The Numbers

A factivist seeking truth for fact’s sake. Retweets = invitation for epic game of battleship. Chicago, Minneapolis, Milwaukee. Shared by 3 concerned citizens.

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Bill Ackman says investors are repeating the same mistake from 2000 by chasing hot stocks and ignoring quality.

Here are 10 quality stocks trading at attractive valuations:

1. $META

5-Year Revenue CAGR: 15.2%
Forward P/E: 18
Consensus Price Target: $826
Implied Upside: 39%

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Private Credit

Another one!! Blackstone, which manages $1.3 Trillion in Assets, just restricted withdrawals from its flagship private credit fund 🤯👀

[Healing Tai Chi @GymBr_o]

Repair installation tips.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 Yesterday I wrote that all four historic market risks – inflation, liquidity, tech, credit – are simultaneously present for the first time in 50 years.

Today let's zoom out further. Way out.

This chart shows 225 years of US stock prices, inflation-adjusted. It reveals something most modern investors have never seen, because the data simply isn't long enough in our living memory.

Roughly every 60 years, the market completes a full secular cycle:

– 1802 → 1857: 50-year rise, ended with US secession war and 5 years down
– 1857 → 1920: 63-year cycle, ended with WWI, post-war inflation and 11 years down
– 1920 → 1981: 61-year cycle, ended with oil shocks, Vietnam, stagflation and 13 years down
– 1981 → ?: the current cycle

If the pattern holds, the next secular top arrives around 2028. Followed by a 10-15 year inflation-driven drawdown that bottoms somewhere between 2039 and 2043.

The recipe is always the same

Each secular ending has three ingredients:
1. Persistent inflation
2. Geopolitical conflict (war, deglobalization, empire transition)
3. A speculative melt-up in the dominant sector of the era

The 1850s had railroads.
The 1910s had electrification and trusts.
The 1970s had the Nifty Fifty.
The 2020s have AI.

We're already two of three in 2026. Inflation has returned. Deglobalization is accelerating. The AI melt-up is the missing piece, and it's underway.

Why this matters

The playbook that worked from 1981 to today was defined by one regime: falling rates, globalization, passive flows, US tech dominance.

That regime ends with every 60-year cycle. Historically, the next decade rewards a completely different set of assets.

What worked in the cycle just ending:
– Long-duration growth
– Passive index investing
– US large-cap concentration
– Tech

What has worked through every secular transition since 1800:
– Cash-flowing businesses with pricing power
– Real assets and infrastructure
– Defensive, durable, boring
– Active stock selection

The uncomfortable part

Every cycle felt unique to the people living through it.

The 1920s investor was certain the new technologies of his age were different from the railroads of 1857.

The 1968 investor was certain stagflation couldn't happen in the modern economy.

They were all wrong in the same way.

If we're somewhere near the top of cycle four, the quality stocks being mocked today aren't dead money.

They're early.

[Ted @TedPillows]

Stocks are dumping.
Gold is dumping.
Silver is dumping.
Crypto is dumping.
Bonds are dumping.
Even Oil is dumping.

If everything is dumping, where the hell is money going?

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Besides the gold Cycle count, the tell is Silver. It never holds up like this 5 months after a blowoff unless it's preparing for the next move. In a bull market silver advances via blowoff moves generally 12-24 months apart.

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

The US has lost ~75,000 manufacturing jobs since Trump took office…

We’re gonna need more AI data centers.

[Dave Collum @DavidBCollum]

My base case is that in the next 20-40 years the equity markets on an inflation-adjusted basis will come back and test the 2000 highs...

[Banana3 @Banana3Stocks]

$NOW

ServiceNow about to rip ass cheeks 👀

“Descending Wedge” is a bullish pattern 😘

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The world always feels chaotic in real time.

The stock market only looks resilient in hindsight.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

There is nothing more technically bullish than a 40-year resistance level turning into major support.

That is exactly where gold miners sit today.

Act accordingly.

https://t.co/7Y87Aem7Ag

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

HSBC Warns Of Commodity "Super-Squeeze" As Goldman Hikes Copper Forecasts https://t.co/Nwp1qbeYCS

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Housing Market

Home Sellers have given up as 5.8% of listings were pulled in April, the fastest pace since the Covid shutdown in March 2020 🤯👀

[NutBush Villain @nutbushvillain]

@HunterBiden

[Ashton Invests @Ashton_1nvests]

A few stocks are down big YTD, but I think the market may be missing the bigger picture.

Not every beaten-down stock is cheap.

But some names are starting to look very interesting if the business keeps executing.

Here are a few I’m watching:

1/ $ADBE

YTD: -21.70%
Current price: ~$256.24
P/E: ~14.9x

Adobe is being treated like AI is going to destroy the business. I think that may be too negative. This is still one of the most important creative software companies in the world, and AI could end up becoming an upsell opportunity instead of just a threat.

[Ashton Invests @Ashton_1nvests]

If I was building a portfolio for 2030, these are the businesses I would want to understand first.

Financial platform: $SOFI
AI compute: $AMD
Cloud + ads: $AMZN
Search + AI + Waymo: $GOOGL
Enterprise AI workflows: $NOW
Latin America digital economy: $MELI
Real assets/infrastructure: $BN
Consumer healthcare: $HIMS
Healthcare disruption: $OSCR
High-risk social turnaround: $SNAP
AI marketing: $ZETA

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

Looking for the next Jensen Huang pick?

Look no further... $NOW

[Bram Van Genechten @BramVGenechten]

Mastercard now officially trading at its lowest valuation in +10y.

$MA

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

Sector relative strength charts:

Tech up, everything else down.

This won't last forever.

[Bitcoin Teddy @Bitcoin_Teddy]

Corporation: "We made $4B but spent $3.9B so we only owe taxes on $100M."
Government: "Totally reasonable."

You: "I made $60K but spent $58K on survival."
Government: "You owe taxes on $60K."
You: "That's not—"
Government: "File by May 15."