Germany is in panic over Chinese companies taking over its markets at home, abroad and in China. Having spent quite some time in China in the 2010s, I can’t help but thinking back to the arrogance and quite frankly racism of German expat businesses people. Chinese engineers with Ivy League degrees speaking fluent English and German looked down upon by German engineers with a degree from some German university, unimpressive English and less than two sentences of Chinese. The Germans didn’t see it coming because they couldn’t imagine Chinese people becoming better at what they are doing than themselves. An industry insider told me at the time how keen Chinese entrepreneurs were to collaborate with German car companies on EV development. But all the Germans worried about was they are going to steal our IP. Well, here we are.
🧵 (8/8)
Still, if a software/AI opportunity like Simplex Holdings arises at a reasonable price, technology is a very interesting sector that I think should be part of every portfolio 💼
🧵 (7/8)
I have zero doubt about the long-term potential of AI ✅, but right now there is too much money in the sector. I currently focus more on areas like healthcare that get overlooked and benefit from demographic tailwinds 🏥
@stocksprofesso I'm also long $THC but for the sake of validation, is it an overreaction or are there very valid concerns regarding Medicaid/Medicare making such a drop justifiable?
🧵(4/4)
Regarding future capital allocation opportunities, I think increasing the position sizes of BMW and Tenet Healthcare looks interesting right now, given current valuations, as well as reducing margin levels, directly or indirectly
🧵(1/4)
This month is kind of interesting. One might think with the American stock market rising so strongly in the last month, one might outperform with a moderately leveraged portfolio, but actually not:
-3.5% vs. 9.4% S&P 500 (all in €)
🧵(3/4)
In terms of fundamentals, we had solid earnings from Tenet Healthcare $THC in a softening environment and very decent results from Simplex Holdings (up around 8% from my purchase price)
🚨 THE FOOD CRISIS IS COMING
The three chemicals that literally feed the world — Sulphur, Urea, and Ammonia — are ALL heavily sourced from the Middle East and shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
With shipping paralyzed by the conflict, fertilizer shortages are already crushing harvests in India, Brazil, Indonesia, and beyond.
🧵(2/2)
With the current situation unfolding in Iran, I think more escalation is likely, which could even lead to an economic crisis, So I'll act with caution in the coming months
🧵(1/2)
I have a strong feeling that volatile times lie ahead, so let's dive into the March recap:
Thanks to Tokio Marine and United Therapeutics, the portfolio kept pretty stable this month, despite some other losses:
+0,4% vs. -3,8% S&P 500 (all in €)