‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez

Owner Of On Point Politics & The On Point Podcast (+60k subs on YT)

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

Stay tuned!!!

[The Public Sentiment Institute @TPSIOfficial]

We have conducted and concluded our September snap poll. Our head pollster @onpointpolitics will be reviewing the raw data on his channel today!

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

@ElectPrediction Let’s do a collaboration together!

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

ON POINT POLITICS OFFICIAL FORECAST - OHIO 2026 SENATE RACE (AS OF 9/8/2026)

🔵 Sherrod Brown: 2,120,692 votes (50.5%) (+3.0)
🔴 Jon Husted: 1,995,304 votes (47.5%)
🟡 Other: 83,995 votes (2.0%)

WATCH MY BREAKDOWN HERE: https://t.co/JHk239k9Xf

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

We are conducting a 'snap' National Poll at @TPSIOfficial for the month of September with over 500 National Registered Voters.

Stay tuned!

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

I literally don't want Republicans to lose.

[B.P. Murray @B_P_Murray]

@jrl_josh @onpointpolitics Josh, he's gone down the Candace Owens / Fuentes path. He wants republicans to lose.

So just keep that in mind with all his forecasts.

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

Several points:

The National environment is no less than D+6, given my own polling, the Gallup party ID being D+10, and the party out of power usually outperforming the polling in off year elections.

Husted was an appointed senator and has LESS of a name ID than Sherrod Brown does due to the fact that Brown was a previous senator, giving Brown a unique advantage most Democrats don’t.

Ohio is a traditional populist state that will vote for candidates who focus on their issues, like President Trump. However, it is VERY hard for Republicans for turnout low propensity voters to show up for them like President Trump does. Trump won by 11 when Moreno won by 3.5, which is a huge underperformance for Moreno. That’s because areas of the state that have rural voters didn’t show up for Moreno and only for Trump or they voted for Trump and Sherrod on the same ticket. That effect will be larger this year.

The President just isn’t popular like he was in 2024/2025. Going from +10 approval to -16 not the same as going from -3 to -9 (2017 to 2018) in terms of national approval.

[Josh @jrl_josh]

@onpointpolitics Dude, what happened to your forecasts??

Husted is the big favorite in this race.

Brown is old news and doesn’t have the incumbency anymore.

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

Several points:

The National environment is no less than D+6, given my own polling, the Gallup party ID being D+10, and the party out of power usually outperforming the polling in off year elections.

Husted was an appointed senator and has LESS of a name ID than Sherrod Brown does due to the fact that Brown was a previous senator, giving Brown a unique advantage most Democrats don’t.

Ohio is a traditional populist state that will vote for candidates who focus on their issues, like President Trump. However, it is VERY hard for Republicans for turnout low propensity voters to show up for them like President Trump does. Trump won by 11 when Moreno won by 3.5, which is a huge underperformance for Moreno. That’s because areas of the state that have rural voters didn’t show up for Moreno and only for Trump or they voted for Trump and Sherrod on the same ticket. That effect will be larger this year.

The President just isn’t popular like he was in 2024/2025. Going from +10 approval to -16 not the same as going from -3 to -9 (2017 to 2018) in terms of national approval.

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

Yeah, wtf is Tucker doing here.

Algebra is an essential everyday skill most people use, even if they’re literally not doing “8x+3=24” on a piece of paper

If more people proficiently knew Algebra, we’d be living in a much better place.

[Max 📟 @MaxNordau]

Tucker Carlson asks why algebra puts letters into numbers.

Jess Elofson explains: "I think just to fuck with you."

They discuss how they've never met anyone in their life who uses algebra, which is "fake math" for people "in the matrix."

They conclude that caring about algebra is something that only "good little goy slaves" do.

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

@MaxNordau Yeah not gonna lie I don’t know what Tucker is talking about here.

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

I have modeled four of the competitive Senate Elections for this year.

3 out of 4 states, the Democrats outperform the polling

Michigan --> Abdul El-Sayed outperforms polling
Ohio --> Sherrod Brown outperforms polling
Iowa --> Josh Turek outperforms polling

Only in Texas does Ken Paxton, actually outperform the polling by several points compared to where he's at the aggregate.

This makes sense because Ken Paxton faced a rigorous primary and defeated an INCUMBENT Senator and was the base's favorite to be the candidate.

The other three Republican candidates were unanimously given the nomination with basically no contest whatsoever.

Ken Paxton is the ONLY one out of the four Republican candidates in these four states who has strength with LOW-PROPENSITY TRUMP VOTERS, who have caused recent polling errors this cycle.

Checks out.

Iowa: D+1
Ohio: D+3
Michigan: D+4
Texas: R+1

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

2026 MIDTERMS LIVE BREAKDOWN - STATE BY STATE https://t.co/jFyQnwFbIL

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

I'm going live in 25 minutes. Will be showing my latest forecast for Ohio as well!

LIVE: https://t.co/tyE1k9SCuU

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

> New Mexico being the most likely to actually flip Republican out of Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and Minnesota

> Trump literally does the one thing to make it not winnable by pissing off Hispanics and others in the state.

He’s literally throwing away so much opportunity. So many different things he can be working on!

[MeidasTouch @MeidasTouch]

Trump suggests renaming New Mexico to "New America"

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

ON POINT POLITICS OFFICIAL FORECAST - TEXAS 2026 SENATE (AS OF 9/6/2026)

🔴 Ken Paxton: 3,591,032 votes (49.2%) (+1.4)
🔵 James Talarico: 3,489,974 votes (47.8%)
🟡 Other: 219,006 votes (3.0%)

WATCH MY BREAKDOWN HERE: https://t.co/frzTgyB143

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

Will be posting my Texas Senate forecast today.

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

ON POINT POLITICS OFFICIAL FORECAST - MICHIGAN 2026 SENATE (AS OF 9/5/2026)

🔵 Abdul El-Sayed: 2,076,659 votes (50.6%) (+4.2)
🔴 Mike Rogers: 1,900,345 votes (46.4%)
🟡 Other: 122,996 votes (3.0%)

WATCH MY BREAKDOWN HERE: https://t.co/HfzKCpkrqR

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

@RealAlbanianPat Thanks for this.

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

I’m honored.

My poll: D+10

Rich Baris: D+11

Mark Mitchell: D+10

Robert Barnes: Agrees

😂😂😂

Gallup Party ID is D+10 btw (literally predicts every single election)

[Mr. Anti-Communist 🇺🇲 @Father_McCarthy]

Rich Baris, Robert Barnes, Mark Mitchell and Lester Tellez will be sent to Gitmo after the midterms.

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

For reference, Romania has a corruption index 20 PONITS lower the United States, as is on the same corruption index level as Jamaica, China, Namibia, and many other countries known for political prosecution.

[CNN @CNN]

Romanian prosecutors have officially indicted social media influencer Andrew Tate for trafficking minors, money laundering, sex with a minor and witness tampering and his brother Tristan for complicity, years after they began investigating them. https://t.co/EsYWSZSodb

[‘On Point Politics’ - Lester Tellez @onpointpolitics]

Q&A - 2026 MIDTERMS - WHO'S WINNING THIS YEAR? https://t.co/nhNUWqlv08