV industry exists because MTV was too broke to hire writers.
MTV co-founder Tom Freston on how it happened:
MTV wanted a soap opera but couldn't afford writers.
So they found a loft in downtown Manhattan, put 7-8 random people inside, hid cameras everywhere, and edited the footage into episodes.
That became The Real World.
The cast had no idea they'd become reality stars because such a thing didn't exist yet.
Then one day Sharon Osbourne said, "A crew following me and Ozzy around would be an amazing show." That idea became The Osbournes.
Now there are 50 categories of reality TV and an entire industry worth billions.
All because MTV couldn't afford writers in 1992.
Full Episode: https://t.co/1bzzokDLNV
@thesamparr
"Being 21, offered to be a billionaire, and just having the audacity to turn it down."
MTV co-founder Tom Freston on offering young Zuckerberg $1.7B for Facebook:
Facebook was 3 years old with an $8M/year revenue.
Tom's team offered Zuckerberg a ride on the company plane for Thanksgiving. Zuckerberg got on, and his parents picked him up at the airport.
Still said no.
Full Episode: https://t.co/1bzzokDLNV
@thesamparr
Joe Liemandt ( @jliemandt ) in 1998: "I thought Warren Buffett was an idiot."
Sees his returns in 2001: "Maybe I'm the idiot."
So he decided to predict what Buffett would say next.
His standard: watch Warren Buffett being interviewed, pause it before he answers, and say exactly what Warren is going to say.
"I'm so into the way he thinks. I know what he thinks. I can answer the question the way he would."
When Warren said something Joe didn't predict, he'd go back and research until he understood why he missed it.
His rule: if you're gonna start a business, you have to be the best in the world at your field. No exceptions.
Today, he uses the same framework at Alpha High to train the next generation: "Can you beat Google? Can you beat the LLMs?"
Anyone can quote Warren Buffett, but Joe Liemandt can finish his sentences.
Full episode: https://t.co/5TMpTWw3GL
@thesamparr@ShaanVP
.@chadjanis sold @grunsdaily for over a billion dollars.
the company was 32 months old, he raised $50M, and it was profitable before the exit.
here's the exact math he used to know he had a real business:
LTV to CAC ratio.
most people track it, but almost nobody tracks it right.
Chad's version: LTV = fully burdened gross profit over 36 months. the real number after everything: product, fulfillment, shipping, merchant fees.
the benchmarks:
3x LTV:CAC = table stakes. you have a business.
below 3x = fix it before you scale.
the mistake most DTC founders make: they calculate LTV on revenue, not profit.
month 1: $30K in revenue.
month 2: $230K.
he burned $8M getting to profitability.
the math isn't complicated, most people just don't do it honestly.
the most common reason smart people fail at investing is temperament.
@MohnishPabrai has studied Buffett and Munger for decades.
his conclusion: the traits that make someone a great investor have everything to do with the ability to sit still, do nothing, and wait for the one pitch that's impossible to miss.
new episode with Mohnish out now.
Everyone knows how Elon Musk kicked their asses. Tesla, SpaceX. The guy is vocal about his exact techniques.
But no one copies him. Why? Because legacy companies are terrible at cloning.
@MohnishPabrai on why Boeing can't replicate Elon:
It all comes down to Elon's "Idiot Index." This is the mental model behind everything he builds.
It's a simple ratio: the total cost of a finished component divided by the cost of its raw materials.
If the index is high, a finished part costs $1,000 but the raw aluminum inside costs $10, you're being an idiot.
You need to fix the process.
Without that one framework, there is no Tesla, no SpaceX, nothing.
Boeing knows this. Every legacy car company knows this. Elon is an open book. He literally published the entire playbook.
But it's not in their DNA.
Mohnish: "After knowing all of that, there is no movement towards it."
The lesson: Knowing what to do and having the organizational culture to execute it are completely different things.
Most companies would rather fail the old way than look foolish trying something new.
Full Episode: https://t.co/07ggDOuUcS
@ShaanVP
.@MohnishPabrai's most controversial investing rule: "The mistress is always hotter than the wife."
Here's what it means:
What you own = the wife. You know her flaws, and you see her every day.
What you don't own = the mistress. The unknown looks exciting; she just looks hot.
The trap: You want to swap. "I own this company, but that other one looks better."
This is where investors lose money.
Mohnish's rule: You have to be convinced the mistress is truly hotter, not just the appearance of being hotter.
Most investors swap too often. The bar for action should be extremely high.
Warren Buffett read 19 years of Japanese company reports before finding his $10B opportunity in year 20.
The lesson: Raise your standards. For investments, for people, for everything.
Not being interested in always taking action can give you a huge leg up.
Full Episode: https://t.co/07ggDOuUcS
@ShaanVP
round 3 with Mohnish Pabrai is live
we talked mental models, Buffett, Berkshire, AI, and why most smart investors stay poor
(if you liked the first 2 rounds, you'll love this one)
"Only 1% of Americans are good investors" and the rest 99% need to watch this.
We just spent 2 hours with the only investor Warren Buffett AND Charlie Munger both called a close friend.
@MohnishPabrai is back for round three, and this time he's giving away everything he held back the first two times.
Here's what he told @ShaanVP:
- DO NOT INVEST in the S&P
- Clone everything. Original ideas are overrated
- The mistress is always hotter than the wife
- The less you do the richer you get
- Never use leverage. Rick Guerin lost everything
Full Episode: https://t.co/r9r520VvsC
"everyone's meetings are twice as long as they need to be."
@garyvee's average meeting is 15 minutes.
70% consists of decisions. 30% is getting informed.
you come in, you get to the point, you leave with a direction.
most meetings are long because nobody made a decision about what the meeting was for. the 15-minute forcing function fixes that.
he's also spending more time with his family than ever.
this structure didn't cost him time, it created it.
.@chadjanis sold Gruns to Unilever for $1.2B, and here's exactly what he did differently:
He tried a new format.
Or in his words:
"A good product doesn't mean making a better version of something that exists. A good product equals new white space."
The examples you can't deny:
- Zyn: Nicotine pouches. New format, no competitors. Now massive.
- Whip/Ultra: Took Zyn's format, swapped nicotine for caffeine. New category created.
- Mary Ruth Organics: Liquid vitamins instead of pills. Big business.
- Daily Dose: Liver health in shot glasses instead of capsules. Different format.
Chad's warning:
"You might find a little success copying someone, but you're not gonna sell your business. You're not gonna be the winner."
The truth: Better ingredients don't win. New formats do.
Stop trying to make a better protein bar.
Find a format nobody's doing yet.
Full episode: https://t.co/2UBnETTUFG
@thesamparr@ShaanVP
45% of investing mistakes may be genetic.
a 2014 Swedish study analyzed 30,000 sets of twins and found that nearly half of behaviors like excessive trading, performance chasing, and holding losing positions too long appear to have a genetic component.
you can't change the 45%.
but 55% of investing behavior comes from environment, and that portion is entirely improvable through the proper systems.
@thesamparr broke this down on MFM: "I put 80% of my money in the S&P after Howard Marks told me not to"
article: @YahooFinance
https://t.co/5weJXBigkc