Predict Time @PredictTime_ - Twitter Profile

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14 days ago

INSIDE PREDICTION MARKETS. WHO SETS THE ODDS? Episode 4 of PredictTime is live, and you'll hear it from the person who knows everything about how prices are formed in crypto and prediction markets. @amomot86, founder and CEO of @PeanutTrade. We go deep into why every platform shows you a price but never the hidden hand behind it, and into the journey that took him from dropshipping to one of the top market makers in crypto Now he's building the prediction markets aggregator @doxawin. Everything you need to know about market making and the future of prediction markets is in this episode Win $300 by guessing in the comments the biggest market by volume on DOXA as of July 1, 2026: - register via the link: https://t.co/RnAPEWOdU1 - name the market and follow @predicttime_ and @doxawin the platform is currently in closed beta - and we're offering our viewers exclusive access Timecodes: 00:00 — Intro: market making in prediction markets 01:01 — Guest introduction 01:21 — ETH ICO 2014: investing in Vitalik's pitch at $0.30 03:38 — Life before crypto: selling goods and first mining 05:58 — Buying the first two Bitcoins 06:31 — 2014 Telegram chats and contact with Vitalik 09:24 — Staying in touch with Vitalik today 10:25 — When he sold ETH and lessons from past cycles 11:47 — Remy project: $20M to solve the password problem 15:59 — Biometrics and Face ID - do they solve passwords? 17:20 — What's changed across 4 crypto cycles 18:49 — Predatory market making and toxic environment 20:34 — Why he chose market making 22:19 — Market maker tricks: pump-and-dump schemes 25:56 — Competitor M&A: why they stayed independent 29:09 — Pivot to prediction markets: long tail and market structure 31:11 — The team: 60 people, hiring in Ukraine 34:35 — Hardest and easiest roles to hire for 37:49 — Timing problem: bull/bear cycles and team building 39:19 — "Trust your gut" decisions vs quant strategies 41:55 — Why bet on prediction markets instead of memes 44:35 — Idea: tokenizing real estate via prediction markets 46:46 — Risk of giving away ideas to competitors 47:21 — 150+ projects: which one he'd tell his grandkids about 49:37 — 60-second explainer: how Peanut Trade does market making 52:04 — Technical challenges: oracles, liquidity, rules across venues 54:27 — Structure of Yes/No order books 57:00 — Example: $1,000 moved probability by 1.5% 59:19 — Sports vs geopolitics: different liquidity dynamics 59:44 — Technical breakdown: why Yes+No isn't always $1 01:00:46 — Cross-venue arbitrage in 10 milliseconds 01:04:23 — Top 3 problems in prediction markets and possible solutions 01:10:13 — When he realized the potential of prediction markets (2014 → 2024) 01:13:28 — 2024 prediction came true: fake accounts and no alt season 01:18:00 — Best and worst trades (Iran strike and Zelensky market) 01:19:58 — Legal risks for prediction markets 01:21:48 — Threat of Polymarket building its own market maker 01:23:35 — Meme season as this cycle's "alt season" 01:25:16 — AI in life and business: cutting costs on consulting 01:29:33 — AI agents on Polymarket: hype or reality? 01:33:00 — Will AI replace his job in 5 years? 01:33:41 — Market makers he respects (Jump, the Luna crash) 01:35:38 — Business as art and creativity 01:36:34 — "Fair market making" - a client's slogan 01:37:09 — Where is Web3 heading 01:41:21 — Bitcoin's next bull run prediction 01:42:59 — Does he still believe in crypto "cycles"? 01:46:26 — Innovation decline in Web3 and globally 01:48:24 — Global crisis: triggers and forecast 01:51:31 — The future of Peanut Trade in 2 years 01:52:44 — Quick-fire round: rapid predictions 01:55:10 — Closing, giveaway, and goodbye

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