THE FILM DOESNT LIE (unless it does). We cash Bonfim for a huge 3u play. It was never going to be a Belal masterclass
#UFCVegas118 +5.12u ✅
Parlay open with Lone’er as the last leg as well
Find me a capper on Bonfim, Allen via Dec, and didn’t take Ziam
#UFCVegas118 Bonfim v Belal OFFICIAL Pick: Bonfim ML (+115) 3u (THREAD 🧵)
HOW BONFIM LOSES
Before anything else, let's be honest about the risk factors because that's what separates analysis from cheerleading. The biggest threat to this play is Bonfim initiating offensive wrestling early and gassing, or getting lazy with his takedown defense. He's not a high-volume striker. If he lets Belal clinch up and grind, Belal can steal rounds on volume alone. The difference between winning 3 rounds and winning 2 could come down to exactly that. People love to harp on Bonfim's cardio. Fair. But here's the context that gets missed: his cardio issues have shown up when he's been hit by bigger punchers and when he's been the one shooting. Neither of those should be factors here. This is also his second straight fight camp preparing for five rounds. He knows what's coming. If the Bonfim corner is smart, they keep this on the feet and let the style matchup do the work.
THE STYLE MATCHUP
Belal's wrestling is overrated. Significantly. If Islam Makhachev is a 10 out of 10 wrestler, Belal is a 6.5. That's still good. But people talk about him like he's going to drag Bonfim to the mat and smother him for 25 minutes. That's not what his wrestling actually is. He doesn't have physically imposing wrestling and his top game is nowhere near the level of other elite grapplers in the division. Look at who his wrestling has dominated: Leon Edwards and Stephen Thompson. Two strikers. Both with below-average ability to get off their backs and weaker physical frames. That's the context for Belal's grappling resume. DO NOT FORGET THAT LEON EDWARDS TOOK BELAL'S BACK FOR AN ENTIRE ROUND. Then watch Jack Della Maddalena - a man who got physically dominated by Islam - make Belal's takedown attempts look amateur. JDM held Belal to just 3:21 of control time across five rounds and didn't give up his first takedown until round four. That's not a wrestling performance. That's a shutdown. Then Ian Garry defended all seven of Muhammad's takedown attempts in November. Back to back fights. Same story. Belal sets his takedowns up with punches and he lands them most consistently when opponents shell up with a high guard, exposing their hips. Go watch Bonfim fight. He doesn't do that. He has some of the best boxing defense in the division - exceptional parrying, tight frames, active hands. He doesn't sit in a shell and eat shots to the body. That's exactly the type of defensive profile that takes away Belal's entry points. As long as Bonfim doesn't go chasing front chokes and giving away position, he should not be getting dominated on the ground here.
And physically? Bonfim looks like a different species compared to Edwards and Thompson. Massive frame, powerful legs, legitimate scramble ability. This isn't a soft target for a wrestler. Bonfim's weapons are perfectly suited for this matchup.
Bonfim has a fast, stiff jab and heavy low kicks. Belal is primarily a boxer when it comes to striking — he rarely throws leg kicks himself and keeps a heavy base. That heavy base is great for wrestling. It is terrible for checking kicks. When Bonfim lands on the lead leg it will accumulate. And he doesn't just throw leg kicks as standalone shots — he builds them into combinations that create openings for his submission game. What Bonfim may lack in cardio, he'll make up for through damage. A compromised nose and a dead lead leg make Belal's wrestling game plan increasingly irrelevant as the fight progresses. You can't shoot on one leg.
The Spurs literally blowout the Thunder in every game where they're allowed to match OKC's physicality.
The Thunder are nothing special when you can get as handsy with them. Really shows how league manufactured their success is. Balance the whistle and they crumble.
And btw I’ll NEVER tolerate Chalamet slander.
This dude got BILLIONAIRE Kylie Jenner sitting 2nd row IN Cleveland on Memorial Day for a 40 point blowout.
#AlwaysKnicks@RealChalamet 🫡
INSPIRING: On this day in 1932, Amelia Earhart departed Newfoundland in her journey to become the first woman to fly solo across the Atlantic Ocean.
Himself a trail blazer, #Bears RB Kyle Monangai is the first player with the last name "Monangai" in NFL history. Incredible.
🚨 Clubs Benefiting Most from VAR Errors This Season 👀
Arsenal — 18
Bournemouth — 7
Chelsea — 7
Fulham — 6
Manchester City — 6
Manchester United — 6
Aston Villa — 5
Brighton — 5
Newcastle — 5
Tottenham — 4
Wolves — 4
Brentford — 3
Liverpool — 3
West Ham — 3
Burnley — 2
Everton — 2
Leeds United — 2
Sunderland — 2
Crystal Palace — 1
Nottingham Forest — 1