Philip Pilkington

Macroeconomist/investment professional. Author: The Collapse of Global Liberalism. Host of the Multipolarity podcast, @MultipolarPod.

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Great to appear on @peakprosperity with @chrismartenson . This is a very comprehensive discussion of what is going on with broken global markets right now and where it is heading: nowhere good. We are racing toward a major global crisis. Link to video in comment below. 🔗👇

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Me hanging out in the “third world” while complete losers in the West try to secure a new NGO social media contract in their hopeless, collapsing societies. 😎

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

I was told this is the third world

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Gold Rips, Stocks Dip As Hedgies Flip-Back To Selling Semis; Here's What Just Happened... https://t.co/F4uPkDMDll

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Iran will be a major regional power that permanently hate the US. The risk has always been that, as the US winds down its empire it becomes as hated and irrelevant as Britain due to same dynamics. Sad if they go this route. 🇺🇸🇮🇷

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian:

No matter how much I think about it, I cannot find any logical reason why they killed our Leader, our commanders, and our scientists.

Many of our commanders and scientists who were killed did not even own a home.

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

I’m just glad these hedge funds will be cooperating more closely with the US government in these times of unheard-of economic risk. 😮‍💨

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Hackers Launch 'Vishing' Cyberattacks Against Major Hedge Funds https://t.co/j0zcSlQ8XW

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Treasury comms is starting to crack. Watch this space. 🇺🇸🏦

[Wall Street Mav @WallStreetMav]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just nuked WSJ Nick Timiraos from orbit.

The WSJ's Nick Timiraos was well known for being Jerome Powell's top brown noser, willing to write whatever Jerome wanted.

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Future Hungarian Prime Minister @_OrbanAnita tries to cool the lunatic ramblings and “shotgun spread” diplomacy of @magyarpeterMP to stop him destroying the country. Anita will be PM within 18 months. ⏳

[Hungarian Conservative @hu_conservative]

🇭🇺⚡️🇷🇺 One day after RIA Novosti taunted Péter Magyar over Hungary’s nuclear-energy crisis, Anita Orbán struck a more conciliatory tone, saying Budapest still seeks pragmatic ties with Moscow. The exchange captured the tension at the heart of Tisza’s strategy: breaking with the close alignment that characterized Viktor Orbán’s leadership without giving up vital Russian oil, gas and nuclear cooperation👇
https://t.co/2P7uZQTrAQ

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

By an Act of God, the energy crisis hits Hungary first. No doubt the Big Guy can see exactly what the new government is: a non-European dictatorship run by a mentally ill person. This mess is going to unwind extremely quickly. 🇭🇺

[Hungary Today @HungaryToday]

The fuel retailer has introduced nationwide conservation measures in Hungary.
https://t.co/ADH838Qs05

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

In other words, the US needs to lift the blockade, lift the sanctions, give the Iranians the sanctioned funds, and only then, would the Strait of Hormuz reopen under Iranian control.

So we are back to square 1.

Fars:

Under What Conditions Will the Strait of Hormuz Be Reopened?

A source close to the negotiating team: Contrary to some speculations and media reports, the lifting of a limited number of sanctions by the U.S. Treasury is related to the interactions between the Iraqi government and Washington, and has no connection to the Iran-U.S. agreement.

The United States, by violating the Islamabad agreement, disrupted the established traffic flow in the Strait. In addition to military attacks and the creation of a naval blockade, it hindered access to Iran's blocked funds by lifting exemptions for oil and petrochemical exports. The return to normal conditions is contingent upon Iran implementing measures in the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States genuinely and tangibly fulfilling its commitments.

This informed source emphasized that if the agreement between Iran and Oman is finalized, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will require separate arrangements that also include the fulfillment of U.S. commitments.

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

An Iranian news story from six hours ago. Boy oh boy, do the Iranians have the Americans over a barrel right now… 🇺🇸🇮🇷

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

Iran also says that it has received "messages" from the US indicating that Washington is ready to return to its MoU pledges (most likely meaning lifting the naval blockade and oil sanctions). The new Oman-Iran arrangements would be valid for 2-4 months.

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Yeah… that’s not “increasing fears of hacking”. Lol. 🇵🇰🇨🇳

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Pakistan Army Ditches WhatsApp for WeChat Over Hacking Fears

Pakistan Army has instructed personnel to stop using WhatsApp for official communications, mandating a transition to China's WeChat platform due to heightened concerns about hacking.

https://t.co/09HCWFOe18

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

US media: “A deal on the Strait will be signed this week.”

Iranian media:

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

US is just exporting product to the rest of the world while it suppresses prices. It’s a giant physical subsidy straight from the SPR to refiners with limited capacity. 🇺🇸🛢️

[John Kemp @JKempEnergy]

U.S. oil refiners struggle to satisfy fuel demand amid foreign wars

U.S. oil refiners reported record profits in the second quarter as fuel production in the rest of the world was severely disrupted by the wars between the United States and Iran and between Ukraine and Russia.

Partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz coupled with Ukraine’s intensifying attacks on Russia’s refineries cut fuel output worldwide, raising margins for other refiners still able to operate.

In response, U.S. refiners boosted their exports to a record rate, but were unable to increase output by the same amount, leading to a severe depletion of domestic fuel stocks, especially for gasoline and to a lesser extent diesel ...

This is a short extract from my newsletter emailed to clients earlier today. If you would like to read my newsletters in full, three times a week, you can subscribe via my website https://t.co/aW1Xb1tAI9

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

There have been rumours for years that the Americans considered using tactical nuclear weapons if they ever got into a conflict with China. It now appears that they’re admitting as much. Any conflict over Taiwan would now almost certainly result in full-scale nuclear war. 🇺🇸🇹🇼

[Clash Report @clashreport]

NEW: The Pentagon is drafting a classified nuclear strategy that would place greater emphasis on the potential use of shorter-range tactical nuclear weapons in a regional conflict with China or Russia.

Source: NBC News

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

@IndiScipio My guess is gold maybe…

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

This is a strong indication that the US dollar’s structural hegemony is broken. If there is a crisis I strongly suspect there will be no “flight to safety”. Yields will rise, capital will flee - just like in any other economy. 🇺🇸💵

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The relationship between stocks and bonds has completely flipped:

The 90-day correlation between the 10Y Treasury Yield and the S&P 500 is down to -0.48, its most negative reading since 1999.

This means that rising Treasury yields have recently been associated with weaker stock market performance, while falling yields have supported equities.

The current reading is even more negative than the 2022 bear market low of -0.42.

For context, before the 2020 pandemic, the correlation was positive for over a decade, with Treasury yields and equities often rising together as higher yields reflected stronger economic growth.

Currently, the negative correlation suggests investors are viewing higher yields less as a sign of economic strength and more as a result of inflation uncertainty and fiscal concerns.

All eyes are on the bond market.

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Vessels in the Red Sea keep being hit. None of this is opening up any time soon. Everything is fake. 🛢️

[Egypt's Intel Observer @EGYOSINT]

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Houthis say they struck the Saudi oil tanker NCC Wafa (IMO: 9688348) with multiple ballistic missiles in the northern Red Sea off Yanbu, claiming a direct hit.

They added that the strike brings the total number of Saudi oil tankers they have targeted since imposing their maritime blockade on July 22 to eight, while claiming 29 Saudi oil tankers have been forced to turn back or reroute in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea.

The Houthis also said they will continue targeting Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea to prevent them from transiting the area.

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Iranian media: No discussions are taking place that involve the US. 🇺🇸🇮🇷😵‍💫

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Iranian news today: the Strait will remain closed until the US pull their forces out. 🇺🇸🇮🇷

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

Iranian news today: the Strait will remain closed until the US pull their forces out. 🇺🇸🇮🇷

[Philip Pilkington @philippilk]

@HumbertoAra2601 @magyarpeterMP She is completely discredited. Epic.