Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?
Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.
For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.
Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.
Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.
IT IS NOT A CONSPIRACY THEORY THAT BINANCE TRADES AGAINST ITS OWN USERS 🧵
CZ OWNS TWO MARKET MAKERS CALLED MERIT PEAK AND SIGMA CHAIN THAT WERE PROVEN TO BE TRADING AGAINST BINANCE'S USERS WITH BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF CZ'S MONEY
THESE FIRMS WERE GIVEN SPECIAL ACCESS TO INFORMATION INSIDE OF THE "BINANCE BLACK BOX" WHICH IS NOT AVAILABLE PUBLICLY GIVING THEM A MASSIVE INSIDER ADVANTAGE
THEY WOULD THEN WASH TRADE AND MANIPULATE THE MARKET IN ORDER TO LIQUIDATE USERS AND INFLATE VOLUME
CZ'S BIGGEST LIE OF ALL IS THAT HE DOESN'T TRADE
NOT ONLY IS HE THE BIGGEST WHALE IN ALL OF CRYPTO BUT HE LITERALLY TRADES AGAINST HIS OWN USERS
THE CRYPTO INDUSTRY WILL NOT HAVE A BRIGHT FUTURE AS LONG AS CZ IS THE FACE OF IT
LOCK CZ UP AND THROW AWAY THE KEYS
@bgarlinghouse@arrington In short: If XRP truly facilitates $21 trillion/year (14% of $150T), the price could plausibly be in the $10–$30+ range by 2030, depending heavily on velocity and real demand.
@yemekteroru_ Kedim 160 gr et yiyebilir 🤣
ne yazık ki Alman kebaplarını daha ucuz ve iki kat daha fazla dolgu (altın gibi ağır) tercih ederim wtf kardeşim!
Ray Dalio said: "Most investors should have between 5-15% of their portfolio in gold."
When the dollar devalues, gold is YOUR hedge against it.
That's why central banks are accumulating it more than ever before.
If you're holding gold right now, read this:
🚨 SILVER DUMP WAS DONE BY JPMORGAN, AND I'VE GOT PROOF.
A COMEX report says JPMorgan closed its silver short around ~$78.
Silver went from ~$121 to ~$74, then settled around ~$78.
That's the EXACT level.
That timing isn't random.
Now connect the dots.
On Dec 2, 2025, the US banks had 17,838 silver futures short.
That's ~89.19M oz.
At ~$121, that's ~$10.8B in short notional.
That one fact explains a lot.
This is the same play you see in crypto.
- They push price to pull leverage in.
- Then they dump it into thin liquidity.
- Stops get clipped.
- Longs get liquidated.
- Then the cover happens into the panic.
THIS IS NOT GOOD AT ALL.
And now trust is breaking.
People don't know where to park money anymore.
- DOLLAR IS DUMPING
- GOLD IS DUMPING
- STOCKS ARE DUMPING
- CRYPTO IS DUMPING
- BONDS ARE PUMPING
Watch the flows.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
🚨BREAKING: Silver prices are exploding due to a severe global supply shortage.
The physical market can no longer meet soaring demand.
Here is what is actually going on 👇
1. China is changing the rules.
Starting January 1, 2026, China will restrict silver exports.
To export silver, companies will now need government licenses.
Only large, state approved firms qualify:
- At least 80 tonnes of annual production
- Around $30 million in credit lines
This effectively blocks small and mid size exporters.
China controls roughly 60–70% of global silver supply. When China tightens exports, global supply drops immediately.
This is the same tactics China used with rare earth metals.
2. The silver market was already short supply.
Silver has been in a structural deficit for 5 straight years. That means demand is higher than supply every single year.
For 2025:
- Global demand: 1.24 billion ounces
- Global supply: 1.01 billion ounces
That is a gap of 100–250 million ounces. And this gap is expected to get worse after China’s export limits.
Mining supply is not growing:
Silver mining is mostly a by product of copper and zinc mining.
New mines take 10+ years to build, Ore quality is falling, Recycling is not enough to fill the gap.
There is no quick fix here.
3. Physical silver inventories are collapsing.
This is where it gets serious.
- COMEX inventories are down 70% since 2020
- London vaults are down 40%
- Shanghai inventories are at 10-year lows
At current demand, some regions hold only 30-45 days of usable silver.
This is why physical premiums are exploding.
In Shanghai:
- Physical silver trades at $80+/oz
- COMEX prices are much lower
This price gap means buyers are paying extra just to get real silver.
4. Paper silver is completely disconnected from reality.
There is an extreme imbalance between paper silver and real silver.
The paper to physical ratio is around 356:1.
That means:
- For every 1 ounce of real silver
- There are hundreds of paper claims
If even a small percentage of buyers ask for real delivery, the system breaks.
Markets understand this. That is why price moves are becoming vertical.
5. Industrial demand keeps rising.
Silver is not just a safe haven metal.
It is critical for:
- Solar panels
- Electric vehicles
- Electronics
- Medical devices
Industrial use now makes up 50-60% of total silver demand.
There is no substitute for silver in many of these uses.
Banks and institutions are reacting to:
- Supply limits
- Physical shortages
- Paper market risk
Silver is not rallying because of fear.
It is rallying because a real supply squeeze is playing out in real time.