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Two US data reports land 90 minutes apart today and they're about to contradict each other. One says boom. The other says recession.
The 5 markets caught in between, and the line in each report that actually moves them: https://t.co/5DRD5Smawm
Everyone's watching the House. The House was never the story. The Senate quietly flipped while nobody was looking.
5 things that flipped it, and the one number that tells you whether it holds: https://t.co/dguJ5TWFdO
.@falconfinance unlocks 0.75% of total ethereum:0xfa1c09fc8b491b6a4d3ff53a10cad29381b3f949 supply on 29 Sep, $10.1M and 2.39% of the float. It runs USDf, a synthetic dollar backed by collateral deposits, with $1.8B circulating.
August PCE lands 30 Sep, the print that decides October.
Follow for more Perp Desk updates on @OfficialApeXdex
Crypto headlines on Perp Desk, our bi-weekly update.
The US 10y hit 5.11%, its highest since 2007, and @Bitcoin went with it. Manufacturing PMI printed 57 against 53.6 expected and Fed governor Barr said more hikes are needed. October hike odds are now 70%.
More below 👇
5 up, 81 down on the ApeX board. Median name -6.6%.
litecoin:native +9.2% is the only real bid, riding the old-coin rotation that took bitcoin-cash:native up 30% this week after CME said it will list Bitcoin Cash futures on 19 Oct.
$SPX -14.1% is the extreme.
The @Nasdaq is up 4% in a month, 1% off its high. The Russell is down 4%. Today's @SPGlobalPMI is the survey that speaks to the half that's falling, because small caps earn at home and mega caps don't.
5 stocks and commodities that move first: https://t.co/54VWOxTMPl
.@doublezero unlocks 16.57% of its circulating float on 2 Oct, $30M against a $182M cap. Comfortably the biggest of the fortnight.
ethereum:0x582d872a1b094fc48f5de31d3b73f2d9be47def1 follows on 23 Sep at 1.31%.
August PCE lands 25 Sep.
Follow for more Perp Desk updates.
Crypto headlines on Perp Desk, our bi-weekly update.
@Kalshi's ethereum:native perp did $539M of 24h volume on $3.1M of open interest, a 174x ratio. An analyst found repeated $5,500 trades were up to 58% of it on four days. Kalshi says volume is max payout, not cash.
More below 👇
59 up, 26 down on the ApeX board, median name +2.5%.
Memecoins swept it: ethereum:0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933 +25.9%, $BONK +20.5%, $WIF +20.1%, with $TAO +18.2%.
$AR -15.0% is the only real casualty. This is what a short squeeze looks like on day two.
ApeX Insights: The Week Ahead
Almost no data this week. October still gets repriced; ten-plus Fed speaking slots and a state visit, with nothing hard to anchor either.
1⃣ Mon 21 Sep — 10:30 UTC — Fed blackout ends Goolsbee is first out, the first committee voice since Wednesday's 12–0 hike to 3.75–4.00%. Williams speaks three times this week, twice before European lunch. Jefferson and Barkin follow Tuesday.
2⃣ Wed 23 Sep — 13:45 UTC — S&P Global Flash PMIs The week's main print. August composite came in at 56.0, a 52-month high. Skip the headline and read prices paid — that's the sub-index Warsh is actually watching.
3⃣ Thu 24 Sep — all day — Xi at the White House Confirmed state visit, first since 2015, with bilaterals and an evening state dinner stacked with tech and finance executives. Xi is travelling with a large business delegation. No scheduled print, but the headline risk is real and it lands mid-session. Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Q2 current account the same morning.
4⃣ Fri 25 Sep — 12:30 UTC — Durable goods, then UMich final at 14:00 Year-ahead inflation expectations hit 4.6% in the flash while sentiment fell to 47.8 from 51.7. Expectations de-anchoring is what turns one hike into a cycle.
Where we are. The dots show 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more hike before year-end, with the 2026 median at 4.1%. The Fed's own projections don't get inflation back to 2% until 2029. Warsh: "The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long."
bitcoin:native whipsawed on the decision — low of $75,065, closing near $76,100 — and moved roughly four times as much as the S&P across the two FOMC sessions.
Save this. There's no single gap risk this week, which is its own kind of trap.
How to trade each outcome, below🧵