Nick Thomas

Carolinas-based. US Indices & Crypto Speculator. Obsessed with markets in all forms. Founder of @primatetrading & @thetribetrades

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

🚨𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 (𝐕𝟏 / 𝐀𝐥𝐩𝐡𝐚) 𝐢𝐬 𝐋𝐈𝐕𝐄🚨

Early version, but the goal is simple: make high-quality market research free and accessible.

Sign up once and get EXCLUSIVE market updates, reports, and video content via the site + email.

More features coming soon...
👉 https://t.co/M9WZe9pzIJ

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

You will see a lot of "gains" on social media today, but don't let that blindside you; for every gain, there is someone else on the other side of the trade holding longs during this downtrend.

Survival is key. If you can survive days like these, even after stupid decisions, you'll most likely do well down the road.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

YM M15 Chart Annotations + Commentary (06-05-26)

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

You will see a lot of "gains" on social media today, but don't let that blindside you; for every gain, there is someone else on the other side of the trade holding longs during this downtrend.

Survival is key. If you can survive days like these, even after stupid decisions, you'll most likely do well down the road.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

NQ M5 Chart Annotations + Commentary (06-04-2026)

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

MYM Execution + Commentary (06/03/26)

Shorted 7 micros early in the Asia session and took profit during the continuation at the Cash Open.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

FYI: I had two prior losses before this trade, but this one made up for them—and then some.

It isn't always sunshine and rainbows. To be honest, it’s almost never consistently sunshine and rainbows in the markets.

As @Trader_Dante said beautifully: "Welcome to the hardest game in the world. Unfortunately, you're playing with some of the sharpest, fastest, most intelligent, well-informed, stubbornly irrational and, in many cases, unethical minds in the world... So, leave all your dreams of making quick and easy money behind. The first aim is survival. Your absolute first goal is to learn how to stay in the game."

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

MYM Execution + Commentary (06/03/26)

Shorted 7 micros early in the Asia session and took profit during the continuation at the Cash Open.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

The Macro Thesis: $NQ vs. $YM Divergence

My core commentary for the indices recently has focused on NQ continued strength, with the AI and software trades catching massive bids over the last few sessions.

This has forced a major repricing in the Dow, creating a distinct intermarket divergence. We’ve seen multiple scenarios lately where NQ takes a big drop while YM spikes upward, and vice versa.nThis behavior tells me that larger players are actively selling blue chips to rotate liquidity over to the tech trade.

Do I know if this specific dynamic will continue forever?

No, but it has been the dominant recent trend, which is why I’ve been much more structurally bearish on YM than NQ.

Pre-Market Entry & Game Plan

I established my initial short position pre-market right after the futures opened. Because the macroeconomic bias on the Dow was heavily skewed to the downside, the plan was to look for a reliable intraday setup to add to the position once the cash session opened.

The Opening Execution: Spotting the Trap

Taking a look at the 9:30 AM ET open, Bar 1 painted a bull bar that managed to trade cleanly above the 9:10 AM pre-market high.When Bar 2 opened, it initially pushed up and traded above the Bar 1 high.

However, the buyers completely failed to sustain the breakout. The momentum evaporated, creating a textbook failed ORB (Opening Range Breakout) and trapping the early breakout traders at the highs.

The Reversal & Risk Management

Once that bull trap was confirmed, the market reversed violently to the downside, aligning perfectly with the higher-timeframe M15 and M30 bearish trends. As the market flush gathered speed, I executed my scale-out plan:

First Partials: Covered a portion of the position as price sliced heavily underneath the ORL (Opening Range Low).

Runner Management: Continued to secure profits at lower liquidity targets as the cascade developed. I'm still holding a final portion of the short as I type this out—the market actually just filled me on another 2 contracts during this latest drop.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

One of the most important lessons I've learned in the financial markets is...

having consistent cash flow outside the market.

The less you need the market, the better your decisions become.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

https://t.co/UuLbNlRoX8

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

@The_Jolly_Co All the best!

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

I had this thought as well, but at some point, where are investors supposed to go?

The dollar? At this point, I don't think so.

Equities unironically are the current safe haven; the question is when will that flip.

Very sad to see the price action of Oil.. Not good for anyone.

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

This some wild shit
Kind of feels like everyone is simply ignoring the fact oil is up infinite

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

@The_Jolly_Co Guess we will find out together as we both can’t predict what will happen

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

My main point before I sleep is i do believe AI will be useful. I use it everyday.

But currently it’s doing more harm than good.

Earnings are about how investors perceive the future. None of the valuations and market caps of big tech giants represent their book value.

It’s all a story right now.

Yes CapEx is growing due to industries having to force their spending to adapt to the increase of energy usage.

Yes the economy has been doing well.

But there is a domino effect that will most likely play out and has played out with every single big technological advancement i history.

And it ends up hurting the poorer / average citizen rather than the wealthy.

So yes I’m bullish on AI long term, but bearish on the over leverage from investors and companies will cause short / mid term.

Plus there’s other factors that I mentioned not just the over leveraging with new technology.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

@The_Jolly_Co I believe AI will reduce costs but surely you don’t believe it’s all sun shine and rainbows?

There will be a very difficult reset before that comes reality, and that’s no where near yet.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

I get that Lee, but your average American in the current economy can’t save after expenses.

Yes higher bond yields track with higher growth but when that growth is because of one sector that creates sensitive risk.

Yields aren’t just rising because of the growth rate and I think we both know that.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

I've enjoyed the discussion. Hope you have a great weekend.

At the end of the day I hope the U.S is headed into the right direction, but currently I just think there are more negatives than positives with the way things are moving for younger generations in the short / mid term.

Would love to see that change.

Usually though things tend to work out, but I expect some pretty big bumps.

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

I never said the debt was new, but there is a reason the trend of yields has flipped from the downtrend the last few decades and the DXY has been weakening.

There is a reason bond prices have been falling since Covid and that was only 6 years ago..

That is my exact point. The grid was NOT built for AI demand and since it was not built that will play into the domino effect into the supply chain.

https://t.co/On6bUzN2a0

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

@The_Jolly_Co Sustainability, environmental health, and grid stability. The list goes on.

Even Sam Altman has major concerns about energy demand lol

[Nick Thomas @noticetrades]

@The_Jolly_Co Since you want to use AI