ParlayPortal

Just a fan of sports obsessed with finding an edge.

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

@cxrist1ann Banger

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

Love it brother

I went Taylor/Crooks

Hope we both cash

[Jeremy Felmet @itsJfeL]

@parlayportal

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

@itsJfeL Drop it! Love to see them

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

📊 Here’s my sheet for today (splits included)

🍷 Happy Sunday

May god bless you and yours

May you find the lord and know him, not through just rituals, but through true relationship

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

😂😂

John nails it

Apparently people have crystal balls for homeruns, who knew

Hitting a baseball is widely considered to be the single hardest thing to do in all of sports

Let alone, a homerun

[John Hyslop @sloprules]

Buddy, just bet him NOT to hit a home run and post the slip.

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

Hey @FanaticsBook there has to be a better way.

Waiting for a code that never comes happening far too often now.

Log ins, withdrawals, why is there such an issue here?

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

Hey @vicblends you have got to save @JeffPassan here, we can’t have this

[Isaac Bassey @0xBassey]

Jeff Passan says Shohei Ohtani earns over $100 million a year off the field and helped the Dodgers become MLB’s first $1 billion revenue franchise

“Personally, with all of the advertisements, sponsorships, and stuff like that, it’s upward of $100 million.”

“The Los Angeles Dodgers are not the Los Angeles Dodgers—they are the Shohei Ohtani Shell Corporation.”

“Good for them. They saw what the Angels never did.”

“They understood that Ohtani himself is a monolith.”

“They saw the international possibilities in Japan.”

“They saw the business possibilities.”

“It’s everything—the tours, the tourists, the merchandise, the sponsorships, the whole kit and caboodle.”

“The Dodgers just last year became the first Major League Baseball franchise to have more than $1 billion in revenue in one year.”

“And they’re going to do it again this year

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

@joshuadasilva Let’s get it brother 🤝🏼

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

⚾️ +10588

-Love this 2 leg deep longshot, we get the ONLY 2 players in the first 3 early games that are over .818+ SLG vs the mix the last 15 PA at just tremendous value

-Haven’t shared a lot of plays with the TL recently so that’s the only 2 plays for early games I played

GL

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

Great observation, Abreu is right there too, hammers lefty’s, I’ll likely play him in a 2 leg, wrote his data and Spencer Jones as reverse split guys in today’s games

But gave slight edge to Wilson here on the lotto as over the last 3,5,10 starts for Jump he’s given up the bigger barrel and HR/FB % to RHB

The other 2 data points that jumped out was an 87.5% FAST% which is the fast swing rate and lastly the pull % as Contreras leads team at 68.8%, trying to stay away from that big center field

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

@EVFrenzy This is very strong love this all on my bases sheet too

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

Great observation, Abreu is right there too, hammers lefty’s, I’ll likely play him in a 2 leg, wrote his data and Spencer Jones as reverse split guys in today’s games

But gave slight edge to Wilson here on the lotto as over the last 3,5,10 starts for Jump he’s given up the bigger barrel and HR/FB % to RHB

The other 2 data points that jumped out was an 87.5% FAST% which is the fast swing rate and lastly the pull % as Contreras leads team at 68.8%, trying to stay away from that big center field

[Long Live Dolph 🐬 @amac937]

@parlayportal @PropFinderApp Why Contreras over Aubreu just curious?

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

@_King_Kendrickk @PropFinderApp Go to MLB tab
Click CHEATSHEETS
Click HR MATCHUPS
Then on the right side of page you’ll see HIGHLIGHTS
When you click that you can enter data you look for and color coat it

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

⚾️ +24413

-Playing 1 day game longshot HR lotto, sharing with the TL using FD 30% boost

-Some excellent day game data vs the mix for these 3

🔬 Researched using @PropFinderApp where you can use code PARLAYPORTAL for 30% off first month or annual plan

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

@cxrist1ann

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

..things that make you go, hmm

[Sox On 35th @SoxOn35th]

Will Venable came out to talk with Noah Schultz after Zach Bove had already done so.

As a result, Schultz has to leave the game.

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

My man @BigDawgBanna sees it

Was the very first straight I played today

Let’s get it

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

Sure here’s a very deep longshot, one my gals @pettyQueenBBW & @callmeauntie218 would appreciate

Good luck tonight everyone

[D @D2050089624850]

@parlayportal Friday night parlay for x tonight? 🙏

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

Good read 👇🏼

[Ballpark Pal @BallparkPal]

There is lots of evidence that the HR environment is different since the All-Star Break, but the exact cause is still unclear (long post, not AI, tldr at the bottom)

Usually when there's a significant change to the baseball, it shows up in distance/flight/drag data. While you can make a case the ball hasn't been flying as far as expected, that *is not* the main reason this time.

The clearest signal is that contact quality has suddenly gotten worse. Take a look at the chart below (14-day moving average). Expected-HRs-per-Ball-in-Play dropped out of normal variation right around the All-Star-Break. So what's in this number, and what does it mean?

It means: "Based on the physical characterstics of how the balls are getting hit (exit velocity, launch angle, direction), we should expect FEWER batted balls to result in home runs."

In other words, if you ONLY look at how the ball is leaving the bat as soon as it's hit, there are fewer batted balls that SHOULD end up going over the fence.

From there the analysis gets really messy. Unlike distance, there are wayyyy more factors that can contribute to worse contact quality (specifically worse HR quality).

- Exit velocity, launch angle & direction
- Pitch location, movement, velocity, shape, spin
- Bat speed, plane, angle
- Batter's approach / skill level

This is why it's hard to say for sure that a ball change occurred. But there are some general assertions that can be made, through analysis not shown here:

- Bat speed has not gone down
- Pitch velocity has not gone down
- Neither pitch quality nor pitch mix has changed in a way that should produce fewer home runs.
- Summer weather is still having a positive HR effect on the balls getting hit

From MLB's Drag Dashboard on Baseball Savant:

"The performance of the baseball is primarily driven by two factors: the coefficient of restitution (“COR”), which impacts the exit velocity of the ball off the bat, and the drag coefficient, which impacts how far a batted ball carries once struck. All else equal, an increase in COR will lead to greater exit velocities, while an increase in drag will decrease the carry distance. Together, these two properties have a significant impact on the run environment in Major League Baseball and on the home run rate, in particular."

Logically, and through analysis not included here, the best guess appears to be that a new ball was introduced around the All-Star Break that caused a decrease in COR, leading to slower exit velocities.

This is only a guess at this point, because of how complicated exit velocity is. But it does seem to be the best guess, and is the assumption Ballpark Pal is operating under in its projections.

TL;DR: The post-All-Star-Break drop in home runs appears to be driven more by worse contact off the bat than by reduced carry. Bat speed, pitch velocity/mix, and weather don’t explain the change. The hypothesis that Ballpark Pal is operating under is that a new baseball with lower COR - and slightly more drag - was introduced around the break, reducing exit velocity and HR-quality contact. That fits the data, but it is not proven.

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

😭

[Ty Collem @elicoleman85]

I totally forgot I had this +41250 3-man going…

Please Turang, just one time?

[ParlayPortal @parlayportal]

A year ago today, I became an advocate and affiliate for @PropFinderApp.

One of the things I’ve respected most over the past year is watching the team continue to reinvest in the product instead of chasing nonsense. They’ve stayed in their lane, listened to feedback and consistently made the platform better for the people who use it every day.

It’s been awesome to watch that kind of steady growth from the inside and I’m grateful to have played a small part in the journey. Excited to see what’s next.