Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

Pleased to be in Bangkok for the IMFER Conference, co-hosted by @IMFNews and @BankofThailand. Looking forward to discussing how shifts in trade, investment, technology, and finance are reshaping the global economy and geoeconomic policymaking. https://t.co/F6NSbNDmmq

[IMF @IMFNews]

Governments can respond to energy and food price shocks in ways that help vulnerable people and keep businesses open without further straining public finances. See our blog. 
https://t.co/iNWfO0ucXm

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

Throughout I have been so impressed with the quality of the people I worked with. Research assistants, junior and senior economists, support staff, colleagues, IMF management and country authorities. My heartfelt thanks to everyone. https://t.co/79o1EYpL9y

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

The time has come. Starting July 1, '26, I will be returning to @UCBerkeley. I am immensely grateful to @IMFNews for my time there as Chief Economist. In the last 4.5 years we have experienced a pandemic, inflation, war in Europe and the Middle East, tariffs, and energy crises.

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

America’s big fiscal deficits are a political choice not an economic necessity. The causes of global imbalances are not, then, as clear as some commentators allege https://t.co/TJUn5fgev0

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

The world's energy mix still relies heavily on fossil fuels. But the war should spur faster adoption of renewable energy, strengthening resilience to energy shocks, improving energy security and supporting the climate transition.

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

Our new WEO is out. War in the Middle East has halted the positive global momentum. The shock transmits through 3 channels: higher commodity prices; broadening inflation dynamics and rising inflation expectations; and a tightening of financial conditions that dampens demand.

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

Our policy message is clear: first, an early and orderly end to the war. Beyond that, central banks can afford to wait if risks to broader inflation remain contained and must be prepared to act as needed. Fiscal support needs to be targeted and temporary. https://t.co/eY0yMuk7WT

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

3/3 Post-conflict recoveries are slow, uneven & depend on peace. What helps a durable recovery? Early macroeconomic stabilization, debt restructuring, international support, domestic reforms to rebuild institutions, & state capacity. https://t.co/E09hL8uTPE

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

1/3 New analysis in our latest World Economic Outlook shows that conflicts generate large & persistent output losses in economies where the fighting occurs & nonnegligible spillovers to other countries.

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

2/3 In countries affected by conflict, output drops sharply, by about 3% at the onset & continues to decline, with cumulative losses of roughly 7% within five years. Output losses from conflicts typically exceed those associated with financial crises. https://t.co/eY0yMuk7WT

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

3/3 The takeaway: defense spending doesn’t “pay for itself.” The impact depends on how it’s financed, how long it lasts, and how much is directed at imports. Careful policy design is essential to manage trade‑offs and protect fiscal sustainability.
https://t.co/E09hL8uTPE

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

1/3 Defense spending is rising across the world as security concerns grow. Our analysis in the April 2026 World Economic Outlook shows these buildups are large—almost 3 percentage points of GDP—and mostly debt-financed.

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

2/3 Higher defense spending can boost economic activity in the short run. But it also tends to push up inflation, worsen budget balances, raise public debt, and weaken external positions. https://t.co/eY0yMuk7WT

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

Indeed, a very well-deserved John Bates Clark Medal. I am a huge fan of @ludwigstraub 's work which is highly relevant to what we do here at the @IMFNews. Congratulations Ludwig!

[Gabriel Chodorow-Reich @gchodorowreich]

Congratulations to my phenomenal colleague @ludwigstraub on a wonderful and well-deserved recognition: https://t.co/AoV5rlWzQi

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

and the companion working paper here. 7/7 https://t.co/KFp7k17cPX

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

Global current account imbalances are widening again. History shows widening imbalances can cause sectoral dislocation, often come before financial crises or abrupt reversals of capital flows. A disorderly adjustment could be exceptionally costly. 1/7

[Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas @pogourinchas]

There are no shortcuts. Durable rebalancing depends on sound domestic policies, not trade barriers. 6/7 See the full policy paper here:
https://t.co/a8kQb8Hc8k