PWP

Pak's 1st weather & climatic research blog since 2011⚡| Mentioned on the Washington Post & The Guardian UK 📰| Satellite Pictures via @zoom_earth & @windycom 🌎

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

📰While a suppressed monsoon is on the cards in 2026, local factors like moisture convergence and SSTs/regional oscillations have led to cloudbursts in 1997, 2015, and 2023, which were forecast to receive below-normal rains.

👉Read more: https://t.co/V05Q0ujVmv

#Pakistan

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

⚠️Temperatures around 38°C to 42°C are expected in #Karachi on Thursday & Friday.

There is a possibility of Lu winds, along with high humidity levels, which could push the feels-like temp to 47°C to 50°C.

Avoid sun exposure from 11 AM to 4 PM as UV index will be very high.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

🌡#Pakistan GEARS UP to become the hottest place on Earth TWICE...after May 2026!

Westerly winds have weakened significantly, allowing an extreme heatwave to return, as mentioned on June 2.

Temperatures above 50°C are possible across the upper & central parts of #Sindh.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

🔥As mentioned in the post below, the extreme heatwave weakened significantly after 29 May in Sindh and south Punjab.

BUT the extreme heatwave WILL return once the westerlies subside, possibly by next week or the week following.

Temperature will touch 50C again.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

@mnizamani Seasonal variability is likely in Sindh during the monsoon season, though indicators show that upper and/or eastern Sindh can get heavy downpours, which may act as a provincial surplus.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

💭 My opinion is that the microclimate, fueled by the warming Arabian Sea and unpredictable westerlies (ETS), has changed so much since the start of the 21st century that ENSO factors like #ElNino or #LaNina no longer solely dictate south-west/Indian monsoon trends.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

@Mohsin1985Ali Post early October, yes, it will be westerlies rather than the monsoon winds.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

@Mohsin1985Ali Would be unusual, if it does materialise.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

@AfaqAQurishi The conditions that are currently prevailing tends to cause below normal rains in Karachi: https://t.co/AI2F9MGHfZ

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

💭The other argument can be that these factors always impacted the monsoon season but researchers found about them 'recently'. Hence, the build up of such narrative.

BUT interestingly, the warming of Arabian Sea is well documented e.g major hurricanes DID NOT exist pre-1998.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

💭 Not to mention the regional variances and conditions like the MJO wave and Indian Ocean Dipole which affects the #monsoon.

There are studies that reveal the North Atlantic Ocean Oscillation and Dry Air over Central Asia also indirectly influences our monsoon season.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

⛈️ Two recent monsoon seasons similar to the upcoming one in 2026 in #Sindh were in 2023 and 2024. Both of them ended without a provincial seasonal deficit, i.e., 50% and 109% above normal, respectively.

#Karachi #ElNino

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

@T4ri1q Karachi was explored in-depth here: https://t.co/AI2F9MGHfZ

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

🗞GoP is estimating significantly below-normal monsoon rains during JJA especially around #Lahore zone citing the 'developing #ElNino'.

Interestingly, in 2023 (developing El Nino) as well as 2024 (weakening El Nino turning Neutral) Lahore received torrential downpours.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

⛈️1 year on, another extremely heavy downpour in #Lahore!

'Record-breaking' 291 mm has been recorded according to the Government of Punjab. While 200+ mm (24 hr) rains are not rare in Lahore, the slow increase is a bit worrying. In #Karachi, rains have sky-rocketed!

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

⚠️From Tue/Wed until Fri/Sat, intermittent thunderstorms can form over northern areas including #Islamabad and #Lahore.

Apart from rain, these storms contain hail and have the potential to produce strong windstorms & dust storms.

🚨Watch for powerful winds in the area!

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

🚨 At least 15 dead and over 100 injured due to freak weather in Sindh, mainly in upper and southeastern areas of the province.

The weather was relatively stable in central and southern areas of Sindh, including #Karachi, apart from occasional dusty winds.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

@faisalvista2011 No rain in sight for now in June. Drizzle is a possibility.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

⚠️#Karachi may experience dusty winds tonight, due to approaching thunderclouds from the NW.

There is a chance of a dust storm as well particularly in western & northern areas of the city.

Cirrus clouds have also increased and thickened, indicating active weather in the area.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

⚠️Pre-monsoon activity for a 3rd day in southern #Pakistan!

Thunderclouds are near upper Sindh & adjoining eastern Balochistan. More POWERFUL dust storms followed by rain & thunder likely in upper & central areas of Sindh.

#Karachi may experience dusty winds this evening/night.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

🔥As mentioned in the post below, the extreme heatwave weakened significantly after 29 May in Sindh and south Punjab.

BUT the extreme heatwave WILL return once the westerlies subside, possibly by next week or the week following.

Temperature will touch 50C again.

[PWP @PWP_Weather]

⚠️ PRE-MONSOON?
A circulation is forming over Rajasthan & adjoining S. Punjab. Coupled with the approaching ETS, it could lead to temporary, STRAY thunderclouds developing over South #Punjab & upper/SE #Sindh from Sun until Tue, weakening of EXTREME heatwave expected.